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Thomas Cook Share Chat (TCG)



Share Price: 119.00Bid: 118.70Ask: 118.90Change: -0.50 (-0.42%)Faller - Thomas Cook
Spread: 0.20Spread as %: 0.17%Open: 120.10High: 120.00Low: 117.20Yesterday’s Close: 119.50


Share Discussion for Thomas Cook (TCG)


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Puffy
Posts: 1,117
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:152.40
View Thread (6)
Outlook
20 May '14
Very strong support at 145, it was slammed down to that level a few times. It wants to go higher but THEY won't allow it. Easy 10% to make here too.

Oversold on RSI, Williams %R, MACD divergence like the Grand Canyon. I believe 145 was bottom, but not to say we won't see 136.9, airline and leisure are not in demand, TCG can't hold on to gains, despite solid fundamentals.

Clawing back to 159, 178 and 183 will be painful, those MAs are decreasing by the hour.

MCX also nearing oversold conditions at 15434. I had my eyes on 15131 as support (Dec 4/5 low), but this might be it.

Russell 2000 seems to be trying to bounce from its recent 10% correction so hopefully see some spillover effect.

My view, trade sideways, high 140s mid 150s from now until early June when ECB decides on what measures to take to kick start Eurozone growth.

Probably be a dead cat bounce and we'll see vols pick back up towards end of July.

TCG is going on an investor roadshow to discuss H1 results, hopefully we'll see some positive notes come out from the larger investment houses.

IF 31 July trading update confirms that the UK revenue and booking slump was a fluke/one off due to reducing Egypt capacity and building out the offering/kill the all-eggs-in-one-basket, I believe we'll be back in the low 170s. That is only ~15% from current levels which we've seen it claw back in days. But sentiment is bad now. For a correction of this size we should be back in the mid 160s if anyone wanted to go long.

But, if you are a value investor these are fantastic levels to get in at. Fundamentally not much has changed other than FY14 -3% rev growth. FY15-18 is what you want to focus on. Buy and stash away.
 
Puffy
Posts: 1,117
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:152.40
View Thread (2)
RE: TCG
20 May '14
Director deals are a PR tactic when a company takes a slamming for little reason. Restores some confidence.

Back to chart. Thanks for reminding me legobrickgirl :)
legobrickgirl
Posts: 3,497
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:151.20
View Thread (2)
TCG
19 May '14
Director deals are not that big tbh.
My advice, and it's just advice is to hold, and top up when the SP has settled down and confirmed that the drop has stopped.

http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=10596542512014513946.png

GLA
MrBobs
Posts: 2,136
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:151.20
View Thread (3)
RE: director deal
19 May '14
Mmmm" should have read " One woman show" , oooops! :-)
MrBobs
Posts: 2,136
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:151.20
View Thread (3)
RE: director deal
19 May '14
Nice to hear from you mate, been a while, glad to see you are still with the business, whilst the "markets" seem to love the cost cutting/job shedding it always makes me feel slightly uncomfortable, i prefer to see the sp grow on good news and the expansion of the business, likewise i shake my head with despair, when i read comments on these boards , where there seems to be pleasure when things are not going so well for a business and are slightly challenging for whatever reason, yea , as investors, we may shed a tear for our bad fortune but it should be remembered, it is some peoples whole livelihood, career and family that are also effected by all this .

World events we can't control and will always be the risk here, but HG is doing ok , she might need to consider this is not a woman show and start bringing her senior Team up to her polish and per-nazz ! though .

Anyway , while it might look a bit painful on paper at the moment, nothing to get too excited about , smiley faces to come i am sure, cavok :-)
airbus330
Posts: 66
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:151.20
View Thread (3)
director deal
19 May '14
I think it is very interesting that HG has bought again when the SP is depressed and if I had spare cash I would be inclined to follow her. Reason being is that very soon she has to prove that she is more than just a cost cutter and show that TCG can return a profit. At that point SP booms and I suspect shortly after that she will be off to challenges new. Speaking as someone experiencing her cuts, it is still painful, but I can see what they are trying to do and it seems to be working, slowly but surely. There is signs of innovative thinking and expansion, again tentatively, but in sensible areas. Always low business risk. I think this SP will go over 200p next year, unless world events intervene.
JulyNoted
Posts: 78
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:150.90
View Thread (4)
RE: Ms. BS Green?
19 May '14
The Cat
I'm a little disappointed by you suggestion that Rolf Harris could take over TCGs PR. I was thinking Max Clifford?

fitchi
I probably didn't put that too well. I've bought and sold TCG a number of times and done quite well on each occasion. I was always of the opinion that it couldn't last, hence my comments on the management's strategy to date. Good short term. Perhaps not so good long term.
Assuming that we want to invest, the money has to go somewhere and perhaps TCG is no longer the best place.
I've done ok out of this share but I've always been cautious about it. Ms Green has been the darling of The City for a while now but what goes up must come down. Anyway, as I said, I'm an amateur so these are just my thoughts.

Analysts were forecasting £2.50 for this share for quite a while. What happened to that? (I wasn't a believer).

Am I right in thinking that the share price dropped significantly on the 14th - the before HG issued her statement?

Anyway. I'm really not frustrated at all. A little disappointed perhaps but, hey, if I can't take a joke I shouldn't buy shares eh...

In truth, I'll be hanging onto my shares and tend to believe they'll get back to a reasonable level (again, only my amateur opinion).

Thanks for your feedback.

July.
Farruggia1967
Posts: 308
Observation
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:149.90
View Thread (2)
RE: panic again
19 May '14
Not me!!

Yes the down turn in SP has left me with a bitter taste in my mouth and i wasn't expecting it, but as things stand i,m currently shaking my granny upside down to see if i can lay my hands on more funds without cashing in any of my other holdings.

like many on here i was looking to off load a few thousand at £1.90 - £2 mark which if i'm honest was hoping for last week, but as Ester say's "Thats Life!!

But having been here since the dark days of 12p & 14p so still sitting on a large pot of profit, but a few K short from last wednesday, was hoping for a new car this week, will now put that idea on hold for a few weeks i think!!!!

Best of luck to all as always
DestituteBroker
Posts: 306
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:150.20
Re panic again
19 May '14
It’s standard practice, take the sp down. Divide your loss by 5 & times it by 100 & top up by that amount. Then if it rises by 5% over the next few days you’ve got your loss back + hopefully some profit too.
statusquo
Posts: 404
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:148.50
View Thread (2)
panic again
19 May '14
Looks like the mm's want to kill off TCG once and for all. Now down to 148 with little sign of any real upturn. They did the same at 3.00pm last Friday. They see it as an easy target and are out to make the most of it and putting further panic onto the pi's



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