Whilst it's admirable various institutions have participated and are participating in tests nobody yet has really spent very much on development, the sorts of sums required to fast track SARs technology is small change to most of the medium let alone large pharma companies. SAR's products have been in the shop window for ten years and all they have to show for it so far is some nominal interest from various research institutes. We had test results back in 2011 which showed dramatic results on tumor reduction, what did Tim do, issue a "no reason RNS" as he has done on other occasions, he should have been shouting it from the rooftops. This companies share price should by now be well into the 5p+ range if they truly had something and not having to issue more shares to Wonga, as they have today, at 0.5p.. Just my thoughts and I'll go away now and continue watching from the sidelines.. gl. andy.
Hi. All good with me. But I disagree. I know what you are saying, but if they were just riding the gravy train, why would the likes of Cancer Reasearch, HMU, Bacit and SRI have put their hands in their pockets and stumped up their cash to further the products discovered by Tim and John?
Whats the saying? Be brave when others are fearful? I think everything is coming together very nicely here. I thought they were cheap at 1.6p (and still do).
It could be a very costly mistake but the decisions the BoD have taken make sense to me. If it was just a normal cash call, why do the swap?
How are you fella, hope all's good. Old Tim's a card mind, another loan from Wonga. !! Having been heavily invested here as you know, I got the feeling a while ago that Ole Timbo was out of his depth and at best very naïve. The debacle over deals being done by end of 2012 was typical of somebody selling the sizzle but not delivering a sausage. Now he finds himself having to stump up a loada wedge to fund their part of ongoing trials as well as having to go back to the well to fund daily operations (Salaries). I have to say if SAR really had something, which we all believed they did, then surely somebody would have put their hand in their pocket some time ago to buy the company and its Intellectual Property. I see other companies in the market making faster strides than SAR and whilst SAR may eventually come up with something to proceed with, it's no good inventing the wheel after somebody already has and put a pneumatic tyre on it. There are RNS's going back ten years ago which widely say the same things as those being published now, it really is time this company (2 people) delivered on something.. Sorry to say it but I've got a feelings these boys have been on the gravy train for ten years and are still on it.. Let's hope I'm wrong. GL. Andy.
As it stood yesterday, SAR has a market capital of £9m, a very promising pipeline of drugs, enough cash to last until early 2015 but no income.
Now imagine that we get good news and the price goes up 10 fold to 5p (hypothetically – just to keep it simple). I would be happy as I have made money. Tim personally would make a lot more money from the shares he holds, but for Sareum, they would not have actually made any money. In this scenario, the position of SAR would be having a market capital of £90m, a more advanced pipeline of drugs, the same cash as they had before (enough to last until early 2015), but still no income. It would be easier to obtain funds with the higher MCap (through a placing, which would have less of a dilution), but the cash position of the company would be identical to that before the rise above and they would not actually have increased their cash at all.
This is until you factor in this swap deal. The amount SAR receives is dependent on the share price. At 0.5p, they would get £16,667 a month, but in the scenario above, after a 10 fold rise, it stands to reason that the payment would be 10 times more, or £166,667 a month.
I could be totally wrong (it wouldn’t be the first time), but to me, the swap deal is Tim taking a gamble that the share price will go up.
I still think that there is a good chance that some kind of grant funding has been agreed (Wellcome Trust or HIRH would be my guess) to cover the cost of CHK1, but this hasn’t been made public because the pre-clinical work is still ongoing (and therefore could fail, meaning the grant wasn’t needed). So until the IND application goes in, it is not guaranteed that this funding will be required and no reason to issue an RNS. But if the IND does go in, this funding will be needed, the grant agreement would come into force, and will be made public.
This swap deal could actually strengthen this argument. If a grant has been agreed in principle, SAR would not be able to buy their own shares, as they would be in position of market sensitive information that would have a profound impact on the SP. But this swap kind of circumvents this rule – they would not actually be buying their own shares, but SAR would still be able to profit from any uplift.
It’s all guesswork and supposition, as ever, but I can understand why Tim did this and, if things go our way, it will prove to be a very smart move.
A holdings RNS. Yorkville have 5.76% of shares. The original SEDA agreement said they didn't have to cross the 3% barrier. I can't see too much risk for them as a result of this swap but plenty of upside for both parties.
Londonwolfie. My experience of Swaps is that they can be used to circumvent some rules. Do you think that in this case they used this deal because SAR cannot transact on their own shares because of what they know (but aren't required to disclose at this point in time) but were offered a structured deal which could make them some serious cash? Just a thought but I'd be interested to hear your (or anyones) thoughts
Charity handout is a definite negative, on the flip, Sareum obviously have a plan for progressing their compounds which this funding will surely help achieve their targets. Certainly not the groundbreaking RNS we were hoping for, but not bad news by any leap.
Ha ha, thanks for the reply, i must confess i am not as knowledgeable as a certain people on here regarding how the market works. But if what you say is correct, and i have no reason to believe otherwise then i feel quite content, appreciated. GLA
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