We do not know what went on in the Arbitration, and what the Uzbeks dug up, or even forced out of local employees, maybe under duress.
The concern I have, and explains why I still maintain that zero is a possibility, albeit very low, was that as I understood, Oxus bought into another company at the start. Now whilst I am sure that Oxus themselves have been honest, how about that previous venture, and if dishonesty was found, how much credence will the Arbiters give to it? We do not have research on that, and we overlook that the corruption in Metal Tech came out at a late stage, and the ruling on validity of the claim was only made at the very end. Whilst OXS were given approval to submit their arbitration, who knows what was brought out in court?
On the other hand, if the Uzbeks found nothing, then maybe they were just trying to hang minor offences on OXS, which in their mentality would be sufficient to scupper any deal. After all they do it all the time in their own country.
My feeling is still for a large award, but one in the range from zero upwards, most likely in the range $100 to $200 million. I would be happy with that.
I've been reading this for a few hours today as I wanted to get a a full picture of the level of alleged bribery that in effect lost the case for Metal-Tech. I was surprised by the amount of money involved (at least $3 million) and how blatant the bribery was.
In effect Metal-Tech paid large sums of money to three 'consultants' and when asked for documentary proof of what these three consultants did they came up with a cock and bull story and very few facts or paperwork to substantiate what they said.
RS, from what I have seen, is a very intelligent and honourable man and I cannot believe that he would enter into any kind of similar agreement. I believe this is why the Uzbeks have gone down the espionage line as well as environmental failings (which they also did with Metal-Tech).
you will be expert enough to realise that the rational market assumption, that underpins nearly all economic models, is in fact violated by all modern markets. It wasn't difficult to achieve ... throw inspeculative derivatives in,, allow CDS circular nsurance pozi schemes, and naked shorting into the mix ... recipe for very irrational and manipulated markets. IMHO.
Thus even the experts might consider a blind poker game like this looks a good bet. :) ( only half joking)
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