Thank you for your valued posts yesterday,now that the licences have been awarded and the takeover of Des is completed and at present no funding required do you not think that they will commence drilling later this year once they have the results of 3D survey?,its irrelevant to me really as i do think that funding will readily become available here to progress with further drills med /long term rewards will be huge imho,glad to see you hold some here aswell.
thankyou! wise words and you're right it's 'exciting times for FOGL and this merger has really given us a future'. Whilst you haven't mentioned the elephant in the room: Argentina as a risk factor - I fully believe that having US involvement in all of these operations acts as underlying insurance. Calm and patience needed now.
Continued...) The Diomedia drill is a HUGE gamble (High stakes, Big opportunity, Big risk)…The past drills have improved FOGL and BORs understanding of where the oil window is, and Diomedia sits immediately above it. However there are a number oif risks. - First sight 3D suggests that Diomedia is a number of fan prospects that would need considerable appraisal (high cost) and large quantities of P50 and P90 couldn’t be proven with a single drill - Diomedia sits above the oil mature source rock so requires migration - Nothing is known of the reservoir quality in this region
It is unclear to me what response there would be in the share price to a major discovery, and whether holding through a 20% COS drill would be wise. Possibly this would depend on the results of the NFB drills and FOGLs relative strength at the time. For the brave only….
The final drill is the SFB drill of a Darwin lookalike. Technically it all seems perfectly feasible that an adjacent fault block could also be condensate and that a new fairway could be opened. The market HATED the BOR discovery (wrongly IMO), but whether the response to additional condensate finds (with Noble at the helm) would be more positive is conjecture.
The other planned well doesn’t involve FOGL/DES and is PMO/RKH testing for a gas cap on the western side of Sealion. Although absence of a gas cap adds significant resource to both, I would imagine the market response to be relatively muted as it was during the Sealion appraisals…Chatham is too small a bonus to be earth shattering. I wouldn’t imagine too big an opportunity.
I have come to this conclusion from researching, all this information is available online and I suggest a few of you spend more time researching than chatting and you will make informed decisions rather than going with the crowd.
One final point I may add is TB has always made it very clear that he would be happy to sell if the offer was right. I personally think once the oil is flowing in the north this will fund FOGL's drill bit in the South, and then if we do get a couple of oil targets hit a takeover is likely. I have been in FOGL for over 8 years, I always de-risk before and have an average of 28.5p and over 42Kshares risk free from de-risking. I will be in this company for another 8 years one way or another, its exciting times for FOGL and this merger has really given us a future.
I only occasionally come on this board so please forgive my "lack of presence". @ Hydraides, I dont mean to be offensive in this post at all but are you seriously trying to compare little FOGL to Noble? These are incomparable! If you really need me to explain why then I suggest you go to the Casino with your cash. I fear many of you guys/girls dont read through the old RNS and DYOR on a Company.
Here is how things are going to pan out IMO and please someone write this down because I hate repeating myself.
2014 will be a year of waiting: JAN/Feb) 3D Results 1) Rig Announcement (Confirmed) 2) Identification of slots 3) Other options being taken up 4) Possibly mobbing, but most likely this will be in 2015
For the companies known to be drilling, it would be easy to recommend a BUY, with a view to de-risking before drilling. This may depend on the order of drills as discussed below. FOG-DES are committed to and fully funded for five drills, three in the NFB and one in each of the FPB and SFB.
These can be summarised: a) The Zebedee drill b) The Jayne drill c) The Isobel drill d) The Diomedia drill e) The SFB drill
Starting with the North.
The Zebedee drill is a corker. It is an APPRAISAL of the Sealion complex. RKH/PMO have always called Zebedee a separate entity to the Casper/Shona discoveries, DES believed it to be a single entity. Either way there should be a high confidence that Zebedee will be successful, all F2 prospects west of the regional low have worked to date. Zebedee also target 8 (EIGHT) other prospects ranging between F1-F3. This is the real potential value add of the drill, if F1 or F3 prospects can be proven by this drill it opens up new fairways throughout the NFB.
I DO expect Zebedee success to be priced in at this level (anything below 30)… people know already whats down there and FOGL's share of it....but any or all of the additional eight prospects being successful “should” see a spate of interest in the FI stocks. My feeling is that FOGL and RKH could be held through this drill with minimal risk.
The Jayne drill is east of the water saddle, and is back in the region where the Rachel wells failed for DES. This is a tough one for me. There were lots of clues that suggest Jayne (F3 prospects) may work, but also risks of seal at the basin boundary which did for Rachel. It’s a risky one, too much there that I am not sure of to recommend holding a too risked a position. That’s not to say it couldn’t work..and I hope that it does.
I LIKE Isobel, Elaine and Irene. This is the big hope for the NFB. DES did a lot of work looking at these prospects and their pinch-out at the basin boundary. These are the nearest mirror to Sealion remaining in the NFB (although older), and would be a shot in the arm for the whole campaign. Of all the unproven plays to be drilled, if I were to gamble on any success this would be it.
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