After playing the biggest game of chicken for over a year now, it seems Saudi Arabia may soon go broke after blowing $100bn in a year from their $750bn reserves to squeeze shale producers out of the market by keeping oil prices low. (cash reserves as of July 2015 - $668.8bn)
They are now admitting that betting the whole farm on this idea hasn't really worked as USA shale producers can produce cheaper than first thought and get oil to market much sooner. This has caused Saudi Arabia to cut spending and borrow money, yes you heard me right, the Saudis are borrowing money as they are hemorrhaging riyals faster than they can pump oil. Their break even price for oil is around $104. So good luck to them. Oh did I forget to mention they have an expensive war to fund lol.
Well this is all good for BLVN who are cash rich and have millions of oil to flood the market when Saudi Arabia have a Charity Concert around 2018.
My ability to guess must be incredible. Have not been far away with one single "guess" in the last 18 months. Anyway....I will guess that the results of the current 2 drills will have little or no affect in raising the share price significantly and that after any such news of drill results the share price will drop. There.......but it is only a guess after all.
Last drill took around 54 days. This drill may be slightly quicker as the crew will have learned something about the geology. I am guessing Monday 12 October for the next RNS though and maybe another 4 weeks for wireline logs to be evaluated. "Robust 3way dip closure" is strong language and suggests great confidence hydrocarbons have been spotted by 2/3d. It suggests from closure that this is a completely separate hydrocarbon field as it implies the gas/oil cannot migrate elsewhere. I think we are in for good news followed by announcing a GSA with VOG or ENEO. Merger or takeover will do. Multiples of where we are now for the patient. GLA.
I think its part of the trend- the share has only gone one way for the last couple of years, and with oil down and the general market conditions.
However I think a great time to buy as money becomes available Great cash position by BLVN Director commitments at 23p and 30p buying in. great prospect of 4 drills in the next 6 months patience a great value long term play with minimum down risk from this level
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