Been out all morning. With the astonishing momentum built up yesterday and signs of a continuance this morning I've returned to find it's back to opening price to (circa buy 180p). If it's taking a breather it's a little bit ominous (to me) to be taking the breather at this morning's opening after scaling the higher 180's. Was expecting to see the shoreline of 190's within spitting distance today, and maybe take a breather there, because of that momentum - maybe.
Whatever, with the benefit of hindsight is it possible that after yesterday's performance and so far today's not negative performance, that last Thursday and Friday was just an old fashioned tree shake?
If the ominous current breather of the SP turns bearish then it would appear not only are the lows getting lower, and the highs also getting lower but the channel between the two getting shallower. Perhaps indicating increasing shorter anxiety, compared to earlier months of almost laissez faire attitude of letting the SP go off on long hikes upwards before being reeled in?
not stricly true if you operate under a dispensation as in self-certificating, whereby you make an application for a sum and you raise the tax invoice upon receipt of the same. Whether applicable in this particular circumstance I cannot say..... however in WIP applications it most certainly is.
Wow, prolific commentary QPP1000. I'm inclined to agree with most of your set up heading into and just after the RNS with the exception of the role that shorters played. I have no way of knowing what role they played over the past week although I personally suspect it was actually minimal - but that is pure speculation.
But the drop and newsflow from journos rehashing the same threads over and over again did play its part in causing clear investor eupohria from the rally over the previous few days to turn into depression at the shock of seeing the stock tank against expectations. 'Haven't QPP put all those nasty bears to bed with that rebuttal of TW?' we all thought. But that was missing the point because the whole crux of this unwind has always been about cashflow (cash profits).
The manic negative newsflow did lead to some panic selling but it was far less than previous panic selling days (see volume charts). That indicated diminishing selling pressure which in turn set up for a stronger base from which to rally. The 'charts' looked (and still do) very interesting from both a bearish and bullish angle. If they now resolve themselves in a bullish way (we really do need to get above 270-280p), then much much higher prices are to come.
I also believe the capitulation low (the emotional low) is now behind us and only materially bad news that directly affects forecast cashflows will invalidate this. These earnings alone (with cashflow following on) are enough to propel the stock 3-4x even if RAC is significantly restructured and even if minimal new business is announced before year end.
As for replacing the FD... yes, perhaps longer term (say 9-12 months from now) but not from this relatively weak position. Make the change into strength on confirmation of imrpoving cashflow otherwise it will be interpreted as yet another red flag.
Not that it matters much, but I think you have some good insights even if I can't quite find myself agreeing with everything you write.
I am long QPP, I think some may suspect me of being a wolf in sheep's clothing because I try and see it from both sides, irrespective of whether I'm in or out of the money. It's the only way any of us will ever make rational, informed investment decisions.
Pretty much agree with your analysis. Havent been analysing to that much detail myself but I was expecting a drop on results day. Luckily covered myself! I dont agree with replacing the accountant as any move by him to step down may upset the market. Appoint the new FTSE100 accountant first and then announce the swap maybe. I refuse to see how that would benefit the company in the long term so i highly doubt Quindell would take this option - they are happy to let recent/future results do the talking and so am I, there is no need to attract attention or make financially deterimental decisions like this. It would be much easier for RT to concentrate on getting the RAC deal up and running and that would secure future growth and see the SP rerate back up. I think the SP is doing quite well and at least bounced back a little since last week. My average is 190 lowered it to 185 last week but then tried to be too smart, taking it back up to 190. If you are watch this stock 24/7 then i think you may have invested too much. I have a relatively small "core" holding and only watch like a hawk when i increase (or double) my holding on good news or after over-sell. This helps me sleep easier at night and keeps me sane. With my current holdings i couldnt care less if Quindell crashes and burns - although i secretly know it wont happen. GL
Poolie - i spent 3 hours writing that on Sunday morning ! But I thought it was important to get that out there and I hope it helps lots of people to understand the shenanigans that are going on in this stock. Actually I view that short attack on Thursday as a sign of weakness because it maybe shows how worried they were at that point. What I cannot understand is why the press are not looking at this situation, doing a little bit of analysis, and then writing a story about what may really be going on here. Maybe I should send that to the FT editor ? Pity my daughter doesn't work for Pearson anymore as Deputy Company Secretary ! Atb and thanks....Chris
Perhaps those who have some doubts or questions should contact HMRC and ask them to clarify the correct accounting procedure for a PLC company such as Quindell.
Im sure HMRC might be very interested as to why Quindell are paying tax on revenues they have yet to receive...............But maybe not as it could just be THAT IS THE RULES on how they are LEGALLY OBLIGED to report?
Seems like a lot of "so called journalists" are in the wrong job, saying as they claim to know a lot more than KPMG and HMRC?
ERV1 - thank you for your kind words. I do need a bit of encouragement every now and then ! Its nearly 7 pm here so I am winding down nicely. Its good to see that there are not so many posts per day as in the recent past. I think that is a good sign and maybe people are getting a little more relaxed. Understanding what is going on here is key to deciding whether you have the stomach to see this through. Atb. Chris
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