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Royal Mail Share Chat (RMG)



Share Price: 532.50Bid: 532.00Ask: 532.50Change: 10.50 (+2.01%)Riser - Royal Mail
Spread: 0.50Spread as %: 0.09%Open: 534.00High: 535.00Low: 525.50Yesterday’s Close: 522.00


Share Discussion for Royal Mail (RMG)


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richard12345
Posts: 339
Premium Chat Member
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:604.50
View Thread (6)
RE: Fliping Heck
18 Jan '14
@ Stumbler

I have to think about it, financial discipline is very important, the devil works on the details that we overlook.
eg the small print.

as an act of financial indiscipline, the only leeway I am prepared to do is sell SPD right at the last moment, which should free up 1200 quid, then put 600 quid before 24th, and then if the financials on 24th are good to put the other 600 ASAP. if the financials are bad then to sell the first 600 quid. with 600 quid, if I buy 100 shares the value will be the share price as quid!

I think the most likely scenario is RMG drift downwards gradually till 23rd, seems to be the RMG shareprice dynamic, rocket up then drift downwards for many days,

23rd could be optimal, that SPD could rise till then and RMG could drift downwards till then,

the share that I moved the RMG money to has been regaining, perhaps it will be in profit by 24th, in which case I can liberate some money. but it has some distance to go before it breaks even.

I would have more money had I not sold out, but the error wasnt the selling, but that I rebought too much too quickly. Had I not done that, I could have rebought RMG with profit. I estimated then that profit likely before 24th.

what charting method do you use to decide when to buy?

so far I have tended to do it by eye, because charting techniques usually cannot handle fundamentals.

provided I have high resolution intraday data, I can discern a lot just from looking at the graph, its very similar to the ocean. sometimes the ocean is calm, and sometimes there are big waves. by watching a wave you can tell a lot about what is happening.

at the moment I quit the charting software subscription, as that is now 99 quid a month, which eats into profits. I am now using free charting, eg moneyam.com suggested here some days ago. Also ProRealTime.com gives quality free end of day charting. I will probably subscribe to either moneyam.com or ProRealTime.com charting.

I noticed that with say moneyam.com, the blue graph of their stochastic when low seems to correlate with good times to buy, right now it is 0, perhaps its an optimal time to buy SPD. But I havent studied stochastic, there are so many indicators. But I recollect at uni some academic specialising in probability saying that big financial firms are particularly interested in stochastics. I dont know if this is the same stochastics!

moneyam.com has a cool portfolio facility, where you can see the prices of all the shares in one table, including the volumes. it uses a lot of colours which is visually interesting. the colours highlight any number that has changed. you can order the portfolio by daily gain, which is useful for monitoring shares to buy.
 
Stumbler
Posts: 501
Observation
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:604.50
View Thread (4)
RE: Q3 announcement in february
17 Jan '14
See yesterdays posting @ 15.44. {For Richard; I should be tempted to buy SPD if it dips to 690p. although did someone post that there might be an overhang as M.A. intended to free some more shares?)
bigsocietymyarse
Posts: 238
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:604.50
View Thread (3)
RE: Dividend Payment ?
17 Jan '14
13p per share (about 6%), payable in July if i remember rightly. don't panic if it drops. a very safe long-term investment here, lots of room for sizeable long term growth (1 year+) plus dividends. much better than your local bank - and probably safer ;-)
Shareologist
Posts: 1
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:603.00
RMG
17 Jan '14
@only1sonofkong, The choice is yours, but don't expect a rise after the 24th. It's logical that there will be some selling activity, people will be taking profits, that could be a good dip.
DoubleDown
Posts: 15
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:605.00
View Thread (3)
RE: Dividend Payment ?
17 Jan '14
I havn't done the math but reports are 14p per share. A whopping £31.78

:)
only1sonofkong
Posts: 146
Question
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:605.00
View Thread (3)
Dividend Payment ?
17 Jan '14
So im still holding my original 227............im trying to decided if im deluded, sensible or stupid but just cant bring myself to sell them

Has anyone spent anytime working out the intended dividend??

