MOL have just completed the following purchase of some N/S assets:
"Dec 22 14 MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc. hereby informs the capital market participants that it has successfully closed the previously announced deal with Premier Oil UK Limited regarding acquisition of Premier's interest in 6 licences located in the UK Central North Sea area. The portfolio includes non-operated equity stakes in Scott, 21.84% unitised Working Interest, Rochelle (15% unitised WI) and Telford (1.59% unitised WI) producing fields, as well as participating interest in exploration licences including the Rochelle Upper Jurassic deep prospect. The acquisition is estimated to increase MOL's 2P reserves by 14 MMboe, while the year-to-date 2014 total WI saleable production of above-mentioned assets has averaged 3.7 mboepd. Prospective resources (7 MMboe, unrisked) provide an additional upside potential."
They paid $130 million (c.$9.28 per barrel) for those producing 14 million barrels in a very mature field. We need c.$3 per barrel to enable us to become a producer.
If we were to sell for the same price as Premier did to MOL for example but deducted the $3 per bbl ie. sold up for $6.28 as we stand today (won't happen imo, but just playing devils advocate) we would achieve c.£2.00 per share.
This is in my opinion the rock bottom we would achieve for Bentley given our 1P status.
It also gives no consideration to our 2C oil, tax breaks, back-costs etc......£2.00 a share is rock bottom, but probably a starting point for any negotiations of a takeover imo.
How else do you determine the costs of an oil-field to a per bbl basis? This is how the industry marks out an oil-field and its viability, but as per usual you wish to try and put your own take on it and as per usual you are proven that you in fact are once again wrong. (ie please show examples of how oilfields are costed in any other way than how our RAR presented)..........
once we have the fdp etc , the share will rise to around £1.20 to £1.50. Seeing as how we won't be pumping oil till 2018 , the oil price will be closer to $80 to $100 when we start pumping . So the share price is likely to rise back to £4 plus , as we get closer to the pumping date and things progress . This rise of course will be helped quicker as the oil price recovers . Pretty obvious really
Has to be something also for the 27th Round awards. Once the Bentley FDP is in and approved, from the funds released by that event, via jv partners in particular, hopefully XER can fire up one of those currently cheap semis available for a 2015 summer campaign to test and perchance add further to reserves thereby.
How much is each of our shares worth? Here is my evaluation on a 2P basis:
In the ground: 257 MM barrels (RAR report)
Sort of in the ground: 48 MM barrels (I find it very hard to believe the 2C stuff remains in the ground after 35 years of production including EOR)
BOE in the gas caps: 49.4 MM barrels (you need to do some high school math to figure this one out from the RAR report)
So, each share is worth (257+48+49.4)/ 357.9 = 0.99 BOE per share
Now, crude oil reserves sell for more than $ 10 per barrel. $ 15 is a reasonable average. The cost of finding new reserves is more than $ 20. The Ithaca - Valiant Petroleum merger priced 2P barrels of reserves at $ 16.
Now you need to do a little more high school math to figure out how much your shares are worth.
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