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Aminex Share Chat (AEX)



Share Price: 1.825Bid: 1.80Ask: 1.85Change: 0.05 (+2.82%)Riser - Aminex
Spread: 0.05Spread as %: 2.78%Open: 1.775High: 1.85Low: 1.775Yesterday’s Close: 1.775


Share Discussion for Aminex (AEX)


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Kimosabi
Posts: 87
Answer
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.18
View Thread (6)
RE: Financing
8 Jan '15
Aminex has made progress in clearing debts through the sale of US Assets and part share of Kiwani rights to Solo. By March expect Tanazania operation will be cash generative making future financing easier and make us an attractive proposition for a farm-in partner. The icing on the cake is that rig costs are rapidly falling: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/oil-price-slump-brings-benefit-of-lower-rig-costs-for-explorers.html Maybe there is a cash strapped rig operator out there who is looking for a share of our pie. All in all prospects are looking bright for Aminex.
 
donkiddick
Posts: 1,917
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.18
Aex
8 Jan '15
agree this is no market for uncertainty . GSA and CPR well overdue.
I suspect something might be going on behind the scenes . well I hope so .Unless things all come into place we are as it stands to day still in a very vulnerable position , hence those who are risk averse are keeping well clear .
You still have to be v quite brave to invest here today . That might change quite soon , but none of us PI,s can be sure . If Solo bottle it, the GSA is on unfavourable terms ( can not believe its not out yet ! ) and CPR falls short and there is infect no serious farm out interest (as we all hope there is ) quite literally we are doomed. Hence c 2p sp today . I really do think the AEX PR machine is very poor and we do very little in terms of proactively promoting ourselves . Why nothing on Egypt yet ? wasn,t a 2nd well to be spudded shortly . Hopefully not long to wait now but its always delays and a lack of news . GLTA
patrickd369
Posts: 2,824
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.18
View Thread (5)
RE: July ?
8 Jan '15
to say the pipeline is 97% complete is one thing. But does this include the associated installations / pumping stations, valve chambers etc etc ? Not a deramp - an honest question, anyone ?
JoeCreed
Posts: 3,574
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.20
Kikadini
8 Jan '15
I share your concerns about fulfilling the Ruvuma psa.that is a lot of drilling to be done in less than two years.
I am hoping Aminex have potential farm in partner(s) lined up. If not, as you say, in the current investment climate it could prove difficult. We originally started to look at farming out Oct 2012....
I think it is perfectly possible something is in the pipeline, the board have put a lot of cash into this, that gives me some confidence. But this is by no means a cert until we get some concrete news. IMO.
TIPTOP
Posts: 5,266
Answer
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:2.20
View Thread (5)
RE: July ?
8 Jan '15
Crusty Pete, correct. July is when our loan requires settlement
. It would put us in a very strong position if we could have a cash flow from Kiliwani before then. However, most of the loan will be hopefully paid off through the sale of Kiliwani to Solo.
Kev, I have no problems with people giving their opinion on a subject as that stimulates debate, I just have no time for nastiness and bullying. Not that implying their has been any just stating my view.
TIPTOP
Posts: 5,266
Answer
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:2.20
kikadini
8 Jan '15
Nothing against Wentworth.....not a bad company and I agree it is undervalued but just rather vanilla in comparison to Aminex. They also hold much smaller percentage ownership of their acreage.Wentworth has blue sky estimates in Mozambique and Tanzania of circa 1.3 TCF if all their targets come in (that was before poor results at Tembo). Where as we have blue sky potential of circa 8 TCF and massive potential for further increases. Sheer scale of resource is the difference in comparison in my opinion.
RAZERWIRE
Posts: 122
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.23
july
8 Jan '15
I think this is why he is saying july, There is 6 month testing to be done when the pipe is complete
http://energytanzania.com/mtwara-dar-gas-pipeline-testing-arranged-january/
pyjamaboy
Posts: 614
Premium Chat Member
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.23
potential
8 Jan '15
Is good, rumuva CPR gas newsflow ,fill your boots
CrustyPete
Posts: 409
Answer
Opinion:Buy
Price:2.23
View Thread (5)
RE: July ?
8 Jan '15
Why July? Loan payments and financing...... We need the cash flow provided by Kilwani to fund next stage.
Kikadini
Posts: 6
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.23
View Thread (6)
Financing
8 Jan '15
I am a holder of WRL and has traded AEX in the past. What surprises me greatly is that the market is putting similar value on the two companies, despite (in my view) very different cash flow profile and financial risk profile. If I get this right:

1. AEX is barely able to keep the company afloat beyond the loan repayment in July.
2. The exploration commitments on Ruvuma (4 wells @ usd 10-15 mill a piece?) by end 2016 requires massive asset dilution or equity dilution (plus additional commitments in Nuyuni).
3. AEX has pledged Kiliwani North as collateral for the Ruvuma exploration commitment, most likely limiting the options available for monetizing the Kiliwany North cash flow.

In my mind AEX is a house of cards that requires a lot of glue to withstand unforeseen events, the glue most likely being attractive farm-out deals on either Ruvuma or Nuyuni. The massive reduction in cash flow generation that potential partners are experiencing now is hardly good news for AEX farm-out efforts. The same goes for the increasing risk profile in all energy related loan portfolios around. So, although (in theory) onshore natural gas in Tanzania should be shielded from the imploding oil prices, the financial risk profile of AEX is not.

WRL on the other hand has full control over their assets (nothing pledged to anyone), has signed the GSA and should see massive cash flow from their Tanzanian assets over the next few years. And they have the option to build a significant cash position should they decide to reduce the exploration risk in Mozambique.

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