As I said at the beginning of my post 'fundamental news is paramount for this equity' followed at the end with 'fundamental news is more important than technical analysis for the long term'.
And I will write whatever I believe is pertinent to the discussion which I conduct for people who also acknowledge that with any share including this one, technical analysis has a place in the discussion regardless on what you believe.
And for your information - which I shouldn't need to tell you because you have the same access to charting software as anybody else with an internet connection, this equity traded below the 50 day MA since April of last year and then when the 25 crossed over the the 50 at the same time as the MACD moved over the signal line there was a significant move to the upside where profits of over 300% have been realised. I know you aren't ignorant in believing that shares move up without consolidation and you should know full well why the share retraced - that knowledge is founded in common sense and no I won't spell it out for you.
My post was balanced and this is a website for both types of analysis. If you don't like what I write you can by all means filter me and not waste my time by making impertinent suggestions and obnoxious comments…. 'You' sound more like you don't like the negative reality that technical analysis offers at this moment in time rather than paying attention to the whole post which (no doubt I need to repeat myself) was focused more on fundamentals as a price moving indicator. Your comments sound more like a disgruntled ramper than an investor or trader with a balanced view.
Are you suggesting I am somehow adding hype to this BB? I don't offer hype one way or another as is clear to see from what I have written.
Do you own research - yes that is good advice if not a complete cliché.
This post is just for those who haven't taken a position yet and rampers and derampers should kindly refrain from commenting.
Fundamental news is paramount for this equity. Technical analysis looks bearish while fundamental news leaves room for optimism though not yet confirmed through BOPD figures.
Technical analysis - The RSI is at 35, it hasn't gone below 20 which means that there 'could' (NOT will or should) be a further move to the downside as RSI is a lagging indicator of sentiment which in this case is easily a reflection on the current quarterly because the last RNS hasn't offered anything positive vis-à-vis production numbers. This is not my opinion, this is the market reaction. Any RSI below 50 is a bearish indication. An RSI 'can' (NOT will or should) remain in oversold or overbought territory for any time period ranging from days to months depending on the equity and average volume traded.
The MACD is just about to drop below the signal line which is also a bearish indicator. This doesn't mean the the share 'will' or 'should' further consolidate, it 'could'.
The price broke beneath the 50day moving average which is generally speaking a bearish sign. This is not opinion, it is a general technical understanding. All in all Technical analysis offers little comfort here at the moment.
However, this is not to say there aren't fundamental positives.
Positives - These remain in the area of 'new guys, new range, increased production to look forward to, no OKAP etc'
This share will only gain proper momentum when positive price-sensitive news is released reflection production or the sale of an asset.
Bottom line - set email alerts, wake up early, check news, if the news is good - open a position to the long side. In the meantime where the share is going is anybody's guess and if anybody suggests it's going one way or another it is just that - a guess. It 'can' move up, it 'can' move down BUT, in the absence of news 'can' is the word, not 'should' and definitely not 'will'.
Pay attention to your common sense and pick your entry points wisely. Some may want to open positions 'if' the share retraces to the 200 day moving average as this can be a strong support line. On the other hand if positive news comes from Texas before the share hits the 200MA 'if' it does, then that is a decent buy signal. If Citation Resources releases flow rates that give range a 150-200 BOPD cut, that is also a decent buy signal.
Fundamental news is more important here than technical analysis for the long term in the short term technical analysis doesn't offer much short-term positivity. This is why the share is a generally speculative buy.
High hopes aside, the BOPD (which people who know the share well, were not expecting to rise yet) hasn't increased so the real story (interim Texas/IOP loan payback etc aside) will emerge around the next quarterly.
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