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Xcite Energy Share Chat (XEL)



Share Price: 68.25Bid: 68.00Ask: 69.00Change: -1.25 (-1.80%)Faller - Xcite Energy
Spread: 1.00Spread as %: 1.47%Open: 68.00High: 71.00Low: 68.25Yesterday’s Close: 69.50



Share Discussion for Xcite Energy (XEL)


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Rowman_Oohmwrels
Posts: 89
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
View Thread (5)
RE: The Lockie
18 Jun '14
CHAPPI, assuming this was magically developed and produced for 35 years, TRACS estimated operational expense at $30 per barrel. What would happen to that figure if the actual oil lifted turned out to be only 150 million barrels ? The variables are so extreme it is impossible judge. NPV10 is not fair value, it doesn't even consider interest expense. It doesn't include salaries. You need to take a step back and review your calculations. You don't just divide the market cap by the 2P estimates, you add the market cap, debt and estimated development expense, then divide by the 2P estimates. That's much more than $1.24 per barrel.
 
MajorEvent
Posts: 447
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
View Thread (5)
RE: The Lockie
18 Jun '14
My guess is once they apply for the FDP the price will go big time over 200p. Still well below nav.

But as news comes through the share price will improve, by the time XEL are ready to submit FDP we may already know that financing is sorted.

Didn't Rupert once say we would be 1:1 with nav once we have FDP, that's over 400p per share.
CHAPPI
Posts: 5,778
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
View Thread (5)
The Lockie
18 Jun '14
All I would like to comment on regarding the SP on FDP approval is that at this moment our 2P oil is being valued at c.$1.24 by the market.

Tracs suggest a NPV10 of $8.8 per 2P barrel, average producers trade at around an EV of c.$14 per 2P barrel if my memory serves me correct .

So we have:

Xcite currently: $1.24 per barrel (65p SP)

Tracs suggest a value: $8.8 per barrel (c.£4.55 SP)

Average N/S producers EV: $14 per barrel (c.£7.80 SP)

So somewhere between our current SP and TRACS value to start with on FDP, then as we creep nearer to production somewhere between TRACS value and average N/S producers........

I will leave you to make any guesses as to what the in-between prices may be! (plus we have that IP, but lets forget about any value for that)

ATB
katnick108
Posts: 2,199
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
Hi
18 Jun '14
Guys, Inanaco is my guardian angel,

He,s trying to protect me from myself, that why he,s just posted the info about bonds.

Anyway i suppose could do a little plug for SCLP .

And Inanaco is the formidable force on the board.

Possibly say he,s the equivalent of Chappi for Scancell.......

I agree about XEL, has to play out and it will take time.
I do not think either Xel /Stat and the government wish to loose this potential money spinner,which is along time coming...... and for me a few bruises along the way.
Thanks guys,
Have a good day
boss007
Posts: 580
Observation
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:65.00
View Thread (2)
RE: kat
18 Jun '14
Hi Chappi.....Hope you are ok....Agree 100% with your thoughts...long term this is a no brainer.........just got to be patient......we all know this is not easy.....I am here for £23,000 at £1 a share, and feel confident, as the oil will come out, safe place, all the infrastructure.....

worry more about GKP......risky place......but lot's of oil

I will keep topping up here at these prices........Xcite will not sell this cheap, we all know that.....they have a plan......EITHER PAY THE GOING RATE FOR TO OR BYE......

I think our data said more than we could say to Staloi......HUGE SAVINGS!!!!!!.......
CHAPPI
Posts: 5,778
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
Every deal will be based
18 Jun '14
on "subject to FDP approval".

Just to highlight why that would be, lets talk daft for a moment (not hard for me!).....

Acme says to us right we will give you 10 trillion dollars for Bentley now clear off to the golf course, don't worry about FDP approval we will get it no problem, we are loaded, you have proved the oil flows blah blah blah that will do us.....

So Acme submit a FDP but get refused, oh dear!

Why did the DECC do that?

Because the DECC found out below our oil are 50 trillion trillion gold nuggets and we can't extract the oil in case they disappear......on no!

The FDP approval is everything, then we have a REAL asset at our disposal to sell/ produce etc etc....
inanaco
Posts: 23,053
Premium Chat Member
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
kat for information
18 Jun '14
Bonds and stocks are both securities, but the major difference between the two is that (capital) stockholders have an equity stake in the company (i.e. they are investors), whereas bondholders have a creditor stake in the company (i.e. they are lenders). Being a creditor, bondholders have absolute priority and will be repaid before stockholders (who are owners) in the event of bankruptcy.[3] Another difference is that bonds usually have a defined term, or maturity, after which the bond is redeemed, whereas stocks are typically outstanding indefinitely. An exception is an irredeemable bond, such as Consols, which is a perpetuity, i.e. a bond with no maturity.
CHAPPI
Posts: 5,778
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
View Thread (2)
kat
18 Jun '14
We are fully loaded with an amount of shares that sits within my "could still manage if it all went belly up" scenario (as all AIM shares should be ranked imo)...........

All I will say is we don't have any other AIM shares at present, it's all in here!

Risky I know, and a financial advisor would want to slap my legs!

The biggest thing is I am in no rush and that's probably key imo..
katnick108
Posts: 2,199
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:65.00
Chappi
18 Jun '14
You,ve always been uber confident with Xel.
Also you,ve done much research,
Are you still buying in?
CHAPPI
Posts: 5,778
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:64.75
oops sorry!
18 Jun '14
Missed a bit off this post:

onjo, I did say "as such", of course there is still a value even now but nothing like the NPV10 numbers TRACS issued and that's the disconnect between the asset and the SP people >>>>tend to refer to<<<.

And that's what we are talking about NPV10 disconnect to SP, not a TO price!



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