Yes - the January presentation is very interesting. I sense Chariot is now firmly kickstarting back to life... farmin's, neighbour oil strikes, new identified prospects, new seismics, chariot drills ...plenty of triggers for 2014... will there be a Nimrod 2 ... GLA...
Guys, a repost from the GBP board. CHAR has a worthy mention. Its with respect to Namibian sentiment between oil explorers
____________________________________________ This is not a deramp at TRP (we would like a strike), but I feel its prudent to highlight the risks/rewards between TRP/GBP and other Namibian drillers:
Facts: A) TRPs eCOS (economic success) is 30%. Its gCOS (geologic success) is 40% as commonly quoted. Lets face it...if its not an economic success it doesn't mean dillily-squat for TRP, even if that means the Welts drill found trap, seal, and reservoir. If there is insufficient accumulation of oil/gas its share price is going to sub 1p. It is very unlikely to drill again, without horrendous dilution. CHAR has only survived due to having a half decent capital in the bank.
B) Looking historically at all the Namibian wells (CHAR Tapir, CHAR Nimrod, and all of HRT), all found world class source rock, but no economic successes; with resultant dive in their own share prices. 100% of drills in the last 4 years have found world class source rock. Source rock massively derisks a basin, as it is notorious difficult to find (let alone world class source rock)
C) So although the DRILLER was fortunate to find source rock, the capital losses (from the drill) were to main attributer the the dive in share price. However, for any NEIGHBOURS (TRP/GBP/PCL/ECO..others), this derisking has underpinned their share price
D) GBP is in the fortunate position of have circa $20m cushion to fall back on (about 5p), and sitting right next to the best drill of 2014
Scenarios: 1) TRP finds commercial oil (30% chance). Best scenario. Both TRP and GBP go up. GBP can demand high premium for their acreage.
2) TRP doesn't find commercial oil (70% chance), but reaffirms the components of a hydrocarbon basin (historically 100%). TRP share price goes down. When the dust settles GBP will go up based on information learnt, further derisking, cash cushion, and potential farmout
3) TRP doesn't find commercial oil (70% chance), and no source rock (10%? chance). Worst case scenario. TRP goes down, and GBP goes to cash value (which is where we are now!!)
Thoughts: X) Global economic issues aside, the probability of GBP sitting above 5p in 6months seem far more likely than sitting sub 5p (and in that case only slightly below)
Y) If TRP don't find oil, there is still upside to GBP
Hi - no - I use http://visualping.io/ to alert me to any changes on several websites. I like the website - it has most of the good stuff in one place... and I think it deserves a mention because of the effort that has gone into it.... its a very good resource. I must have read it a gazillion times.... but I do have some useful contacts.
In terms of when - my guess is Centrals and Mauritania (again) will indeed be the next farmouts for many reasons. And there is plenty of farmout potential still across all the remaining blocks in Nam, Maur, Moro and eventually Brazil. This share is so undervalued its unbelievable... but hey - I'll just keep buying - just like those Tower guys at 1.2p... !
A few years back I accumulated a gazillion shares in 888 at 25-34p and was told I was mad by the de-rampers .... and here we are ...they disappeared ;-) Same for Chariot...
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