Quite a turbulent phase the last few days.Some great contributions on this board. My gut feeling is IMHO , this week will see the bottom price for LLOY SP thereafter we are going to see a steady but slow upside but not too high until closer to the Final results next year. DYHO GOOD LUCK ALL
Hi Baz- doing a bit more bleating than bashing today I see lol ;) ..Here's my take...
Main afternoon fall in Lloyds started around 1.15pm at the same time ADP employment job were released. The general thinking is that banks were hit more than most by these strong employment figures (215K versus expected 170k). This worries investors in the short term, as it may give clues about non farm payroll figures to be released Friday. NFP figures are seen to be a deciding factor in Fed decisions on tapering. In short people are nervous as the US economy appears to get stronger.
Can't be 100% sure of course - but that's a more likely cause than me feeling confident in Lloyds getting past 80p, given I have been trading and investing long this time round since it was in the 50's. Also more likely than Libor scandals I would have thought which seems to have bypassed Lloyds(touch wood), and which were announced in the morning for other banks and has been known about for weeks. Yes, just possibly Lloyds could get dragged in but given USB got off just for giving evidence I doubt it. If those banks got hit somehow by claims related to false Libor levels well that could open a container load full of worms for them - let alone a can full..... but how could that be allowed to happen? - what could be proved / quantified etc.? Bet your bippy ambulancechasers.com are puzzling over it though. I don't expect more repercussion for them - the example's been made with "biggest" fine ever .
Lloyds also got removed from mention in the BIS Tomlinson report - so RBS is the only target of that. Increasingly (MO only though), the BIS resident entrepreneur looks increasingly like a disgruntled RBS customer and could miss making a mark (only my opinion based on what I read again of course). The official comments have extended to "Those are very serious allegations".
If I have a concern about Lloyd's its that it takes a fairly big step back or starts struggling due to the markets as a whole.,. as tapering is finally firmly announced and then implemented, and/or the wider economies suffer for this or that reason. A housing market collapse would uniquely damage Lloyds, but the state's not going to let that happen IMO. The more likely downside scenarios would give us delay, I would say, rather than long term downside. If I thought this was a big threat I'd drop my shares as I am mildly in profit, albeit in what I hoped was a long term investment. I don't think that's so-so I am still in, but equally well aware I could be wrong.
Will good Lloyds stability, growth and news overcome wider economic issues particularly tapering ? I thinks so .. especially because the wider issues are due mainly paradoxically to growth.
If anyone isn't confident of the continuing story - getting out might be a good idea as there will be ups and downs, and risk of loss - I don't think there are many better bets around tho... Hopefully the news holds up - but we wi
Why are all we 'Longs' hoping for a Santa Rally or indeed any short term increase in SP prior to Boy Georges release of the remainder, or a portion of the remainder of HMG's shares.
In believing that the price of these will achieve £1.50 to £2.00 in the next two to three years based on projected fundamentals, surely we should be hoping for any General FTSE, Banking Sector, or Lloyds specific issues/corrections to occur before HMG's release so as to lower the SP which will obviously influence or indeed dictate his proposed floatation price.
A lower current SP will enable us to top up more efficiently prior to floatation, and if the floatation price is 75 p as opposed to a larger figure then if they replicate the seemingly successful RMG guaranteed dividend fund then the annual return would appear more attractive.
This scenario would encourage more potential private investors to participate whilst simultaneously encouraging the government to avail a far larger number of shares than perhaps originally planned in that they would try and fill the hole in anticipated receipts resultant from a lesser SP with an increase in volume buoyed by the greater increase in private investor interest - after all he needs a set level of receipts to fund his planned sweeteners prior to the next election
Indeed if RMG was ten times oversubscribed then that would equate to more than sufficient available interest/monies to cover the entire amount of HMG's interest in Lloyds.
Furthermore a 75p price would not attract criticism in selling to his mates at a reduced price which would occur if sold at a higher price despite the obvious benefit, with the criticism received 2/3 years hence of selling them at half price essentially coming in mid term of the next parliament which will just be taken on the chin and forgotten about, prior to the then impending sell off of RBS.
With HMG out of the way, and suitably recompensed with the projected fundamentals and accompanying Dividend then 'Chocks Away!'
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