I think its a straightforward case of a new field that has had five wells put on production over a short timeframe, these wells are flowing under natural pressures and producing a very high quality oil grade so there is more than a 90% chance it is just some loose sands still laying around after the initial drilling.It is normal practice to "run the lines through" over a set period after the strike to clear any additional materials left from the drilling but sometimes you get a few bits and bobs still in the system if the well goes on production too quick.A quick glance at the timelines since they started at ARB shows they have been working very quickly with one well after another being drilled and put on production.Also note that they are producing double the amount of oil already from the field than they expected at the start ( average 318 bopd per well currently - against the 150 bopd expected ) so that also points to them if anything having more pressures in these wells than expected at the start and a mix of varying the choke pressures and clearing the lines should balance things up. In short it is a nice problem to have as opposed the other way.
Hello sir i think you almost mirrored my entry here ! if you look at the news they put out yesterday they have said in simple terms that they have another successful production well and will be at 3000 bopd + soon,when they put the other wells back online.So like you say it was a crazy drop on what effectively was a good news item just that the news of 3000 bopd + will be a few weeks away. I also remembered this morning that they have a few wells offline at the other field due back online around now which should be another 150-200 bopd added soon.
So in short by the time of next well result they could be at 3200 bopd region and whatever the latest well delivers,and i also thought there was a clue in the rns that the problems with the wells offline was not of a serious nature as they would not now be drilling ahead on the new well.
Well I is pretty confident here.:) Was in before Xmas for the end of year report that wells were fixed and running.... It didn't come and I gambled on a chance to get back in cheaper upon delay/bad news.
It came,but the news was so 'unbad'(I like making up words) I thought I'd blown it,but the crazy drop let me in cheaper than I was in the first place.
Maaarvellous. 20% markup re-invested lower.
Long-termers will get their profit. Slice n add the name of the game. :)
Some comments by davy research out yesterday worth a look,also mentioned farmout too at end.
Field production is not optimised yet:
The Arbuzovskoye field has not flowed at optimum rates yet. Rates have declined by a combined total of around 300 barrels per day in two wells. The exact reasons are unclear but probably relate to blockage of the perforation in the production tubing and/or pressure decline in the wells in question. In the first instance, the problem should be resolved through a work-over and the pressure decline issue can be offset by pressure support in the reservoir through water injection. Water pressure support has already been successfully employed in the adjacent Linenoye reservoir which is producing to plan. If all wells were making a contribution, the combined total would be a little over 3,000 b/d.
No change in valuation or views on financial position:
We value the group at 23p per share based on the reserves and resources established in licences 61 and 67 in the Tomsk Oblast in western Siberia. The debt rescheduling programme agreed in 2012 remains in place and current average output per well of 150-200 b/d is sufficient to meet all repayment programmes. Drilling of the Arbuzovskoye field will continue until the ten-well programme is completed. Separately, work on the farm-out of its licence continues.
Yes we will see in next TR1,s or holdings updates,i understand there were a few in the last placing that wanted far more but missed out so they are maybe the likely candidate,s.Bottom line is another successful well at arb after the last four and some seasonal effects on other wells to be sorted but i think the next total production update will be an eye opener if all the offlines are back and 112 online.That is why i hugely increased my stake here today :-)
PetroNeft Resources (LON:PTR) – Announcement Says More Than Just Lower Production: Today’s operational update does not make for good reading, as there are now (i) operational issues; (ii) questions over technical competency; and (iii) questions over engineering competency. In October 2012, we highlighted our concerns that: “…given that the ambient temperature is well below freezing, there is a concern growing that management may be too far away from the nub of the action to assert effective control, which will be more of a concern when production does start to ramp up. Still, better to get these issues ironed out at this stage than be faced with a major issue to tackle later…” In December 2012 the more upbeat update seemed to indicate that what we had initially thought of as being a blip, was indeed the case. Today’s news, however, would point towards a systemic failure, not only in topsides, but also subsurface engineering. While fine sands being entrained with produced fluids is not a concern, the fact that this new is an issue; we will comment on more later. This is compounded by the fact that reservoir is showing unexpected signs of declining pressure. The announcement also details the fact that cold temperatures have impeded growth, a follow-up to the October announcement detailing the same issue. These three issues point towards a troubling pattern, the surprise at the reservoir performance indicates a poorly designed, or hurried, testing phase, and given that lowest recorded temperature in Tomsk for the last 5 years has been -41C (December 2010) (as provided by Wunderground), that the topsides equipment is not designed for these temperatures, raises serious questions over whether the management team have really thought through everything before pressing ahead with their development. We would now have questions not only of the reported 2P numbers (as a minimum a review will now have to be undertaken), but whether a root and branch of the Company’s operational review needs to take place. In this news: • Arbuzovskoye well 112 successfully completed • No water production associated with the well • Initial oil flow rate of 140 bopd, well presently shut-in for pressure build up testing • Well 105 currently drilling ahead • Production from two Arbuzovskoye wells temporarily reduced by c300 bopd due to mechanical issues; expected to be fixable by workover or pressure maintenance • Total production running at 2,600 bopd; excludes 400+ bopd potential from well 112 and the two mechanically reduced Arbuzovskoye wells. ------------------------------------------------------------------------
If this is the general analyst view, it's not a nice one, and explains today's hammering.
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