About 80% of drugs don't make it through clinical trials. Sareum has a limited pipeline of drugs and a couple of years of work left to complete. They have funds until early 2015 (1-year) but expect further fundraising would be needed 'once formal application for approval for Phase 1 clinical trials [of CHK1] is scheduled'. At a share price of 0.5p and with one (and possibly two) fundraisings expected within the next year or so -- considerable dilution can be expected. The share price has also not responded favorably to positive news in recent months. Overall, taking a 3+ year view the upside is potentially good, but for current investors this could be dead money for the next year at least. all imho.
You keep mentioning that news is due. Which you have said over and over and OVER again. I have a question for you. How do you KNOW it is due? I can post a 100 times a day saying its due. Sure as eggs are eggs news will come. Thanks for your input but maybe its time to fork off! Its nice to be positive but its obvious to long termers you are here on behalf of someone else. If you was ballanced in your views i would consider actually asking you questions to learn more. As far as i know with no figures released from china that means no upfront payment. Until news comes thats exactly what it is. You also keep saying we are way undervalued. How is Sar undervalued with no income? Thanks. Rich
So the chances of something starting phase 1 actually making it to approval is less than 10% according to this and just about everything else I've seen. Most also say oncology have higher failure rates just because of what the drugs have to do. I can't find the link but I also read that in general one third pass phase 1 and this is by far the hardest stage to overcome. Some of the failures will not have had the involvement of such high calibre partners, but some (if not most) will have had the backing of big pharma. Each one will have had expectations of success, else why pay for the trials in the first place? It's just the nature of the game. You kiss enough frogs, you will find a prince. Big pharma start loads of trials. Most fail but sometimes it makes it and when it does, the rewards more than cover the cost of all of the failures. That's why drugs cost so much.
I would agree that anything positive said about either toxicology study could see us back over 1p if it is really good but it will probably drift back a bit when people realise when trials wil start and how long they will take. Just my opinion and nearly always wrong when guessing the price :)
If and when trials start, any good news could see it really take off. And at any point a deal could be announced. But the longer we wait for that, the higher the price. Barring any bad news of course.
hello Bookie, I believe you have to pay circa 1500 dollars for the privilage of this information. This information is only gathered from reports etc. If you didnt want companies to take advantage and speculate then you would not release the information. Supposing SAR have no toxicology problems with CHK1 or any other of the compounds. Would you want the world and all its contents knowing this before patents are granted and finalised. Surely for shareholder interest you would keep schtumm and release the info when close to or into trial period or indeed selling the licence
Good day to you sir. Positive news on toxicology in a February update would in my opinion lift the SP past the 1p per share stage. News of the trial or trials starting would make very little difference as we are informed of trials expected to start around the end of the year. SAR being tight lipped, so in this instance I dont see them releasing much information regards to progress. However, as they expect trials to start at the end of the year then I would assume they are very aware of any toxicology problems encountered at the moment, Until positive news is recieved regarding the effectiveness of the use for CHK1 in the trial periods then I dont see how the SP can really gain ground. We can speculate as much as we like but in reality all we can do is wait. Failure is a possible outcome, but what is the probability of failure? I dont know and would not even want to hazzard a guess. A considerable amount of research, time and effort by world class companies have put CHK1 where it is today, for that reason and in my opinion i see the probability of success more of a likely outcome then failure. Regards
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