I'm starting to think that GKP is a binary investment. Either the oil will start pumping, the cash flowing and the value rerated or else the oil will be delayed, the debt will capsize the company and all will be lost.
Great returns or total failure, with not much in between.......
Well done bud, I hope so too but I wont hold my breath. One day I suspect things will take a very quick turn for the better and catch a lot of people unawares. Production ramped up or not, the sp here will react to many other factors. An agreement with the new government in Baghdad, the US recognising and buying our oil direct, Johnny Turk openly buying, more II's buying in, Success against ISIS on a bigger scale, etc etc Today was an opportunity for all who could make the most of it and a bad day for the stops.
As we absorb kick in the bow locks number 500 or so, worth considering just how grim things got a few weeks ago with IS in spitting distance of Irbil. SA3 news today was the disappointing thing but more so in how it was pretty much hidden with pitiful levels of information probably because the news had the word water in it. The disposal of our stake in AB looks totally the right way to go as we await the necessary changes re payment timings and production increases at Shaikan. As always, trying to bring on line a monster on a shoe string budget is proving a pretty difficult task. If it was my call i'd put a fixed time frame on bids for AB rather than leaving it open ended with a reserve figure in place to ward off bargain hunters. You'd then know what genuine interest there was from MOL and other parties. This doesn't need doing straight away but we probably again only have a years worth of funding and need a plan B before things get problematic again. Lots of sympathy for JG today as these are genuine reasons for slippage on 40k, the previous shabby timekeeping on production targets plus the state of funding just means time is not a luxury we have. 30-35K by Xmas wouldn't be awful, 20-25k remaining static would.
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