From what I can establish the board are intending a £133 Million dividend (would be a £200 Million if a full financial years trading)

from my basic maths £133,000,000 divided by the number of shares in circulation which from the RNS's announcements I have a figure of 299,840,000

which suggests to me a dividend of £0.44 per share, and windfall of therefore £99.88 for an original 227 Nr holder

or based on the £200 Million suggested for a full financial year a £0.67 per share and a nice £152.09 for an original 227 Nr holder

Can anyone suggest if my maths is miles off the mark or if they have any altering views ?

thanks ion advance "an original 227"
Stumbler
Posts: 501
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:608.50
View Thread (6)
Fliping Heck
17 Jan '14
Hi Richard, there are a number of Pats who have posted on these pages to say how busy they are and indicate that we may be in for something good on the 24th. I don't need to say dyor to someone with your knowledge but I think we should all have some exposure to "Vince's Gift" before this date. Therefore I should stop the losses on SPD and take full advantage of the present dip. I don't expect SPD to fall much further but as I have mentioned, investors may be bored waiting for the news and I should expect to be able to flip back into SPD before April, hopefully having made a few £s on RMG. I think that if anyone who delays acting until after 24th, then there may be such a reduced margin that such a flip would not be worth while.GL
richard12345
Posts: 339
Premium Chat Member
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:604.00
View Thread (2)
RE: buying on the rumour
17 Jan '14
@ zenlike

I think your assessments are the most accurate, in my own experience the best explanations are the cynical ones.

I have collected along the way some extremely accurate predictions, and some completely wrong predictions,
the guy who said he was moving his money out temporarily also I think was wise. matt wales?

@ Stumbler

re: SPD, your estimate is correct, I have lost about -60 on about 1300 quid, which is about 4.6%, visually the graph is still safe, but I think it may go down even further. I have faith in the fundamentals, so am prepared to endure a bit of torture before any profits. if it goes too low I will abandon ship.

I leave it to providence whether to buy in on RMG for 24th,

but I dont want to pull the SPD trade. quit maybe, but not pull. if I quit before 24th, then that money can go on RMG.

I need to apply recent lessons on further trades, otherwise I will keep repeating the same errors.

@ hottrader77

I think I have never bought anything ever from House of Frasers. Have often walked around the shop, but its like 50 quid for an unremarkable saucepan, etc.

I have bought some very select things from John Lewis, and various things from Debenhams, but never once from House of Frazers.

but from an investment POV I need to study the prospectus, I dont assume anything.

with the loan scene where I have waded through probably thousands of applications (I have almost 300 loans), I know that the fundamentals are often different from assumptions. eg sometimes there will be a loan request from some PR firm, whose work sounds totally vague and pointless, but the financials will show eg millions of quid of revenue and blue chip clients.

similarly I wont assume Poundland is good until I see the prospectus. with any IPO it depends also on the price.

@ ArcticFox

Gordon Gekko is a fictional figure! a straw man, the film is in fact quite left wing. You have misunderstood the film if you think he is the hero, the hero is his dad the unionist factory worker. Gekko ended up in jail at the end of the film, perhaps you forgot that? He wasnt using any clever trading system, but was CHEATING. So you cannot possibly compare him with any of my comments. also, all trading systems I have seen published are scams.

anyway you have shown your own profound ignorance in completely missing the point of the film, and in equating him with my approach!

tens of thousands also misunderstood the film with you. american propaganda is very sophisticated, it fools basically all young people, and most adults also. and it fooled you!

I dont think I am Gekko! I think Gekko is a cheat, and that my own techniques are quite sound. I make mistakes also, but everyone makes mistakes. You know that a gekko is a lizard, even the name is straw.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Tokay_Gecko.jpg
zenlike
Posts: 188
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:604.00
View Thread (2)
buying on the rumour
16 Jan '14
Could the price be rising on the rumour of good results for traders to exit on the news and sp to fall.
Probably,and create another buying op.
Stumbler
Posts: 501
Answer
Opinion:Buy
Price:604.00
View Thread (2)
RE: by the book
16 Jan '14
Cut your losses Richard. SPD is an exceptional Company but I can't understand haw anyone with your discipline could have bought at near a top when the charts indicated a correction. I mentioned at the time that I should have sold and taken a £8.79 loss but you must now be down some £55, on this share and this during a period when repurchased RMS would have shown over 25p. per share profit. I have mentioned a case when I followed a share and invested more in line with my paper profits as the share rocketed. as can happen, then the bubble burst. You know much more and are much are more certain with the loan market.



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