Who knows. Oil find then farmout/farmout then oil find/no oil then farmout, either way GBP have 85% WI of their northern Walvis basin acerage, which from HRT seems more prospective than the southern Orange basin.
Worst case scenerio (no oil then farmout) I can't see the share price being less than 10p (based on 3D and a freecarry) Best case scenario (oil then farmout) and we are talking 50p +
Both scenarios are before GBP even gets near a drill!!! I won't even speculate on share price as a) numbers seem silly, and b) in all honesty, I will be long gone
Whilst CHAR, FOGL and GBP are sitting at cash value is, for me, low hanging fruit. Sure, it's boring as they are not drilling soon but that's the way to benefit from a perceived rise with less associated risk.
On AIM it's lower risk to get in early or invest on confirmation; ie never holding through a drill as that's essentially gambling.
So either here in speculation of a result which is underpinned by cash. Or LEK which confirmed a find, then took off. Ironically with LEK it was possible to get in cheaper after the original find....
If TRP strike oil or gas, I don't think GBP will exist for too long. The source rocks extend from TRP acreage through to GBP's, TRP 3D seismic has shown this. I don't think GBP will ever get to a drill.
GBP will be taken out by Repsol maybe, or TRP placing to raise funds and TRP buy GBP? take out at 15p+ is deffo a possibility.
Have to say I am getting very tempted to get back in at these levels for precisely the reasons you've mentioned - CHAR dusters had a huge effect on the SP here and would expect it to be dragged back up again by any big rise on TRP prior to TD, same goes for CHAR. You only have to look at how the FI shares all used to go up and down together on exploration drills before anything was discovered there, even the ones in completely different basins there! These days the AIM market seems to be more about expectation and popularity of a share (or part of the world) at that particular time, than it is about assets!
You know that's not true, there are many Oil companies out there that are way valued much less then their asset value because that's all it is. GBP's board are just sitting on their butt. GBP are many years away from anything happening. Just take a look at the 5 years chart tells you the story.
TRP and GBP are so close, they practically share the same prospects.
We saw how HRT and CHAR dusters still had an effect on GBPs price all the way down from the Orange basin. Conversely if any nearby actively is positive, then one would expect a rocket under the share price when GBP is now valued less than cash.
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