900 bopd would be nice. As far as I know the only field in the whole of the East Midlands area which peaked materially above this production level was Welton, which is not geologically linked with Wressle. Crosby Warren, which is, had a peak production of 400 bopd.
So I admire optimism but I would not use 900bopd as a valuation base (even ignoring the need to discount prior to test results). If we are very very lucky Wressle may be another Welton - but that seems impossible based on the initial reserve estimates.
People rarely sell at the same time and even less likely that they will pull all their shares out at once. The key is this SP rise will be backed by newsflow and huge changes in the company fundamentals and value. Once this happens the larger institutional investors will be buying in here and replacing the smaller PI holders. I have seen this happen many times as the PI has taken all the risks by holding in the early days when the assets are being proven. Once the risks have been minimised the IIs pile in with their large cash pots and buy up the stock. The key for the big boys is they don't need to take risks as they have sufficient capital to make huge amounts of profit through sheer volume. The PIs on the other hand, only have relatively small resources and have to invest early to catch the larger percentage rise. Pump and dumps happen when a company is hyped by traders through one piece of news but usually that news will not massively increase the value of the company. The assets held by Europa are staggering but just need the final piece of the jigsaw for that value to be realised. The Irish assets have much less value without a 3D seismic. 3D can now be used in many cases to classify a resource figure to a reserves. So once 1 well is drilled and oil is proven off Ireland then the 3D is so effective that the industry will almost guarantee the resource figures as gospel. So our 3D results will be taken very seriously by the industry. Yes, the asset still needs a well to prove oil, the key being which multinational would not want a piece of a potential multibillion barrel oilfield off the coast of Ireland. This simple fact is worth a fortune to us. This is presuming the 3D results are as expected but judging by Hughs reaction they are. Our French asset will also become much more valuable once we farmout. That asset already has proven resources so the risk is much lower. 2 huge assets that are about to become immensely valuable in comparison to our meagre MC.
Supply and demand I guess mate. Everybody will have different entry and exit points so it won't be case it reaching a specific point then every wanting to sell. When we get to 20p say, it will be because of a specific reason, and there could be a number of catalysts.
What will get it to 20p is high impact news and the 'herd'. You will have literally hundreds if not thousands of investors who want to turn their 3k into 30k within 4 weeks kind of thing. They get caught up in the hype, and there will be a lot on BB's like this, and as there is such high demand, short supply, you get whip lash rises. You will then get a sell off, us long termers will top slice or whatever and it will retrace. However at this point you have whole new group of investors who will prop it back up but this must be sustained by continued news flow. For me EOG ticks every box to achieve a long and sustained rise over the next few years. With so few shares in issue, demand is easy to achieve. We have a number of prospects at different points on the development curve to supply the news. Don't get me wrong it is still AIM and you will still see huge swings, the important thing is the trend will IMO head north over the long term.
I will top slice from between 25-35p but not much. This is not a ramp but I am looking for at least 50-70p before I sell any serious amount but i will be holding onto a good few shares for the £1+. This may take a few years but I can wait.
One more thing, human instinct will play a part. The same principal of a bookies, punters get hooked and always come back for more. By this I mean there will be a lot of people still stuck on the spikes of 3 years ago. Averages of between 20-40p who have had to just keep hold of these shares. They will tell themselves that as soon as they are all square they will sell up. Reality is, once sentiment and excitement returns, and we get to their break even point, human nature will have them thinking about what if. There will be people talking of 60p, 80p etc etc and instead of selling out, they will find themselves staying put for the ride. All IMO
Hi Anthony, TIPTOP hasn't answered my question yet. I'm not trying to be negative just realistic and it's stopping me topping up.
My concern is, if people like yourself just sold everything if & when we hit 20p what would happen. If I averaged at about 20p for over six years I'd probably sell and think thank god I got out of that one. If a lot of people were to bail out on this good news that's coming, how do you think it will affect the company?
It's just my opinion a lot will top slice for a free ride and there are a lot of investors that will be happy just to get their money back. I look forward to what TIPTOP says as he is obviously excited by Europa and is putting his money where his mouth is.
3 pay zones found. 1) Penistone flags, 2) Wingfield flags and 3) Ashover grit. Now what we need is a smart well to tap all three zones. Each zone produces 300barrels a day. So 900bopd total. Thats 300bopd to Europa.that would take us to nearly 500bopd and we have Kiln to get going as well. Great share to have in your PF. loving it!
Hi mate, negativity is everyone's own entitlement, and this company has only itself to blame in this being the general sentiment IMO
However it's important when times are tough, you stick to facts and research. Hugh clearly stated irish prospect inventory and CPR was due Q4........ These will be the biggest pieces of news this company has had, by far! This will hopefully be followed by an even bigger news when Kosmos elect to drill a well. So when Hugh says the next 6 months are very exciting, that don't mean the first 3 are a right off. No one can blame you for being negative, I think a lot of people will be that way until EOG finally get that high impact RNS out.
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