Nobody is talking to me today. Looks like I was right though, a very large buy (volume 677k, cash 77k) showed up around 14:20 that is timed earlier in the day at 11:23. I'm fairly pleased with my powers of observation and deduction :)
Still gets my vote GK or I would have exited by now, or certainly pre-PA decision.
As you say, the comparatively reduced Mcap goes some way beyond the level of dilution we've suffered, whilst NPV remains the same or has improved, delays aside. Thus (unforgiving) sentiment is driving the 'discount'.
I'd also always speculated (in ignorance I admit) that delivery of the various formal project milestones would open a series of buying floodgates. The more the project income stream is de-risked, the more scope II's with different fund risk profiles have to look at it, and as the SP escalates share so perhaps the co graduates from AIM, ticking another box for more buyers.
Obviously subject to fund objectives and strategies (which differ) but would be good to know what milestones might trigger what sort of mainstream II interest.
One last thought. Could it be that the MM are keeping the share price high to encourage some sells so that they can fulfil a big buy? I've seen them keep it low before. I'm happy to be enlightened if anyone knows.
An annual "Stocks to Double" competition appears on ADVFN a week or so before each new year. Closing for entries with this one was end of day 1/1/15.
So I waited to see if anyone would offer up this share. Zip. So I thought I better had.
Just goes to show how unforgiven and now scorned this co is by PIs. Are they right to or will they miss out on something big time? No certainty on that of course.
Whatever, it could be part of the explanation as to why this had an Mcap of some £380m at this stage before the last expected determination and now has an Mcap at barely half that. But the project valuation hasn't halved.
Thing is IF this does get PP and so also finance (that also an "if") and then construction starts, will that 'grumpiness' about this still hold it back? Depends who buys. PIs? Probably nowhere near as much as the big boys will. They will pile in while PIs are getting over their sulk (or bailing). Why? The big boys will suddenly see a mine being built and a much higher probability of very significant future earnings - or a 'killer' T/O likely.
Mind, that butters no parsnips today. Just need a decision, until then no one wants to know. Vol so far today/ A miserly £20k's worth.
@nuts You could try day trading this share by waiting for small drops and small rises but you'll struggle. The volumes aren't there at the moment and the spread is too wide. There's a chance this share will go below 10 for a bit, and there's probably an equal chance it will rise above 12.
Unfortunately, we seem destined to have to put up with your comments at every small turn in the share. Nobody but you cares about the micro, the rest of us are in it for the macro.
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