agree with your post. us ''small investors'' were wandering why the SP had gone from 70p to 50 ish. This was because the ''big boys'' knew about the sales decline and the SP reflects this. From now we are buying on recovery hopes. Point to note is, as far as year end results are concerned, a bad wet summer can really have a positive impact. This along with cost savings may result in year end being slightly better than forecast.
more, typed post before finishing. The question to ask, is this is unique to PFD's Products or down to the general subdued markets. I personally do not feel this is unique to PFD, so expecting other companies to give warnings.
However the company has a lot to learn about giving guidance, for example under promising and over delivering. I just hope they bear this in mind when giving further guidance.
The market would not have been expecting PFD to meet the YTD targets, if they were then the share price would then have been closer to 100p ( P/E around 10). So today's announcement already well priced in before this week's falls.
The question to ask is if this is unique to PFD's Prod or down to the general subdued markets.
Sales growth in the second quarter was, due to the timing of Easter (the reason given for Q1 being so poor) supposed to be positive so for them now to say it will be negative is bad.
This business already has very high margins so for them to say sales down but profit the same says margins will go even higher! As for profit expectations remaining unchanged - this business just has no credibility - too many times they've come out with confident assertions about how everything will be alright, only to disappoint.
Picking up from the other comments from insiders, this business has already cut costs to the bone - further cuts really means less advertising, less innovation and therefore sales will continue to fall.
This business needs to demonstrate that it knows how to get sales growing and quick otherwise debt will become an issue again. It will be interesting to see what they say at the analyst day.
Until PFD comes with the other any other good news this share price is going to keep on falling,,, Better to be out now than later,,,, For the shareholders here next few weeks going to be bad,,, But for long term it should pick up,,, Looking up to invest if it reaches 40P. It could reach 40 P in few weeks for a buy back ,,,, Will see
I've read http://www.premierfoods.co.uk/news-&-media/press-releases/press-release.cfm?i=AD9549D0-1851-505D-DF39-59C93F179E08 a couple of times and can't seem to understand why the shareprice would drop 10%. There was nothing in Press Release that wasn't expected looking at the market conditions. Something to highlight in the press release is "While Power Brands sales for the second quarter are anticipated to be negative and below the Company’s expectations due to subdued grocery markets, profit expectations for the twelve months to 31 December 2014 remain unchanged, reflecting the Company’s ongoing focus on managing its costs." So overall there isn't really any negative news or am I missing something.
"While Power Brands sales for the second quarter are anticipated to be negative and below the company's expectations due to subdued grocery markets, profit expectations for the twelve months to 31 December 2014 remain unchanged," the company said in a statement.
Currently analysts expect Premier Foods to post pretax profit of 82 million pounds ($138 million) for 2014 according to Thomson Reuters
I can't help but think that despite PFD having some iconic brands in its portfolio, the company is facing a perfect storm. A number of the Brands are in declining markets (which had to be one of the reasons for selling off Robertson's). The weather is constantly blamed for poor sales performance (and the weather ain't renowned for its accommodating stance). The only retailers doing well right now are the discounters such as Lidl and Aldi who frown on selling renowned brands and love lesser-known brands or own-label stuff (that Premier don't want to make). PFD's portfolio is still too focussed on cold-weather products - curries, gravy, stuffing, cooking sauces etc. It needs more year-round products to balance trading performance - more NPD and, dare I say it when we're all still reeling from the acquisition spree that almost killed the company off, perhaps to buy in a complementary product range or two.
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