Valuation: DCF-based valuation of £200m While the real-world data and cost-effectiveness analysis have no immediate impact on our valuation or forecasts, they provide further support for our peak sales forecast for Sativex in MS spasticity of £64m. Greater than expected market share/growth and new indications for Sativex, clinical progress in cancer pain or developments with Otsuka (a second US Sativex indication or licensing deal on CNS/cancer candidates from the research collaboration) represent upside to our base-case valuation.
GW Pharmaceuticals, the British biotech firm, has seen clinical data released by partner Almirall that gives further backing for the efficacy of GW's cannabis-based drug, Sativex.
The results of a study in Germany with 300 patients was released at a major conference in France. The study found that Sativex reduced the symptoms of moderate to severe spasticity due to multiple sclerosis.
The data confirmed that after three months, 41% of patients treated with Sativex, who were resistant to other therapies, showed a clinically relevant response.
The medicine has been proven to be a cost-effective treatment in Germany where Almirall has already made it available, as well as Spain and Denmark.
Next year GW Pharma is expecting the results of Phase III study into Sativex's efficacy as a treatment for cancer pain.
GW's cancer pain clinical programme is being wholly funded by Otsuka Pharmaceutical, which has licensed the US commercialisation rights to this product.
Sativex is licensed to Otsuka in the US, Almirall in Europe (excluding the United Kingdom) and Mexico, Bayer HealthCare in the UK and Canada, Novartis Pharma in Australasia, Asia (excluding Japan and China), Middle East (excluding Israel) and Africa, and Neopharm Group in Israel.
Market manipulation by speculators keeping price down. Watch out for some big buys shortly. This share will rocket when the phase 3 cancer pain trials conclude and FDA approval follows. Hold your nerve!
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.