weve been sort of told no activity this year, so takes us into 2015. Mobilisation of seismic equipment, carrying out seismics and interpretation will take us into 2017, finding a rig to contract and mobilisation would take us to 2018.
Im not being pessimistic here, seismic and interpretation takes a long time, at least 12 months, there are many examples of it taking longer, including Georgia and Punty for RRL. Finding a rig again and mobilisation would take months, site prep last time took months.
Being generous, with no problems or security/political issues, I believe this takes us into 2018. Throw in the inevitable delays and that why I think its unlikely this decade.
Bobo: Agree (obviously that) Trinidad must be the focus and it (obviously) will be. Not sure if they'd be lucky to drill another well there this decade. I think if the partners had plenty of funds to spare they could probably drill another Dharoor once almost immediately (though they'd probably do some more seismic first obviously). But yeah - it's one to keep because of the potential - no immediate impending cost and see how things progress in the region.
RSRs not letting go because maybe one day there may be an opportunity to revisit, and there are no financial obligations in the near future.
Its just my opinion, and im sure many will disagree, but RRL will be lucky to drill another well in Puntland this decade. Even if a farm in partner is found to fund drilling (and I know shell is being dribbled) they will not commit to a well without 3D seismic which would put any rig mobilisation back 2-3 years from now.
The entire focus of RRL MUST be Trinidad for the next 2-3 years minimum.
Probably more to do with the 1m blocker posted from the off at 2.3p, purposely placed to flush out a few wavering holders.
Consolidating above 2.2p is key - looks like a repeat of yesterday when the ask was loaded early on and got taken out later in the day for a nice blue finish. Buyers trying to pick up a few on the cheap, once they realise there are no more mugs below 2.2p the bid will have to strengthen.
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