Our company is worth anything between zero and a few billion dollars, but right now the capital committed to block 12 totals about $80m. We spend money, and the exploration success belongs, in economic terms, to another class of capital that is ahead of us in the queue. That problem needs fixing. Some posters here understand what needs to be done. It may happen without us doing anything about it, and it may not. If it doesn't happen reasonably quickly you can forget all those sky high valuations. Do you understand the difference between prospective resources, contingent resources and reserves? It would certainly be helpful if we had Mr Nicandros attend a meeting in London so we can question him.
Blimey not been here for a while but looks like its the same old talk . Shareholder rebellion, masses of potential and well pretty much the same as this time last year. Hang on lets check sp. My god its still under a penny. Ill pop back in in 12 months...and catch the same crack
If we now have 11tcf of gas prospective reserves, this equates to 311.5 billion metric metres. Our current production is said to be roughly 85,500 metric metres per day(3mcf) . Based on the estimation of overall gas it would take circa 10,000 years to deplete it fully!!! For the entire gas field which ostensibly contains 311,490,000,000 cubic meters,, the overall worth is something in the region of £36.5billion (assuming $200 per 1,000 cubic metres). Applying a 95% discount to that figure to get an extrapolate d SP gives us 71p per share. To get a reasonable depletion timeframe for the gas - 50 years - we'd need an annual production of approx. 6.2 billion metric metres. Looking at NPV, assuming a CAPEX of £200m - needed to upgrade the infrastructure - and equal year on year production of £856m odd, along with a 2.5% inflation factor and a discount rate set at 10%, the NPV of the gas is just under £10billion, giving an SP of £3.84. I know we are still a long way from those levels of commercialisation but there is surely some serious potential .
In terms of the oil, if there truly are 18 billion barrels in the complex, then assuming a net per barrel dollar value of $25 the total worth is £264billion. If production could be elevated to 20,000 barrels per day, the field would take just under 2,500 years to deplete. At those production levels, the margin would be worth £100m per annum and with a P/E ration of 10 this should roughly equate to an Mcap of £1billion in its own right.
So basically if the figures for oli and gas are accurate the value is potentially montrous (£300 billion +). However, revenue is king and this is AIM so nothing tends to run smoothly. Geopolitical factors could cause things to implode and there is always the debt issue. In addition, it might not be commercially viable to extract the O&G fully so the headline figures might be a bit misleading. Furthermore, given our lack of capacity to exploit the resource, due to the company's size, in all likelihood we won't ever take the field into full production. But given that the company has invested so much money in the field, and the resources are potentially so lucrative, surely in any company sale the BOD would be looking for billions rather than hundreds of millions. Would be gutted if they sold on the cheap to a major or allowed the company to be privatised before the big gains.
Yes we could be more vocal....trouble I reckon we could only rally 15% of share holders. Not a lot really as most won't leave the company so you have no threat. Also the drop in sp has been arrested for 2 days, after falling for about 3 weeks. Most will brew content with that.
On the other hand I think sn ha had a lot of slack and I remember being told cpr by x mas now I'm reading quarter 1 of 2015. We sometimes appear to be followers waiting for the second coming...it'll be tomorrow.
You won't get any more information by being vocal. Seems obvious to me that SN is in talks to sell sufficient asset / resource to clear the debt. Hence the new adviser. Hence the delay in reporting Well34 results (which would break aim reporting rules, unless the effect of announcing result would impact sensitive negotiations). IMVHO
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