back of the envelope calculation Howth. even an optimist like myself would not expect 1.6 billion profit next year. around the 1billion would be acceptable and very achievable. that would leave 200mil to be distributed which would be realistic even after redeeming the 2009 pref shares. dividend of around .006c. The governments 14% share holding would amount to a €27 million pay day on the eve of a general election. Nice.
As a shareholder i would have expected the bank to pay a dividend in 2017 based on 2016 profits and would have been happy with that. However, if management are comfortable with an earlier but smaller payout thats fine with me.
I see 35 cent at best. With a fall back to 31. Maybe less. Look im dissapointed as much as everyone. But make no mistake it'll be pump dump and run for those involved. This time next year we'll still be looking at 31c..... only when the bank reinstates a dividend will we see really normal forward movement. Untill then its pump and dumb. Hey the bank has turned, and for those holding, like me, its keeping holding if you can. Cause by 2020 a decent reward is coming. A solid 50 -60 cent. Thats it.
A profit of 1.6 for 2015 woukdnt be a high surprise. Bring on that 1 cent dividend... I'm beginning to think along similar lines and maybe sell some shares over 36. It has been a fairly steep climb and I'm sure there are many short term investors dying to collect their profits. Buy back in between 30 and 32. Will see
Nice analysis John Mc. I'm still hoping for €1b profit and share price of 39c by Friday.
Nice to read Deutsche Bank's prediction of dividends 20% of 2015 profits payable in 2016 etc. (hopefully with the preference shares sorted.)This should attract more positive action on the share price.
With 32B shares in existence, it would take €320m in distributable profits to pay a 1c dividend per share. That would mean that profits would need to be €1.6 b to pay a 1c dividend in 2016 based on 20% of profits.
My breakeven is .28c and will be very tempted to take some profit when they reach .39c and take a chance to get back in again later.
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