Shares rise on the expectation of news!! Everybody were expecting imminent news of maybe multiple discoveries .much higher than normal volume in first hour of trading led to herd instinct kicking in !! Wow where would it have gone to?
For the avoidance of doubt (please refer to iii or discussthemarket), I never intended to assume that it will be a “duster”.
It has just been mentioned, with contrarian analogy (in case of CHAR, price was falling!), that a RNS written on the corner of a table, could not be considered as relevant and should be questionable when the company (issuing it) is not the operator.
As a matter of fact, it is quite interesting that FOGL did not communicate when SP was falling… Only when SP was (partially) recouping (some of) the (substantial) investors losses, FOGL issued this debatable RNS.
Consequently, I strongly doubt about the reality, content and (misleading) wording of Friday RNS!
i would put to you, that unless nbl have confirmed (formally) a find in the targets or an assessed find outside of these zones, then fogl rns is 100% correct. i can not relaisiticly see how a find outside of the risked and assessed zones could be evaluated to RNS'able levels in days by either nbl or fogl.
clearly the alternative it is all fluff and whispers only - anyone trading on whispers are very brave in my view.
it would be great to see an rns in the morning (or would it!!)
Hydrocarbon bearing sands maybe but it's not oil. My view is to sell because it's not an oil discovery. Not sure it's a viable trap just yet, but it definately aint oil. Maybe condensate.They'll be over the hole till around wednesday i think. rns by the end of the week.
sorry to post against my own post - and this was a post on friday evening.
i have noted posts on the other BB. some are interesting...
i have contemplating the issue of what is happening, and can now see a a picture i think is the case (nut of course this is only my view - i have no evidence to back this up).
my second point of my prior post refereed to 3d seismic and the ability (and time and cost) to focus into secondary targets.
for what it is worth i think the drill has encountered HC, but above the target zones. given the size of the main targets to me this is very much possible. a "potential" of say 20 or even 100M barrels oip could have been discounted for detailed assessment and hence unrisked ( i think i am correct to say the prime assessment has been by fogl / nbl rather than 3rd party CPR'ed).
if i am correct this tells us nothing about humpy - except reduced risk that it will be oil rather than gas or condy. this is only my take.
i would also re-iterate that fogl will only know what nbl tell them, and this could be very little.
so i do not believe fogl have lied, but also i do not believe there is smoke without fire. however this does not, in my view, give us any significant info on the real targets.
i will again not be trading up or down until we get real news.
hope this is hopeful.
p.s. the "tom & jerry" UK labour show is a joke. fortunately i am old enough to recall Mr Foot - he was a joke also, and had no impact on UK defending the rights of dependent territories rights.
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