We would always want a company of Shell's quality to farm-in to Puntland offshore. I expect it is a question of not if but when. It maybe better for both parties to come to an agreement now even though drilling is a long way into the future
the hold up is the seismics. AOI said they wouldn't drill without better seismic coverage. Getting the equipment into Punty is a major task in itself, then operating over 1000s of sqkm safely is a massive undertaking. Even if they got some equipment in there early next year they wont have interpretation and drill targets until 2017, just simply wont happen.
Don't get me wrong, I don't want us to start drilling there tomorrow, we can't afford it! Just let's just say money was no object for a second - I think it would be fair problem impossible for them to be drilling Dharoor again by the end of next year (I don't think it will happen either) - if they wanted.
weve been sort of told no activity this year, so takes us into 2015. Mobilisation of seismic equipment, carrying out seismics and interpretation will take us into 2017, finding a rig to contract and mobilisation would take us to 2018.
Im not being pessimistic here, seismic and interpretation takes a long time, at least 12 months, there are many examples of it taking longer, including Georgia and Punty for RRL. Finding a rig again and mobilisation would take months, site prep last time took months.
Being generous, with no problems or security/political issues, I believe this takes us into 2018. Throw in the inevitable delays and that why I think its unlikely this decade.
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