I am a holder of WRL and has traded AEX in the past. What surprises me greatly is that the market is putting similar value on the two companies, despite (in my view) very different cash flow profile and financial risk profile. If I get this right:
1. AEX is barely able to keep the company afloat beyond the loan repayment in July. 2. The exploration commitments on Ruvuma (4 wells @ usd 10-15 mill a piece?) by end 2016 requires massive asset dilution or equity dilution (plus additional commitments in Nuyuni). 3. AEX has pledged Kiliwani North as collateral for the Ruvuma exploration commitment, most likely limiting the options available for monetizing the Kiliwany North cash flow.
In my mind AEX is a house of cards that requires a lot of glue to withstand unforeseen events, the glue most likely being attractive farm-out deals on either Ruvuma or Nuyuni. The massive reduction in cash flow generation that potential partners are experiencing now is hardly good news for AEX farm-out efforts. The same goes for the increasing risk profile in all energy related loan portfolios around. So, although (in theory) onshore natural gas in Tanzania should be shielded from the imploding oil prices, the financial risk profile of AEX is not.
WRL on the other hand has full control over their assets (nothing pledged to anyone), has signed the GSA and should see massive cash flow from their Tanzanian assets over the next few years. And they have the option to build a significant cash position should they decide to reduce the exploration risk in Mozambique.
Who knows why Tiptop just slipped in July, Patrick. But, as you can see, any rational questions or discussion on this board is drowned out by the rampers. We even have a decent poster actually apologising earlier for asking reasonable questions.
Anyway, I see most energy companies are doing ok today on the back of positive employment data from the US and a hope that the EU will do something about the floundering Euro. By 'doing Ok' I mean breaking even. This oil price crisis is having a devastating effect on share prices. I wouldn't be overly concerned for Aminex (providing it overcomes the issues which have been highlighted) as its main product will be gas but the sentiment towards all things energy seems very negative right now. I expect that to change in H2.
I share your views this is what we all are looking for, I am 100% sure we are being looked at by some with a view to take over,but everything MUST be in order before that happens,this takes time an hurdles to climb,so we sit and wait, dream and get frustrated, but this is the name of the game.I am sure in time this will come good (very good) but we still have many up's and down's to go through. Mouse
Some speculation or atleast mooted on the BBs is the current market cap in relation to our asset, acreage and potential. I for one can see a mid tier or even a major (no shortage in the area) coming along and buying us up - similar to the Cove Deal. Now even if we had a low ball offer say £300M then that is a very healthy return on investment for those buying in now
Tanzania wants the gas as much if not more than we want the share price to shoot up,what gets me big time is we seem to get important news from well informed and researched posters and not from the BOD or YJ's,let's have a red dot with new's, good or bad let us know, long term investors will stay here because we feel it is a great investment, others will leave to other pickings. Mouse
A few months ago when I suggested that whilst gas might (big might) begin to issue by February/March, it would take a month or two for the notoriously bad payers of Tanzania to process Aex payments, so Aex was looking at April/May at the very earliest for any form of revenue, I was slated by you and others here. Now you slip in a comment like 'The important thing is we are up and running by July'!
Mind you I was slated 12 months ago when I said the GSA, which was waiting for the ink to dry, had not yet been signed. Same thing 11 months ago, 10 months ago, 9 months ago.....
Aex, as I have always said, has potential but nothing like the ridiculous valuations being suggested for months by some people here. Anyone care to re-post the Christmas share price predictions of some of the posters here (many of whom are becoming more and more conspicuous by their absence).
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