Red Emperor Share Chat (RMP)

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/182165-ex-lawmaker-lobbies-to-bring-conocophillips-back-to-somalia

In the past they have paid good money to  try to persuade ConocoPhillips to return to Somalia. 
They also approached the other companies to rekindle interest in returning.
According to that Times article it looks like they have succeeded.
Why is that success now being used by some, to suggest that it is game over for RMP and partners?

Without the/an agreed Constitution there is no united Somalia for the central government to govern.

The only reason that the central government can beat its chest and do Tarzan impersonations is because all parties have agreed on the current constitution. Change it without agreement and there is no longer a united Somalia. The central government is in no better position to impose its will on the northern states, than it has been in the last 20 years. Which means that IMO "big oil" has to acknowledge existing newer contracts and work with the companies that hold them and their host regions. Mogadishu isn't in any position to enforce its will.....in practice.
Question is how keen in practice are the majors on forcing their claims against local opposition?
Easier to work with the regional governments.

Their Constitution says that the new agreements will be honoured. Puntland and Somaliland and any other autonomous region are unlikely to vote to change it otherwise, which means that if the central government insists, then Somaliland and Puntland will likely do their own thing. As Puntland has already stated.

Which leaves " big oil" back at square one.

Who knows, Puntland and Somaliland being in the same boat, may even cooperate.

Extract from the times article:

Mr Mohamed admits there are fissures. He wants to change the constitution – crafted at great expense by Somali lawmakers and UN legal experts – to accommodate an amended version of the 2008 petroleum law, which stipulates that the central government will determine oil deals. “We want oil companies to come into the country . . . but companies are taking huge risks, some of them deliberate.”

Last AOI presentation from may.

NO more mention of seismics in the first half of 2013.
What happened? Why the delay?

NO TIMEFRAME for upcoming drill and seismics.
You are left with end of the licence period October 2015!

The RED FLAG was Horn changing the report on Sedar in november and REMOVING the comment on seismic program first half of 2013 and the talks with puntland government about Nugaal drill.

No danger of a drill this year, 2014 at best but even that is now more than doubtful.
The delays are probably due to the political uncertainty considering the Somali gov strongly insists that
the puntland licence is NULL AND VOID as stated in the Financial Times few days back.

http://www.bartamaha.com/somalia-oil-thrown-on-the-fire-57441/

GLA

De-ramper ready for Monday:

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ces/9795707/CES-2013-The-top-10-weirdest-things-on-show.html?frame=2448660

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-05_AOIP.pdf

Page 12 shows two Sakson Rigs...anyone recognise the photos?
Understood rig is demobilised, but it hasn't been stated that it has left puntland. So in storage somewhere?

Page 24 States that they are acquiring additional seismic, and pursuing drilling projects in Nugaal.......game still on.

people forget if puntland revoke any licence and give it to another party they would have refund rmp's spending on the blocks. im sure rmp have spent £15million plus on these blocks now. as some derampers say the blocks are null and invalid then the puntland government owe the money spent. i still think a nugaal drill will happen in 12months

and in Somalia. On the verge of massive gain here at RMP

looks like confidence is coming back to aim

Nice blue day today,thats four out of five this week ,keep it up rmp,steady rise to end of month news