I am afraid that the elephant in the room which has broken the trust of the market in this company is Tim Mitchells comments relating to a takeover/buyout call it what you will by the end of 2012. Since then this has continued an inexorable decline. It will not make significant headway until or if the trust of the market is restored IMO. I have been a long term holder and my investment has been decimated. I now have to hold but I think that we will not see any return for a very long time.
Not convinced by his priorities to be honest. The market has become sick of these types of updates, maybe originally his strategy was correct however the self inflicted damage that was created in 2012 has seen us wither away. Strategy needs to change to restore market confidence in a profitable licence deal and being in the black and not the red before we will see confidence restored. At first opportunity I would be happy with selling off TYK2, restore confidence and the future updates for our blockbuster of Chk1 and Aurora+FLT3 will have the market reaction we all expect and deserve. Give up 1 compound to prove a point and restore market confidence, as stated they are now looking to work on new compounds and expand the pipeline so giving one up is better for our current position. All IMO
It's all about risk. Progress is good but it will need to remove some of the risk before we see a decent rise. I may have mentioned this a few times lately :)
All of the risks remain. Toxicology, manufacture, leading to paperwork and the trials probably in Q1 both here and China. None of this has been reduced as a result of todays announcements. But if and when each risk is removed we will see a price rise. Smallish steps at first (after any volatility settles down) but getting larger with the removal of each risk.
For me, one of the biggest non-science risks is the cost of Phase 1. SARs payment of £800k is for the pre-clinical work. BACIT have stated they expect to pay the same plus another £1.2m at some point. I can't see any reason to discount the possibility that SAR will need to find a similar amount for CHK1. I hope this isn't by another placing in the latter half of the year but there are other possibilities.
I think Tim is in an awkward (yet good) position whereby he knows the full potential of CHK1 and Aurora FLT3 and really does not want to deal on these before the Phase 1 trial results are known for less than he believes they are worth. If it works out it will see any potential deal command a very significant price. If it doesn't then with hindsight it will be the wrong strategy but that's life. But this 'licence at a later stage' approach costs money which has to come from somewhere.
If not a placing, then he has to deal on something else. Maybe some interest in TYK2/ JAK1 will come out of the conferences and he can licence that programme to cover the costs.
Couldnt agree more. Frustrating that this is taking so long to pull back to a decent level but we are heading in the rght direction, will take time, but we seem to have the right partners to do this with. There has been far to much ramping and building peoples expectaions up. Keep the faith and as always DYOR
1. Which 'competent team' do you wish the current management team to be replaced with? I though SAR only had 2 employees? I may be wrong since my info on that point is a bit dated. They may have increased their staffing by 50%. Therefore 3 employees. 2. Have you done your research? 3. Are you bitter and twisted because you jumped in a few years ago and lost money?
Looks like I am holding for longer but thats the risk of any share.
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