You know my stance on 25 after all these years, especially since I never take it when it comes. Its doubling my money and hence what I'd see as a good deal. But as I say, it would be a rip off in truth. I know that and we should be shifted for 500p or up.
United Leadership is still stranded off Morocco. Clearly there are still missing cogs. Selling 20k a day and still we are worth 800 million.
Part of me says that we have no real intent to get to 60k a day, as simple as it would be seemingly, even without anymore drilling or PF3.
250p type levels is just my hunch, and always has been. At these sp levels, with seemingly all the cogs in place apart from some GKP and KRG dumbing down of assets, why are we still only woth 800 million rips. We have payments, exports, assets, legal comfirmation that we can export. Yet 80p is the number. Less than when sh1 hit and we weren't selling a drop, with the KRG having no voice at all. Its fishy and stinks a bit. 250p would be a steal for all our oil, but big oil equals big games.
As for those with 400p averages, sorry if its a bit harsh but I'm not bothered for 2 reasons. 1, all the lads I know respect and have love for on here have been about for years just like me. We've all been through the mill, know each other warts and all, but we generally have averages much better than the bandwaggoners who jumped aboard during the 450p the sucker rally. 2, we are all grown men. You chose to invest, so you take the glory or the pain. You can't feel sorry for that if its goes wrong. We all chose to play. Its how it is, and there's two things you can do about that. Nothing, or like it.
If you were one of the sucker rally brigade and are now feeling the pinch, then all you can do is wait and see how it plays out. But when was the last time that a company was taken over for 10 times its pre bid market cap? 3 or 4, sure, fine, but 10? Get a grip. That's not be being negative or with agendas, just plain sensible.
HI mate, what is your mental target now? I hope you are not totally convinced this is going for 250p max?!
I am never totally certain about anything with GKP but basing on what takeover value has been for other assets anywhere around the world based on oip, I believe there has never been anything lower than $4 a barrel. So a base load of $5b at least in a takeover scenario.
Of course, takeover may never come so we then rely on PE ratio based on forward earnings...... So let's say 40kbpd next year? So around $450m in revenue. $50m in interests and call it max of $80m in opex, so net profit of $320m. PE ratio 10? =£1.8 billion or 211p a share.
If you then use forward guidance for 2016 when it ramps up to 66kbpd? that is revenue of $700-800m! I am guessing SP by end 2015 would easily surpass 250p provided we keep producing as planned and getting paid for it.
Now here is the kicker. If you believe we will grow production from the current 20kbpd, then you must believe this will surpass 250p at some point because the cashflow will fund the growth. If you don't believe that it can happen, then WTF is anyone doing here because the SP will probably take a kicking and unlikely to recover.
Regarding 250 , we all have some sort of mental target now , well i have now , i held my shares through the 450 days were i was into massive % profit thinking 800 here we come and beyond,,,,now i have modified my thinking,,, problem comes when the price starts to rise and carry on rising ,will we stick to our mental target or get caught up in the hype and euphoria and sit on the shares again....methinks that is what Chand is trying to say as well.
NEDs dont get involved in day to day running of company , so seems odd to me to blame them for hireing ERC Equipoise to carry out CRP so GKP could get onto main listing....lots of posters in the know of oil industry queried the appointment of the above...????
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.