Tester - I agree that B2G seem to be diversifying out of Nicaragua. However, now that the IFC are involved (assuming that Due Diligence and Due Process are completed), the geopolitical risk is greatly reduced. I'm sure that the Nicaraguan Government are grateful for an involvement of a subsidiary of the World Bank as well.
There are hundreds,maybe thousands,of artisanal miners, so I think that mining is "in the blood" locally, reducing the risk of environmental pressure groups creating opposition.
Even if B2G want to diversify out, there will be many mid and large players who will want to get into Central America, and using Condor is an ideal way in.
There is an ongoing dispute between Condor and B2G about a Net Smelter Agreement which B2G seemed to have "forgotten" about when agreeing the concession swap which effectively gave Condor the La India District. (see note in MC's Half Year Report).
Clive Johnson has already let loose a diatribe against "Financiers" who were overvaluing their exploration assets and how any deal he struck would have to be "accretive" for B2Gold - ie daylight robbery (Denver Gold Forum 2012, from memory). I don't know whether he was aiming this at MC/Condor, maybe not.
Clive is very much a "dirt-under-the-fingernails" miner, somewhat arrogant it seems, and certainly has no time for non-miners in charge of mining assets. It just seems to me that it will have to be a very cold day in Hell before CJ would buy Condor, no matter how sensible the concept might be. Too big an ego, I think. However, just my view.
However, we know that there are other interested parties, and for sure MC will be updating them over the course of the Denver Gold Forum which is underway at present.
for now I'm just enjoying the $200 + per oz valuation on purchase for gold in the ground.
You might well be right on the country risk point. Nicaragua has been stable for some 23 years, but pro-nationalist and anti-pollution environmental lobbies could easily arise, as they seem not uncommon in the region.
B2G are well aware of CNR I am sure. But I do wonder if perhaps La India is too big a district for B2 to buy from CNR. Its not that they dont have the means to do it, but at 100kozpa, wouldn't it mean putting too many eggs in one basket, when you consider the existing output from Bonanza and El Limon (200kozpa combined I think) ?
B2Golds growth strategy seems to be to diversify geographically from Nicaragua, in order to limit the risk on what would happen if Nicaragua was to somehow become less receptive to gold mining (e.g El Salv)
Ironically, I think if CNR had found less resources at La India, B2Gold may have been quicker to buy it!
Then again - who really knows for sure? B2Gold may think its just too good an opportunity to miss, with prices of junior explorers so low atm..
I can see pro's and cons to the argument of whether B2 will buy CNR or not. The 3% NSR skirmish could just be a smokescreen to try to put off rival bidders, or it could be a genuine grievance.
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