Yes I think you have summed it up there nicely. Its always the same with exploration and production, long lead times with little news. Once farm-in drilling gets under way on any of the LOGP licence areas and with Barryroe being talked about that should give us some more impetus.
IMO the ones that are worth putting cash into from an investors (short term results) point of view right now are the US domestic market where latest technnology favours companies working over old wells, pipelines and using horizontal drilling techniques and fraccing. Very speculative but worth a punt in the short term, plenty of newsflow and every well they redrill doesn't take forever to get a result from. As for all this gas fraccing talk maybe the likes of IGAS will do well in the short term, especially if Big Oil moves in, but I can't help feeling that once the initial flush of excitement is over investors will lose interest.
However once global stock market sentiment improves the likes of LOGP and BPC will really take off if they hit big oil. Its a waiting game with them I am afraid but I try to spread my risks especially where oil is concerned where the rates of cashburn can be massive till you get a (good) result. GL for 2013
Successful drilling and testing of 48/24-10z well with flow rates of 3,514 BOPD and 2.93 MMSCFGD (c. 4,000 BOEPD), which materially exceeded pre-drill expectations (March 2012)
Additional gas interval also successfully tested (March 2012)
Updated Barryroe resource and recovery assessment (based on detailed post-well analysis, updated mapping, and new 3D data) confirmed a large total P50 oil resource potential at Barryroe of 1,821 MMBO (P10 resource of 2,777 MMBO) (July 2012)
Static and dynamic Basal Wealden reservoir analysis modelled recovery factors ranging between 17-41% utilising horizontal production and water injection wells; a 31% recovery factor was used for development planning (October 2012)
P50 P50 OIP REC MMBO RF MMBO Middle Wealden 287 16% 46 Basal Wealden 756 31% 234 1,043 27% 280 Not included Purbeckian 362 NA Lower Wealden 416 NA 778
Development concept engineering contract awarded to Procyon Oil & Gas Limited (June 2012)
Two year Licensing Option granted over adjacent c. 500 sq km area north and west of Barryroe (August 2012)
CPR to be published in late Q1 2013"
I can't see any action in the LOGP for a couple of months based on the news that the Barryroe CPR wont be released until March 2013. Our only hope of an sp movement before then is if news of the 3 prospect farm outs is issued before the Barryroe CPR, IMO.
Extract from O'reilly ramp “The success at Barryroe, further enhanced by detailed post-well analysis, has had an extremely positive impact on both the asset portfolio and the financial well-being of the Company. It has also had a profound effect on the perception of Ireland in the eyes of the international E&P sector.
"For many years, Providence has been strident in its views on the material hydrocarbon prospectivity of offshore Ireland. Barryroe validates this with results that exceeded all expectations, and we now look forward to advancing this large oil project towards development with our partner, Lansdowne, together with potential future farminee(s).
“Barryroe represents a world-class oil resource and its importance should not be underestimated, not just in terms of the future plans for Providence, but also for the renaissance of the wider Irish offshore sector.”
Personally I think he's dead right but not so sure about the Atlantic Margin. Its hard work, time consuming and expensive with likely dry holes. SP will soon tire of no instant results. No, the Celtic Sea is for me, easy stuff in shallow water with quick results and good newsflow. LOGP is the one to be in.
3 charts that make me convinced we are near the bottom for the LOGP sp. I jumped the gun by buying too early, but the reason for my "false start" is because PVR failed to keep to their promised timetable for the new Barryroe CPR. The result of the CPR has been delayed until Q1 2013. Also LOGP's 3 farm outs are taking longer than PI's expected.
PS. NFL. No still in LRL unfortunately!! Rather miffed because LRL have never mentioned no fracking in the Ordus basin, during the winter months, before. I expect the sp to recover in the build up to the 2nd well results due end January.
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