Oil price Crude oil rallied yesterday as Canadian outages, higher than first expected at around 1.5m b/d kept supplies short and despite a strong dollar pushed prices up. This is unlikely to last for long as a number of operations are already preparing to restart having closed only for the effects of smoke. Also pushing prices down is the war of words between the KSA and Iran, the Aramco CEO has said that they will continue to increase production (11m b/d appears to be the target) whilst the NIOC has announced a $1.60 discount on June prices to encourage customers. There is a lot of smoke and mirrors here, Iran may be getting up to its short term capacity and of course during the summer months the Saudis may well increase production but not exports due to domestic demand. After the close, the API stats showed a build of 3.45m barrels and 1.5m at Cushing which wasn't expected and crude has fallen around 60 cents this morning. The STEO from the EIA is out this morning and only the headlines are available as I write, however it does look to be a bit more bullish with particular reference to all these short term outages which they calculate as being as much as 2.9m b/d in April. They see global demand numbers growing, albeit slowly and the draw on Opec starts to become more meaningful by the third quarter…
Thanks rob, it is not so much patience as an acceptance that, given the current low POO (which will recover) and our waterflood program in place (due to come into effect in H2) things will take some time to get back to where we need to be. I look at the overall picture and remember that less than a year ago it looked like we might not have a company. The current management have, with some prudent decisions, shown us that Range has a successful future ahead and is probably in better shape than many small oilers right now.
I know Saudi are looking to emulate the UAE by being less dependent on oil revenue but they do not have the tourism nor the freight trade that the UAE have. There is a reason the US lifted sanctions on Iran and it does not bode well for Saudi.
Firstly there was no "massive sell off" only around 5 million shares were traded and many of those trades were wrongly shown as sells instead of buys. The Saudi oil minister has been removed because his strategy was not working and has damaged Saudi Arabia in the process. Let's see what happens under the new minister who will in effect control OPEC.
Today our favourite underperforming share has a massive sell off and the price goes up. No material new news unless we didn't like the Saudi oil Minister. Ho hum, more of the same please as I have a long way to go to break even!
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