got to say i like your figures esp the fact that you've taken low averages and low expectations. That post alone has settled some of the nerves ive had re missing or unexplained info. Although i have kept any negativity to myself ;-) Can you ensure you copy and paste that post every hour on the hour for the forseeable , preferably twinned with Speculators recent unearthings. Thanks !!! makes great reading.
I am hopping for the 2014 wells which there are 8 off to average out at 100 bopd, I don't think this is a big ask as we had numerous 300 to 400 bopd wells so the % decline to average out at 100 bopd per well is over 60%. not forgetting the 1050 one off well. So 8 X 100 = 800. I also ecxpect the legacy wells to be doing circa 350 as this works out at under 5 bopd each which brings us to 1150 bopd and then Spain which could be 100 to 150 so just take 120 and we are at 1270 bopd Lacos does 25 bopd but that is not our share and I have forgotten the % that we own as its so negligible that I don't retain it so just say 10 bopd, that's us at 1280 bopd. Then the reperforations that I wouls assume are not that great but surely 20 bopd each is not to much of an ask and we know that there are 12 of them so that's 240 bopd which brings us to 1310 bopd. That is the figure that I think we should be at without pad 4 and pad 5 and the other well on pad 3 and possibly this phantom side track well. Look at how good the initial flow rates were in 2014 and go for a lowish initial flow rate from the 2015 drills and take 150 bopd average which we know is pretty low but all the same lets work on that . So that's 8 new wells doing 150 bopd each which is 1200 bopd . Add that to the others and we are at 2510 and then this phantom well which may or may not be , but I think it is. But lets leave it out. So we have to pay BNP something like 700 bopd at a high estimate and we produce something like 2510 at a low estimate not forgetting the new ongoing GS wells soon to be drilled which at low estimates will do 60 bopd each and it honestly begs the question as why we are at this SP and as Emily rightfully said , almost on a par with UKOG that produce diddly squat. I know none of these figures have shone through as the infrastructure is not in place . It will be given time . UKOG have no infrastructure and no oil flows , no BOPD and still they have circa same MC. I bought another 200,000 shares today as this is just unbelievable at this SP.
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