izstarPosts: 277
Observation
| Opinion: | No Opinion |
| Price: | 2.48 |
further
7 Mar '13
dilution will happen if they can't find a partner, their drugs remain promising as £6m won't see them through to market by a very long way. If sp hits 1.5 then that will mean this stock is doomed - can't see it dropping much lower given how much it has dropped and the possibility, some might say remote possibility, that a deal will be done at some point. Profile of RPL still looks reasonably good and VRP 700 had excellent trial. Anyway difficult to know what is really going on as only an investor at the company
daysleeperPosts: 407
Observation
| Opinion: | No Opinion |
| Price: | 2.41 |
SP
6 Mar '13
If and when the SP breaks 1.5p, I might buy back in again.
More Trials...
6 Mar '13
= More cash burn...?
How're the books balanced here? Possible further shares issue and dilution to fund further, wider trials? Not de-ramping, genuine question...
:)
izstarPosts: 277
Observation
| Opinion: | No Opinion |
| Price: | 2.40 |
The problem
6 Mar '13
is we don't have the detail behind the results nor would I realise the significance or otherwise of it if I did. If the results did show promise then surely this must be relevant to the future development of RPL as it distinguishes it from its competitors - I suspect the suggestion given by bryso_g is right - it was not a large enough study but they do know more about the drug now it was certainly far from being a failure. I guess we had all hoped they would be stunning results that would deliver a deal - time will tell but no choice but to hold - insane to sell at this absurdly low price. Not buying anymore though! GL to all
bryso_g
6 Mar '13
Not sure it was worth saying twice....and dont agree either. If they have narrowly missed an end point then more testing makes sense, if youre nowhere near the endpoint then maybe time to stop wasting money.
Saying tge two positions are the same is moronic.
bryso_gPosts: 254
Off Topic
| Opinion: | No Opinion |
| Price: | 2.48 |
Missing primary end point
6 Mar '13
Saying the trial Narrowly missed the primary end point is dressing up a failure as a positive. Statistical significance thresholds distinguish between events that are likely to happen by chance and those which are not. Eg ten coin tosses all showing heads is statistically significant. theres a good chance its a double header. 7 out of ten showing heads isnt. You wouldn't say ah but it only just narrowly missed the end point of 8 out of ten so I still believe it's a double header. Perhaps the board feel that if the trial were bigger they'd hit their end point but until they do that trial narrowly missing should not be considered any better than monumentally failing! A fail is a fail. Personally I think all the recent trials here have been too small. I feel it's time for them to get on with bigger trials to prove the drug works or otherwise.
HailMaryPosts: 559
Off Topic
| Opinion: | No Opinion |
| Price: | 2.48 |
Bryso
5 Mar '13
SNG missed there primary endpoint but there share shot up. Also CEO comments seemed the trial was a success
bryso_gPosts: 254
Off Topic
| Opinion: | No Opinion |
| Price: | 2.48 |
Missing primary end point
5 Mar '13
Saying the trial Narrowly missed the primary end point is dressing up a failure as a positive. Statistical significance thresholds distinguish between events that are likely to happen by chance and those which are not. Eg ten coin tosses all showing heads is statistically significant. theres a good chance its a double header. 7 out of ten showing heads isnt. You wouldn't say ah but it only just narrowly missed the end point of 8 out of ten so I still believe it's a double header. Perhaps the board feel that if the trial were bigger they'd hit their end point but until they do that trial narrowly missing should not be considered any better than monumentally failing! A fail is a fail. Personally I think all the recent trials here have been too small. I feel it's time for them to get on with bigger trials to prove the drug works or otherwise.
mathsprof
5 Mar '13
Not sure its bad results that have done for this share - up until now most results positive and still seems to have lost value.
Nothing to do now but hold.
mathsprofPosts: 788
Off Topic
| Opinion: | No Opinion |
| Price: | 2.48 |
be real
5 Mar '13
If you invest in this type of company, expect the poor results along with some good ones. Expect some shares to halve in value and some to double. Overall you should be up more than the average portfolio, I reckon.
Since the start of the year my bio portfolio is up, in spite of large losses on VRP. It's impossible to tell which promising drug will actually make it, so don't blame the BOD when the trials don't do what they hoped. I'll still be around to recommend VRP next year, if they're still around!