I think the last paragraph on GKP's website gives the T/O theory some grounds to consider...
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Gulf have to give new Reserves and Resources figures for the position as 31 December 2014. It's required for the Report and Accounts.
But that's not the same as doing a new CPR. It would be bonkers to do that now, not least because the oil price would kick the Net Present Value down even more, unless the lo9ngt-run $100 oil price assumption were used. And in that case, nobody would believe the NPV anyway! That would be an "Out of the frying pan, into the fire" situation.
It's possible that someone at Perella Weinberg has badly advised the company about what to release. I know, thanks to what one of the Board has said, that the company's advisers give them conflicting advice regarding what to put in RNS etc. .
And Todd told me that there are billions of barrels of *very* heavy oil in the (shallow, as you know) Cretaceous flanks. That oil isn't a priority of course...it will undoubtedly require EOR (steaming etc) but IMO an operator such as Chevron might perhaps lick its lips at the opportunity. Maybe the PSC terms could be altered to make it more commercially attractive? After all, this is business, not Holy Scripture!
15 Months Production Information and is it 2 or 3 New Wells since the CPR.
Here are some potential reasons why no Reserves Update.
No need for Capex Fundraising is not believable as a reason not to spend the Money or Time as Reserves are amajor Valuation Metric. If the do not need it today they will need it going forward unless Self Financing of course?
Option 1 ... They do not want an Afren as the 299 mmblls reported in the CPR will go down?
Option 2 ... Information collected in the 15 months since CPR would not enhance the information used in the CPR
Option 3 ... GKP and KRG already know and have long time known the RF and Fracture Porosity but not ready to release it.
Option 4 ... GKP and KRG have a Deal Done with a Major and the "Real Numbers" would throw a Spanner into that agreed into that agreed price
Option 5 .... They do not want to release Company Making information on Reserves until the Oil Price has recovered sufficiently as "Any News" in a low and falling Oil Price backgound will be lost in negative sentiment?
Option 6 ... No need for Capex Fundraising so do not waste time Money or Time.
Option 7 ... Suggestions please
I think the company should be challenged for a more "believable" answer than Option 6 .....particularly if you believe Option 4.....or even just in case?
Reminder of JG's bullish statement at the CPR Presentation and increased Fracture Porosity from 0.4% CPR to his view at 0.8% which would equate to 800,000,000 extra barrels of 2P? Also he said increased Reserves would follow with more Production Information and New Wells
Worth asking some questions for for $6.14 a barrel increased Reserves Valuation?
The stupidly low figure was only on the limited drills at Shaikan , giving only 25% of the value , we still have a further 75% value to add . That's not counting the lower reservoirs and not counting the other 3 fields . Cuba
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