I remain confident that this will go our way. Having followed the case it was clear to me that EX appeared to have a poor case. To demand 30% of a company requires very strong evidence and facts ie written contract which did not seem to be the case. Let's hope so anyway .
If testing of BB proved conductivity between BB and Shaikan what might be the company's strategy. We have all read the great posts about the mind numbing quantities of oil that would be revealed. Genel has posted the BB find now and has held off a more complete report till after the CC has been finalized, which is probably very close indeed.
Can't be accused of withholding information,* just economical with the truth*, in order for potential damage limitation pre CC result.
However once that is out the way, you want full ahead full steam. Genel has stated that it will go into production..on one well???,Why... unless you knew you had much more, which year long tests could have proved already.
What would you do if you were GKP.. well I'd bring out some analysts now and show them the data, proving a huge increase in oil in place... What a blockbuster to follow after the CC, when many quick buck investors will close....Oh are they doing that?? why has the company not booked reserves already I have heard may say... would you if you knew you had a huge potential increase but couldn't announce it till after the CC.
Route to market getting clearer, even GS now rate us a buy. The fact is that Turkey will be more prompt with paying the oil company's as per their contracts that Bagdad ever would. Forget months of deliberate hold up while awaiting brown envelopes from ****stani. On a longer time frame one of my fears was that Bagdad would limit Kurdistan for its OPEC quota. Don't think that'll ever happen now Turkish agreements have been signed. So hold those golden tickets, I've a bottle put by already for the CC outcome, as I fully trust the reports I've had from iii investors in the public gallery.
Some on here may have noticed that i always put out STRONG BUY. I cannot find any other reason to say otherwise.
Oil already discovered and sooner or later we will be bought out by a major, that is certain. This amount of OIP is of significant importance on a world scale and as far as GKP investors are concerned it matters diddly squat WHO buys us? The C/C judgement should make no difference to the sp if we lose. When it is all over the sp will regain all losses as a result of the case bein g finally put to bed. There is every possibility that we we are sitting on double the reserves in Ber Bahr, than previously thought with a significant twist in the tail.....Shaikan-1 AND all the other licence blocks could be 'connected' and feeding each other from the same source, deep down below the triassic...........?
4. Actual annual growth rate in Iraq GDP (Trading Economics )
The oil fields in the country are largely concentrated in two separate regions, down around Basra in the south of the country, and in the region around Kirkuk and Mosul in the North.
Figure 5. Oil and gas fields in Iraq (IEA ).
This division is somewhat unfortunate from a politically stable point of view since the region in the south is predominantly Shiite, while the reserves in the north lie in the Kurdish region of the country. There is significantly less within the Sunni communities which are largely found in the central region of the country.
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In recent times Euan Mearns has written of the potential for oil production in the Kurdish region in the north. In total this is estimated to hold around 4 billion barrels of oil, or around 17% of the national reserve. However, as exploration of the potential fields in Kurdistan continues, this estimate has been increased by the local government to a possible 45 billion barrels. Euan, for example, wrote about the development of the Shaikan oil field and the potential size of between 8 and 13.4 billion barrels that it showed in January 2012. Current plans are for production to reach 40,000 bpd “soon”, with production ramping up to 400,000 bpd. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) see it playing a considerable role in achieving their target of 400 kbd this year, 1 mbd by 2015, and 2 mbd by 2019. The field is being developed by Gulf Keystone Petroleum.
In the south current production is centered around the Rumaila oil fields. BP has committed $2.85 billion toward improvements in Rumaila this year, with the intent of raising production from the current 1.4 mbd, through 1.45 mbd at the end of this year, up to 6 mbd by 2017. 300 new wells will be drilled in the field over the next five years, to meet the goal, with 150 of these being drilled in the second half of this year. BP operates the field in partnership with CNPC.
Figure 6. Detail showing the location of the Rumaila fields in south Iraq. (Energy-pedia)
The overall scale of Chinese involvement is of concern to some, since as oil supplies tighten in the years to come, it is expected that up to 80% of future Iraqi production will head towards Asia, and particularly to China.
With the growing development of the Majnoon field, with an estimated reserve of 38 billion barrels, it might thus appear that the country is well on its way to meeting the projections that the contracts might suggest. However there are many constraints on future production, including infrastructure and water availability, and I will discuss these and why they limit the IEA to an optimistic assessment that the country will produce 6 mbd by 2020, and only reach 8.3 mbd by 2035 in the next post.
Is Iraq Capable of Becoming the Largest Oil Producer in the World
By Dave Summers | Sun, 02 June 2013 00:00 | 2 Benefit From the Latest Energy Trends and Investment Opportunities before the mainstream media and investing public are aware they even exist. The Free Oilprice.com Energy Intelligence Report gives you this and much more. Click here to find out more. There is often quite a debate in the Peak Oil community over the difference between a reserve and a resource. Simplistically a resource is the amount of, for the sake of discussion, oil that is in the ground in a certain country, while the reserve is the amount of oil that can be both technically and economically recovered from that resource. The numbers can differ quite markedly, and the judgment as to whether a certain body is a reserve is finally made when a well is drilled down, and production (or not) begins.
Just having the reserve available is not, however, within the global discussion of Peak Oil, an adequate sufficiency. Because oil well flow declines over time it is important that the rate of oil production from that reservoir, and the timeliness of its arrival within the supply chain be considered. This is particularly true in discussions over the help that the reserve will provide in ensuring that there is an adequate supply available when the global demand needs it. Normally, as noted, the decisions on production are made on geologic and economic grounds, but it would be foolish not to recognize that there are other factors. Consider the case of Iraq. It is common to find the assumption that Iraqi oil production will rise considerably, with some suggesting it will reach the levels currently only achieved by Russia and Saudi Arabia, although there are some who project it might even rise to as much as 13 mbd, given that there are contracts in place, which if all were fulfilled on time, would raise Iraqi production four-fold to 12 mbd by 2017. Our Top Pick for the Next Bakken/Eagle Ford How to Trade the Energy Markets Over the Coming Week Turkey: Game-Changing Oil & Gas Legislation Afoot Oil Market Forecast & Review 31st May 2013 KURDISTAN: Genel Announces Another Find Featured Sponsor:
In their Special Report on Iraq last year the IEA noted that the country is already the world’s third-largest oil exporter, with the potential and intent to increase production much further. And, as the EIA notes, Iraq became the second largest oil producer in OPEC, when it passed Iran at the end of last year.
Figure 1. Iraqi production of oil since 1990. (EIA)
Iraq is currently producing around 3.1 mbd of crude and thus the potential production levels, and their contribution to reserves and to the daily global need for supply, still has a way to go. With so much oil potentially available, and yet with considerable question over the rate at which it
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