I have to think about it, financial discipline is very important, the devil works on the details that we overlook. eg the small print.
as an act of financial indiscipline, the only leeway I am prepared to do is sell SPD right at the last moment, which should free up 1200 quid, then put 600 quid before 24th, and then if the financials on 24th are good to put the other 600 ASAP. if the financials are bad then to sell the first 600 quid. with 600 quid, if I buy 100 shares the value will be the share price as quid!
I think the most likely scenario is RMG drift downwards gradually till 23rd, seems to be the RMG shareprice dynamic, rocket up then drift downwards for many days,
23rd could be optimal, that SPD could rise till then and RMG could drift downwards till then,
the share that I moved the RMG money to has been regaining, perhaps it will be in profit by 24th, in which case I can liberate some money. but it has some distance to go before it breaks even.
I would have more money had I not sold out, but the error wasnt the selling, but that I rebought too much too quickly. Had I not done that, I could have rebought RMG with profit. I estimated then that profit likely before 24th.
what charting method do you use to decide when to buy?
so far I have tended to do it by eye, because charting techniques usually cannot handle fundamentals.
provided I have high resolution intraday data, I can discern a lot just from looking at the graph, its very similar to the ocean. sometimes the ocean is calm, and sometimes there are big waves. by watching a wave you can tell a lot about what is happening.
at the moment I quit the charting software subscription, as that is now 99 quid a month, which eats into profits. I am now using free charting, eg moneyam.com suggested here some days ago. Also ProRealTime.com gives quality free end of day charting. I will probably subscribe to either moneyam.com or ProRealTime.com charting.
I noticed that with say moneyam.com, the blue graph of their stochastic when low seems to correlate with good times to buy, right now it is 0, perhaps its an optimal time to buy SPD. But I havent studied stochastic, there are so many indicators. But I recollect at uni some academic specialising in probability saying that big financial firms are particularly interested in stochastics. I dont know if this is the same stochastics!
moneyam.com has a cool portfolio facility, where you can see the prices of all the shares in one table, including the volumes. it uses a lot of colours which is visually interesting. the colours highlight any number that has changed. you can order the portfolio by daily gain, which is useful for monitoring shares to buy.
13p per share (about 6%), payable in July if i remember rightly. don't panic if it drops. a very safe long-term investment here, lots of room for sizeable long term growth (1 year+) plus dividends. much better than your local bank - and probably safer ;-)
Hi Richard, there are a number of Pats who have posted on these pages to say how busy they are and indicate that we may be in for something good on the 24th. I don't need to say dyor to someone with your knowledge but I think we should all have some exposure to "Vince's Gift" before this date. Therefore I should stop the losses on SPD and take full advantage of the present dip. I don't expect SPD to fall much further but as I have mentioned, investors may be bored waiting for the news and I should expect to be able to flip back into SPD before April, hopefully having made a few £s on RMG. I think that if anyone who delays acting until after 24th, then there may be such a reduced margin that such a flip would not be worth while.GL
I think your assessments are the most accurate, in my own experience the best explanations are the cynical ones.
I have collected along the way some extremely accurate predictions, and some completely wrong predictions, the guy who said he was moving his money out temporarily also I think was wise. matt wales?
re: SPD, your estimate is correct, I have lost about -60 on about 1300 quid, which is about 4.6%, visually the graph is still safe, but I think it may go down even further. I have faith in the fundamentals, so am prepared to endure a bit of torture before any profits. if it goes too low I will abandon ship.
I leave it to providence whether to buy in on RMG for 24th,
but I dont want to pull the SPD trade. quit maybe, but not pull. if I quit before 24th, then that money can go on RMG.
I need to apply recent lessons on further trades, otherwise I will keep repeating the same errors.
I think I have never bought anything ever from House of Frasers. Have often walked around the shop, but its like 50 quid for an unremarkable saucepan, etc.
I have bought some very select things from John Lewis, and various things from Debenhams, but never once from House of Frazers.
but from an investment POV I need to study the prospectus, I dont assume anything.
with the loan scene where I have waded through probably thousands of applications (I have almost 300 loans), I know that the fundamentals are often different from assumptions. eg sometimes there will be a loan request from some PR firm, whose work sounds totally vague and pointless, but the financials will show eg millions of quid of revenue and blue chip clients.
similarly I wont assume Poundland is good until I see the prospectus. with any IPO it depends also on the price.
Gordon Gekko is a fictional figure! a straw man, the film is in fact quite left wing. You have misunderstood the film if you think he is the hero, the hero is his dad the unionist factory worker. Gekko ended up in jail at the end of the film, perhaps you forgot that? He wasnt using any clever trading system, but was CHEATING. So you cannot possibly compare him with any of my comments. also, all trading systems I have seen published are scams.
anyway you have shown your own profound ignorance in completely missing the point of the film, and in equating him with my approach!
tens of thousands also misunderstood the film with you. american propaganda is very sophisticated, it fools basically all young people, and most adults also. and it fooled you!
I dont think I am Gekko! I think Gekko is a cheat, and that my own techniques are quite sound. I make mistakes also, but everyone makes mistakes. You know that a gekko is a lizard, even the name is straw.
Cut your losses Richard. SPD is an exceptional Company but I can't understand haw anyone with your discipline could have bought at near a top when the charts indicated a correction. I mentioned at the time that I should have sold and taken a £8.79 loss but you must now be down some £55, on this share and this during a period when repurchased RMS would have shown over 25p. per share profit. I have mentioned a case when I followed a share and invested more in line with my paper profits as the share rocketed. as can happen, then the bubble burst. You know much more and are much are more certain with the loan market.
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