Have been trying to get more of a handle on what we're potentially looking at by doing a quick comparison with other Oil companies. Roxi (RXP) are an interesting example as, from what I can gather, they are currently valued on net proven reserves of around 12 million Colins ('Colin' being cockney rhyming slang for barrel. Colin Farrell = barrel). They have a mcap of around 160 million GBP after they had a good day yesterday.
With the Drillippines, RMP is targeting just under 15 million Colins - which if it came good would (by approximating to RXP) put us somewhere near 200 million GBP for the mcap. This would translate to a sp of around 55p.
Given a 30% cos (by averaging the two estimates from Otto and RMP) suggests that 16.5p at spud would not be unreasonable. However - the problem with this calc. is that the RXP reserves are probably a lot cheaper to get out of the ground (as they are land based). Not sure what factor to apply here to correct for that but a handwavey estimate (i.e. not a very reliable estimate) would be about 25%. It leaves us looking at around 40p for a strike and 13p for spud which is in line with other estimates.
I'll stop making slack-jawed predictions about expected falls in price - another healthy rise is more than welcome. And yes - the ASX will be playing catch-up this morning. Any positive news right now would send this sky high. Feels like the anticipation of Marlin fishing - all the slack line has been taken up, you've strapped yourself in and now you're just about to engage the reel. When you feel the first tug you know the ride is about to start - and we could be on to a monster.
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