Im taking some comfort, that almost certainly now, the sellers / shorters have finally run out of steam after what was an eternity of never ending drift. We now look to have consolidated with some strength at this level. I truly believe this is now sat on its ass waiting for some buying interest which will surely see us on out way again....and the words 'about time' seem an understatement.
Bring on the Production news and CPR Rita...lets get some cheer back into this excellent share.
Poacher - I agree this situation is laughable. In this day and age, why all trades from all trading platforms cannot be reported in one place is beyond me.
As the world becomes more and more IT connected and savvy, so it seems that any old trick is used to disguise reality when it comes to share trading and duping PIs.
It is the same with reporting buys and sells AS buys and sells. When I deal via HL, each transaction is clearly indicated as a BUY or SELL - excuses that the information is difficult to report is just a smoke screen.
Notice they have only reported 5k of the buys on LSE, but the 50k no probs!, They have tried hiding the trades on ISDX, now their just not reporting the reported buys on LSE, perhaps next they will imprint a brown paper bag of the blue trades...
Although I agree that the figures are indicative we are comparing like with like (end of year with end of year), so my expectation remains a boepd for 31/12/2013 of between 280 and 300.
Also:- Growth in 2012 was 194% (to $0.7m) Growth in 2013 in line with market expectation of 240% (to $2.4m)
last paragraph ....we are confident that the strong momentum behind Magnolia will continue into the current financial year and beyond.
to me that says we'll do the same again in 2014 (target ... $7.2m)
---------------- I'm sure that it is possible to take the years revenue and estimate the average daily production, so forecasting what it will be come 31/12/2014 - I'll punt now for 820boepd. That's higher than I expected, but it whats the calculator says... interesting.
Good thinking MrE. PDP was $7.2mill so if increased by 1/3 now equals at least $9.6 mill.
Incidentally the RBL as % of PDP would be 16.67% so the bankers are still being quite conservative IMO but then I don't know these industry standards.
I'm not so sure about your direct correlation with daily production. The revenue figure is a snapshot of the whole year; while the boepd will be a snapshot on one day at the end of the year- which itself was over two months ago (assuming eff date of CPR is 1st Jan). So I think your figure is indicative but understates the present reality.
Under the terms of the credit line, an initial borrowing base limit of US$1.6 million has been set which will be reassessed on a six monthly basis and adjusted in line with the level of Magnolia's Proven Developed Producing reserves (`PDP').
So the credit facility value is based on the PDP, now as the credit limit has increased by 0.5 / 1.6 -> 31.25% I think we can safely assume that the PDP has increased by AT LEAST the same percentage.
Meaning of PDP – reserves that can be recovered via existing wells and through the use of existing equipment and operations.
I would probably go on to argue that PDP is directly correlated to daily production, so 214boepd -> 280boepd+ or Take the 122.5boepd and multiple by 240% -> 294boepd (we all expected that anyway, but its good to get some confirmation)
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