So the chances of something starting phase 1 actually making it to approval is less than 10% according to this and just about everything else I've seen. Most also say oncology have higher failure rates just because of what the drugs have to do. I can't find the link but I also read that in general one third pass phase 1 and this is by far the hardest stage to overcome. Some of the failures will not have had the involvement of such high calibre partners, but some (if not most) will have had the backing of big pharma. Each one will have had expectations of success, else why pay for the trials in the first place? It's just the nature of the game. You kiss enough frogs, you will find a prince. Big pharma start loads of trials. Most fail but sometimes it makes it and when it does, the rewards more than cover the cost of all of the failures. That's why drugs cost so much.
I would agree that anything positive said about either toxicology study could see us back over 1p if it is really good but it will probably drift back a bit when people realise when trials wil start and how long they will take. Just my opinion and nearly always wrong when guessing the price :)
If and when trials start, any good news could see it really take off. And at any point a deal could be announced. But the longer we wait for that, the higher the price. Barring any bad news of course.
hello Bookie, I believe you have to pay circa 1500 dollars for the privilage of this information. This information is only gathered from reports etc. If you didnt want companies to take advantage and speculate then you would not release the information. Supposing SAR have no toxicology problems with CHK1 or any other of the compounds. Would you want the world and all its contents knowing this before patents are granted and finalised. Surely for shareholder interest you would keep schtumm and release the info when close to or into trial period or indeed selling the licence
Good day to you sir. Positive news on toxicology in a February update would in my opinion lift the SP past the 1p per share stage. News of the trial or trials starting would make very little difference as we are informed of trials expected to start around the end of the year. SAR being tight lipped, so in this instance I dont see them releasing much information regards to progress. However, as they expect trials to start at the end of the year then I would assume they are very aware of any toxicology problems encountered at the moment, Until positive news is recieved regarding the effectiveness of the use for CHK1 in the trial periods then I dont see how the SP can really gain ground. We can speculate as much as we like but in reality all we can do is wait. Failure is a possible outcome, but what is the probability of failure? I dont know and would not even want to hazzard a guess. A considerable amount of research, time and effort by world class companies have put CHK1 where it is today, for that reason and in my opinion i see the probability of success more of a likely outcome then failure. Regards
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PCS. A good point on BACIT. They give 1% of their net asset value to charity (50% min to ICR) and can invest another 1% to fund research involving ICR. As at Nov 2013 their NAV was £233m so they are a big contributer to ICR. ICR will have been the ones to put forward the CHK1 programme in their direction IMO
You don't bite the hand that feeds.
BACIT will want to make money as that is what they do, but for their investment in CHK1 it is more an ethical decision to get involved in line with their philosophy (ethical fund managers - how the world has changed! ). They will fully understand that nothing is guaranteed but they are willing to take the risk. And as this was their first investment deal, they must be confident. Not of outright success. If it works, everyone wins. If it doesn't, at least they tried. But confident that the main beneficiary of their charitable strategy thinks enough of it to put it forward for BACIT to get involved.
In no way is this a bad thing IMO. The risk from our (long term holder) perspective remains. Failure is a very real option. But if it does work SAR are a company with 2 potentially £1bn products under development and moving towards human trials. Plus others less advanced.
Tim will deal at some stage before those sort of values are realised, but with each little bit of progress, the price goes up.
a nice comment on toxicology in the Feb update would be very nice. But Tim and others have stated trials expected to start on 2 fronts around the end of the year. The decision everyone needs to make is what will the price be at that time?
A £10m Mcap reflects the risk. I think it is low but we are where we are. But with all of the potential, the rewards do seem to outweigh the risks.
Sold out the holding before the last agm hence didn't attend.. Seems to be settled at this price and now most projects are partnered I can't see strong price drivers until trials begin.. This is a long play this one but the rewards could be massive if just one of the molecules starts to progress through trials.. Shares like Summ and Sclp took quite a while to get going but look at them now.. Will watch and wait for a couple more months.. gl fella.
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