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Thomas Cook Share Chat (TCG)



Share Price: 119.60Bid: 119.50Ask: 119.60Change: 0.40 (+0.34%)Riser - Thomas Cook
Spread: 0.10Spread as %: 0.08%Open: 119.20High: 121.00Low: 116.70Yesterday’s Close: 119.20


Share Discussion for Thomas Cook (TCG)


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casual47
Posts: 704
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:122.00
View Thread (7)
RE: A guess
29 Jul '14
Buzz -- Does one bad summer make a bad CEO? Especially as most of that will be through unavoidable industry-wide factors? And also....how much of that will be factored in already / hedged into the current SP?

JulyN -- I think the market is insane and baffling at the moment, what with FTSE stocks displaying behaviour more to be expected of AIM shares and just about everyone trading shares nowadays rather than holding them. And even TESCO is now looking like a giant with clay feet (though I'm keen to get in there soonish). So......it's probably not you :)

TCG is currently the only "boring" blue chip share in my portfolio. I'm mainly dabbling in AIM miners so am used to rather rambunctious share price movements. TCG was originally a punt back when it was on its knees but as I'm not getting any younger it is now the first "sensible" share with hopefully more to follow as I balance my SIPP towards the not quite so stupidly risky (though the stupidly risky shares have more than paid off so far).
 
JulyNoted
Posts: 78
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:121.70
View Thread (8)
RE: Two questions
29 Jul '14
At last. A well thought out reply.

I do understand the need for a company to have an intrinsic value
then we need a management we have confidence in
and then a little understanding / gut feeling of market sentiment.

A sound understanding of the company's historic highs and lows (Not just financial) would be good too
but TCG is a bit of a wild card in that respect.

I get a bit fed up reading a lot of positive (wishful? Irrational?) thinking on this forum.
Whilst I fully appreciate that everyone is entitled to their views
it's very rare for anyone to back up their statements, thoughts or projections.

Yours was very informative, so thank you.

July
Puffy
Posts: 1,133
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:121.70
View Thread (7)
RE: A guess
29 Jul '14
Why is it that people here expect the BoD and CEO to speak every week? They have better things to do, like running the company and focus on delivery.
JulyNoted
Posts: 78
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.90
View Thread (7)
RE: A guess
29 Jul '14
Well,

first of all, that piece was dated 18th May and we haven't heard much from Ms Green since then.
Who knows what "The City" are thinking over a three month period.
They can change their minds in an instant if they lose confidence. Isn't that their job?

If you take everything Harriet say at face vale it does sound good
(If a little New Age, tree hugging and certainly self aggrandising.)
but, whilst I'm not saying she can't do it, I'm yet to be convinced.
Let's wait till we see some good figures from TCG.
I'll be more impressed if MS. Green can make this share a good LONG TERM investment.

I hope your optimism is rewarded as I'm still invested too, although I regularly question my sanity.
Buzzlightyear123
Posts: 508
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.70
View Thread (7)
RE: A guess
29 Jul '14
If performance over the summer is poor she may have some questions to answer over her own performance e.g the re-brand, marketing execution. Hot summer in the UK, poor sentiment amongst airlines / travel may point to it being a poor summer for TCG, we shall see.
casual47
Posts: 704
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.60
View Thread (7)
RE: A guess
29 Jul '14
Why would she need to resign / be pushed? Looks to me she has delivered on everything so far.

Yes, going from 180p+ to 120p now is a big drop. But nobody was complaining when it went supersonic the other way -- perhaps 180p was too fast too soon?

Seeing as the SP was 11pence not so long ago not sure there is that much to complain about.

The analysts/brokers certainly don't seem to think so seeing they still give ratings much higher than the current SP.

The Telegraph article below is only a little over two months old....can't find anything to disagree with re. how it describes HG.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/10839758/Thomas-Cook-boss-Harriet-Green-hides-an-iron-fist-inside-her-kid-glove.html

As for director buys....Just see what director buys there were at Tui Travel this year. I don't see anyone casting suspicions about them for the lack of more director buys / bigger amounts.
Buzzlightyear123
Posts: 508
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.80
View Thread (7)
A guess
29 Jul '14
This mini spike is because HG will stand down and the market likes it. The step down will come with a profit warning. OR as already posted, results have been seen and they are OK (no worse than 120p anyway).
Either way, interesting
Puffy
Posts: 1,133
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.10
View Thread (8)
RE: Two questions
29 Jul '14
You have fundamentals if you don't subscribe to charts. I've said since Apr/May this will hit 111p and probably lower as that's what my chart was telling me and technical analysis is good to time entry/exit.

Warren B. doesn't use charts. He looks at fundamentals. Same for me, but I use charts to time my entry/exit.

This is cheap value stock based on current 120p SP. Loads of intrinsic value.

P/E
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
10.9 7.5 6.0 5.2

At 2013 results it was trading at P/E 35.14. Over cooked (no pun intended).

Getting to an industry P/E of ~17, below average (my conservative estimate) we'll have:

Year: 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
SP: 150.00 220.00 260.00 300.00
P/E: 13.64 13.75 13.00 13.04

Ultimately this will hit 338p, all time high, when revenue, income and divis are back to pre 2012 levels.

This of course means there are no nasty surprises to top line growth and too much missing consensus forecasts.

There will be ups and down, long term this is a winner.

This is what a summer slump/sell in May and without QE looks like. Get used to it.
volcano
Posts: 2,355
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.10
TCG
29 Jul '14
Jul 31, 2014
Q3 2013/2014 Thomas Cook Group PLC Interim Management Statement Add to calendar
JulyNoted
Posts: 78
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.10
View Thread (8)
RE: Two questions
29 Jul '14
Thanks Puffy,

Am I right in thinking that leaves us only intuition and share price rise / fall
as decision making tools?

(I'm not convinced by graphs and algorithms)



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