Steve Nicandros (CEO) had 7 million shares at an average price of 60p – before the debt conversion in 2011. Shares in issue at that time was ca.72million.
After the bonds were converted to shares at 4p, SN's shareholding increased to 178M as he agreed to convert around US$12M in loan notes to new shares. He also acquired more shares from DDJ Capital at 0.48p in early 2012. So all in all his average is at least ca.7-8p now (if not more).
I reckon he has invested north of US$15 million of his own money. His investment is currently worth ca.US$2.5 million.
I believe he is looking for at least 20p per share, which would have made his investment and time, worthwhile and would be worth close to US$36M.
At 20p per share, we are looking at a market cap of GB£520M - which against the assets and cost recovery pool of US$250M is easily achievable.
“Commencement of production from its Mtsarekhavi gas field in second quarter of 2014, together with periodic access to the SEDA facility (see discussion in Notes 1 and4) should provide positive cash flows for the foreseeable future.”
“Mobilization to the next planned location is underway and drilling of well #34 is expected to commence before the end of September. The well will take approximately fifteen days to reach total depth. “
“Recently concluded internal studies have now increased gas in place estimates from as much as approximately 1.2 tcf to as much as approximately 11 tcf, with as much as approximately 9 tcf of recoverable gas possible from reservoir targets found between 300 metres and 5,000 metres in depth.”
9 tcf recoverable is worth ca.30 billion US dollars.
the maybe a seller in the background but they are selling in the 90s if they wanted the seventies they could have dumped a load and dropped it. That said the mms may drop (though my opinion is they won't) this week though if they do I would expect it to be brief. I would expect to see another rise to the 1.1 level soon and maybe a settleing back again. this sort of trading does very much feel like news next week. There appears to be a lot of appetite at .9 -.97 for the share. All of this is pure conjecture, but look at the tape - that is what the trading says to me
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