After a dismal 2013 that saw gold lose 28% in value and suffer the worst price performance in 32 years, few predict a big upswing this year. The median forecast for the fourth quarter 2014 of the nine gold analysts tracked by Bloomberg is for an average $1,165 an ounce gold price. And historically the most accurate among them see gold sub-$1,050. Gold averaged $1,411 in 2013. But gold's fight back this year â€“ the spot price has gained 9.6% so far this year seems to have surprised a number of forecasters. Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at Swiss investment and London bullion bank UBS, tells Platts she is moving from "outright bearish" to "neutral/slightly positive". Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the metal, but Tully nevertheless sees a "journey down to $1,280 as a buying opportunity." "[Further out] we see gold moving towards $1,350 in three months, up from $1,100 previously, as the underlying improvement in sentiment takes further hold among investors, and as gold is increasingly used as a tail-risk hedge. Although we feel gold isn't deserving of a price tag north of $1,400, a price sub $1,200 seems similarly undeserved." Tully also raised the bank's 2014 average gold price to $1,300 from $1,200 previously with the biggest driver for the more positive outlook "the large investor sentiment shift that is currently taking place." However, she cautions "this shift is occurring amongst investors with a short-term horizon, and not among the more strategic, long-term players". Some evidence of this view can be seen in the recent sharp increase in bullish futures bets placed by hedge funds, with net long positions jumping 17%. The Economist Intelligence Unit is also having a rethink of its bearish predictions for 2014, commodities analyst Edward Bell tells FastMarkets: â€œWe will have to take another look at our price forecast â€“ we were anticipating that it was going to fall to average $1,245 per ounce this year, but we will probably have to revise that up based on what we think the first quarter number is going to be," Bell said. The EIU's fresh prediction? An average of $1,260 for the whole of 2014. That's hardly earth-shattering good news for gold bulls, but at least in the words of Tully gold is no longer "the favourite asset to short or ignore
I am sure your right. There was the delayed trade yesterday that went through as a buy but I am sure was a sell. Would not be surprised to see another delayed trade this evening that will probably show as a buy unless the market moves up during the afternoon.
The Libertad exploration budget for 2013 is approximately $4.2 million (reduced from $4.7 million) for a total of approximately 11,000 metres of planned drilling. The program includes completing the Jabali and Mojon high grade underground and continued exploration on a number of regional targets, including the San Juan trend, Chamarro-Socorro trend, Cerro Quiroz and others
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