HRN has been in discussion with several oilers re potential puntland farm out for many months now (see my post previously). So, the latest HRN presentation just confirmed that. perhaps we should get confirmation of new additional partner very soon, could be weeks!!
so, by end of June 2014, RMP could well be 20p just for the expectation on Puntland. see analysis here in WS: ===========================
lets assume that HRN will start drilling in Puntland again in Jan 2015. Remember, they have to drill 2 wells before Oct 2015, so its possible they can drill much earlier (ie later this year). But for argument sake, assume they will start drilling in Jan 2015, ie around 7 mths from now.
Now, lets compare with the first drilling we did in 2012. The first puntland was drilled 17th Jan 2012. so, 7 mths prior to that would be around June 2011.
in 24 June 2011 (i chose this date as easy to check sp in google):
__________________RRL__________RMP no of shares= __1706.9m_______189.7m share price = ____15.5p________27.6p market cap.= ___£264.6m_______£52.3m
so, now in June 2014, ie 7 mths from the expected puntland drilling, we should be around similar market cap as pre puntland drilling above.
ie by end of June 2014:
__________________RRL________RMP market cap.= ___£264.6m_______£52.3m no of shares= __5162.7m_______266.2m sp SHOULD BE= ____5.1p________19.6p
so, just on puntland alone, for simplicity, RRL should be around 5p and RMP around 20p by end of June 2014. (ideally, will need to take account cash balance as well which for example RMP now has cash around 2.8p and any progress from Georgia will be an added bonus),
CALCULATION ON RRL no of shares (i hope i am correct here) RRL no of shares: pre 6th Jun 14= 4,450,368,534 around 6th jun will be trading first tranche of shares issued part of "12m financing", ie 356,188,780
second tranche to be issued will be around 356,188,780 as well.
so, RRL no of shares will be: 4,450,368,534 + 356,188,780 + 356,188,780 = 5,162,746,094
or, should i double counting the tranche issuance, then no of shares would be: 4,450,368,534 + 356,188,780 = 4,806,557,314
if any miscalculation from above, please make correction. approximation and only for guidance.
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