She has given up not just one but two other senior positions recently. This, together with her comments at Christmas about Gulf and the retweet about reputation, suggest to me that she's going to be busy at Gulf...
Arundallio has correctly interpreted JG's "signal" regarding production.
JG had said a long time back that 20k was the "nameplate" capacity of each of these production facilities, but that they might actually do 25k to 30k bopd.
And then on 26 June 2014 in one of the "restricted" dial-in conference calls, he said that 50k to 60k bopd from PF-1 and PF-2 was the end-2015 target.
Which is of course two lots of 25k to 30k lol.
This is IMO why they have proceeded with SH-11 and are "de-bottlenecking" some of the pipework and installing new larger-diameter production tubing.
Because without PF-3, which is quite some way off, increasing the output of the existing wells would not br a sensible prioritisation of capital, because it couldn't be utilised and would merely worsen the cash position!
I don't disagree with what you say, Nicki. However, a NED's commitment/time is still fairly limited and I stand by what I said.
Off at a tangent, I find her rather short time at A&O interesting. Unlike some of her previous jobs which were clearly intended to be temporary, that one looked to be a permanent appointment. I could hazard a very educated guess as to what happened there but it would be speculation.
Long timers of this share, still sat on my hands waiting for the pay day bought in here @ 12p why did I not sell in all of my shares for £4 got to greedy!!! but did sell @ £2.60 but still holding 50% of my 12p buy.
I'm not sure a NED would envisage their role as anything more than strategic input at BoD level. They usually only put in two or three days a month...unless, of course, she sub-contracts further work to her own company?
I'm sure she didn't have shareholder call centre operative in mind when she took on the role. :)
Devil is in the detail and remember this is JG's style
So what does it tell us
It tells us
Genel Trading Statement next week
45,000bpd will be coming before SH11
After SH11 completed at the end of Q1 will be at 50,000bpd squeezing max capacity out of the two PF's?
SH10 confirmed again as prolific and looking for the same at SH11 that is to say 10,000 to 12,000bpd..wow.
Payment uncertainty remains so not as bullish as before. Look to Genels trading statement to get a further insight.
The Oil Blending and shorter trucking is looking like it will happen but is still not there yet. Good to see it confirmed that if it does go ahead the discount to Brent will be much reduced and priced at Kirkuk Blend. Does anyone know if there is a discount to Kirkuk Blend at API 36 I would have thought not but not sure about the Sulphur.
The Heavy Oil Pipeline is not coming soon.
Why is the above information important well consider this. As things stand at $50 pb GKP will at 40,000bpd, High Trucking Cost and 20% discount to Brent take home just over $7 million a month. That is not very good.
Now consider $50 pb at 45,000bpd , $9 Trucking Cost and 0% discount to Brent then the take home to GKP is $20 million a month. Every $10 increase in OP thereafter is $5 Million take home to GKP per month.
It goes on to tell us again
No Capex increases to PF3 until steady payments and back costs.
No Plans for a CPR Upgrade so they do not want us worrying about an Afren.
There is "No Need for Funding" so a an updated CPR would be a waste of money? I am not entirely sure what the message is here other than we are Self Funding via Cash in Hand, the Sale of AB , Back Costs and Steady Production Payments?
"GKP will provide a trading update at some stage but all information ahead of the figures in April is already in the market and the well result ( SH11) will come during this period." So the Close Period is "not" to do with CPR or Reserves Statements.
"partly as other parties in the process rather hindered activity, the company now say that exiting A-B is a ‘strategic priority" Who are the other parties I would suggest MOL and KRG and is it now them as well as GKP that have made it a "strategic priority" for GKP to exit. Would this buy time for KRG regarding Back Cost payments if GKP got out of this with money in their pocket as well as reduced Capex Liability going forward.
We are being told there are no plans for a Farm In or JV.
It is telling us that the Close Period is the Sale of AB which is ongoing and I would suggest accelerating?
No more Senior Appointments and TK is not coming back and is not involved ....At the moment?
Finally and interesting statement and is it just Malcy's opinion?
"GKP looks a very interesting bet at the moment. For the first time for a long time I can genuinely see significant upside not just from production but from the value
She didn't post that in the middle of the night, it was after lunch yesterday! Some info. which we obtained yesterday further supports what I'd already said about her realising that she has a lot of work ahead of her at Gulf.
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.