This post is just for those who haven't taken a position yet and rampers and derampers should kindly refrain from commenting.
Fundamental news is paramount for this equity. Technical analysis looks bearish while fundamental news leaves room for optimism though not yet confirmed through BOPD figures.
Technical analysis - The RSI is at 35, it hasn't gone below 20 which means that there 'could' (NOT will or should) be a further move to the downside as RSI is a lagging indicator of sentiment which in this case is easily a reflection on the current quarterly because the last RNS hasn't offered anything positive vis-à-vis production numbers. This is not my opinion, this is the market reaction. Any RSI below 50 is a bearish indication. An RSI 'can' (NOT will or should) remain in oversold or overbought territory for any time period ranging from days to months depending on the equity and average volume traded.
The MACD is just about to drop below the signal line which is also a bearish indicator. This doesn't mean the the share 'will' or 'should' further consolidate, it 'could'.
The price broke beneath the 50day moving average which is generally speaking a bearish sign. This is not opinion, it is a general technical understanding. All in all Technical analysis offers little comfort here at the moment.
However, this is not to say there aren't fundamental positives.
Positives - These remain in the area of 'new guys, new range, increased production to look forward to, no OKAP etc'
This share will only gain proper momentum when positive price-sensitive news is released reflection production or the sale of an asset.
Bottom line - set email alerts, wake up early, check news, if the news is good - open a position to the long side. In the meantime where the share is going is anybody's guess and if anybody suggests it's going one way or another it is just that - a guess. It 'can' move up, it 'can' move down BUT, in the absence of news 'can' is the word, not 'should' and definitely not 'will'.
Pay attention to your common sense and pick your entry points wisely. Some may want to open positions 'if' the share retraces to the 200 day moving average as this can be a strong support line. On the other hand if positive news comes from Texas before the share hits the 200MA 'if' it does, then that is a decent buy signal. If Citation Resources releases flow rates that give range a 150-200 BOPD cut, that is also a decent buy signal.
Fundamental news is more important here than technical analysis for the long term in the short term technical analysis doesn't offer much short-term positivity. This is why the share is a generally speculative buy.
High hopes aside, the BOPD (which people who know the share well, were not expecting to rise yet) hasn't increased so the real story (interim Texas/IOP loan payback etc aside) will emerge around the next quarterly.
Rig 2 was the only rig drilling in May so that was a quick turn round and sometime this month we should get an update on Trinidad.
To have 5 development rigs working is excellent and hopefully the increased cash-flow can be used to get rig 7 all the parts it needs. Presumably they will be working on it since they will not want the engineers doing nothing although if I remember correctly they were working on 3 of the 6 production/swab rigs.
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