I doubt that OPEC will relent. As bad as the OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia, are hurting, to give up at this point would make all the previous suffering pointless. Saudi Arabia is really the linchpin in OPEC. No member can resist the will of the Saudis because they control such huge and flexible oil flows.
I have posited a speculative, but nevertheless plausible reason for why Saudi Arabia may not give up on its strategy any time soon: The kingdom may be at or near its all-time maximum rate of production, a rate it may only be able to maintain for the next decade or so. Naturally, the Saudis want to maximize their revenues during this period of peak production. They can't do that if U.S. oil companies keep overproducing.
the Saudis can neutralize those companies, by bankrupting them or forcing widespread lease sales, this will allow major international oil companies to buy up much of these distressed assets. The majors will develop these properties more slowly than the independents did because 1) the majors do not have to worry about their ability to meet debt payments and 2) the majors do not want to crater the price of oil which would only undermine the value of their newly acquired leases.
It is hard to imagine that the Saudis launched their low-price strategy on a wing and a prayer without thinking through how long it would take to force other producers to stop overproducing. But, investors keep hoping that the Saudis don't really know what they are doing. So far the Saudis appear to have the upper hand, and I'm guessing that those buying newly issued oil company shares these days are miscalculating once again. After all, the funding derived from these share offerings will only serve to encourage continued overproduction by making it possible for producers to hang on that much longer in hopes of an upturn.
Saudi would have never have cut a deal with India, for under ground storage, if they had any intentions of exercising a cut in production. The freeze had also been implemented only after a rise in output which is a joke in itself. The oil production war will continue until such time the cuts happen naturally, when smaller outfits bankrupt or call it a day before they are wiped out....
Yes C1977 I think you are correct I think most people could see that happening if they are being honest. No point in trying to pretend. This dramatic fall in this companies SP is quite something as it had been falling even when the oil was at twice, three time this low level..
Oh know he has got a vendetta and too much time on his hands.
Some people keep flooding the market with low quality oil. So much so that it gets into the resevoirs of the medium or high quality reserves... how ever much they try to stop this contamination the low quality oil constantly returns.
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