Given how secretuve chariot are I find it odd that they would say w.r.t Morocco 'Drilling assuming a Woodside full carry'. Also in the fact sheet it says drilling in 2015 for Morocco, we know the relationships at BOD level between chariot and Woodside so it sounds like they are very confident to make such an open declariarion. If they had said 'subject to tier 2 partnering' then fair enough but they have openly named the partner ..
I am just about hanging in to be honest. I agree other companies have better market caps and less going for themselves but they might have investor confidence, which is what drives markets. The BOD's cannot continue to delay things and create uncertainty.
I am out for now...wrote a long note on my thoughts and decided to hold off as it was non productive.
Hope the board deliver something, or the ii's hold them to task .
Will come back in, I am sure, and keep an eye on fortunes but for now my capital needs to work elsewhere.
News round the corner... who knows.. I said months ago that we were surrounded in Namibia - there's been too much other investment in other blocks, and little to speak of in Char's. Confidence is an important thing beyond all other factors.. Char doesn't have enough of it for now from partners PI or general industry sentiment as far as I can see. Perhaps that will change.
- Wheeps, Pegasus, MR ,mcf,poll, BF - best of Luck
We are where we are. I agree 100% with you about investor fatigue. There are companies out there with better market capitalisations, less cash, debt, fewer prospects and boards that are not as strong as chariots. The weak link is PR and the fact that Larry seems shy in communicating with us except when he puts us in a sh** position like the recent placing The likes of Forlorn on iii and ADVFN (look up his profile picture on advfn) love to chip away at Peoples anxieties and as a speculator why would you invest here with all the continuous *****ing? When we were at 29p there was at long last some recognition I the value being created in our acreage then we got screwed over by sentiment again. Chariot will farm out the Centrals - they are in talks right now. Morocco will get a tier 2 via chariots former chairman at wood side. Mauritania will hold the new venture with Cairn ... Watch this space ..
The new venture doesn’t excite me at the moment to be honest. We need to have a Tier-2 farm out and have a clear time line to drill. After that the idea of increasing acreage in a country that we are currently operating in would seem more appealing as it will most likely increase the value and interest in the current acreage. I hope the deal for the new venture is announced after a Tier-2 farm out. If it is reported now it will reduce the share price further as the market is tracking the company’s cash value, the spend in the new venture will get factored in straight away.
We have waited a year for the central’s farm out and nothing has come to fruition, according to the company the removal of the drilling commitment puts Chariot in a stronger negotiating position and gives it further commercial optionality. This may be correct but the fact is we have also lost 25% equity, which has cost shareholders millions. The BOD’s have definitely made errors in judgement when trying to farm out the centrals, we were told of the high industry interest in the block and the region as a whole yet nothing came of it.
The Mauritania data has been expected for months and has now been delayed once again to 2015. We have had our shareholding diluted and the share price is at all-time lows, Mr. Market is usually correct and he doesn't think very highly of the company's future at the moment given its track record. Our 2 biggest partners BP and PetroBras have also relinquished block 2714a.
Investor fatigue is to be expected especially when there are no signs of improvement just hype and conjecture. Personally, the performance of the stock has caused me a lot of problems but I will continue to hold as selling at a loss after such a long time would be unwise as the BOD's have a lot to prove and the prospects on the face of it look very good. We have diversified in to other regions and the Tier-1 farm outs seem reasonably good value with options for Tier-2 farm outs.
It's disappointing when I see shareholders of other companies having a more proactive approach and all we see on this bulletin board is a ''wait and see'' attitude. Just take RRL as an example, the shareholders feel that communication from the company is unacceptable and are demanding this be corrected.
What we have seen over the last 2 years with CHAR has been completely unacceptable and I have raised this with the company several times but I feel like I am the only one with these concerns. The channels that are currently open to CHAR shareholders to contact the company are not sufficient in my opinion but these will only change if a much larger investor base requests the change. Attending AGM’s in such low numbers is frivolous IMO. A much better way would be to create an action group and speak with one voice – However I think this would be a non-starter as we just do not have the numbers.
The company has made promises and is talking a good game but if it doesn’t succeed in the Tier-2 farm outs and commit to drilling then the market will continue to hold it down. There is not much interest in the shares and the volumes are too low to move the share price currently.
Based on your calculations - 30% equity could be worth around $38m, based on these numbers 25% equity would be around $31.75m, which is really close to the figure I quoted of $32.5m that we have lost due to the equity changes.
And debt free we are sitting below cash - how crazy is that. I am Glad we have more II's on board to add some stability. As for the Centrals farm out - another option could be Chariot believe what they have is worth more in farm out terms and that is why they are negotiating for longer - after all - it's drill ready and now no more acreage available unless via farm-in. I think Namcor have now sent a strong message - from now on - use it or lose it .. In other words drill. Mulunga saying three drills next year is a good sign - he was proven right on all other occasions (more oilers OMV,Murphy, SHELL) also (BP/Petribras not renewing) he also reckons BP will stay in Namibia - they have no choice but to farm in ..
Based on earlier farmout activity I expect potential farminees to pay (at least) about:
+~US$6,000/ km² acreage + ~US$7,400/ km² 3D seismic
Examples of what farminees have paid to farm into Blocks offshore Namibia the last couple of years:
BP Namibia Block 25% of 2714A (5,480km²) ~US$30MM US$1.2MM per 1% of one Block, US$21,897 per 1km²
Galp Energia Namibia Blocks 14% of 2112B, 2212A, 2713A, 2713B, 2813A, 2814B, 2914A (37,744km²) ~US$60MM US$0.61MM per 1% of one Block, US$11,355 per 1km²
SHELL Namibia Blocks 90% of 2913A, 2914B (~10,000km²) ~US$54MM US$0.3MM per 1% of one Block, US$ 6,000 per 1km²
PGS Namibia Blocks 10% of 2312A, 2312B, 2412A, 2412B (16,800km²) ~US$10MM US$0.33MM per 1% of one Block, US$5,952 per 1km²
PetroBras Namibia Block 50% of 2714A (5,480km²) ~US$16MM US$0.32MM per 1% of one Block, US$5,840 per 1km²
Tullow Oil Namibia Blocks 65% of 1910A, 1911A, 2011A (17,295km²) ~US$52MM US$0.27MM per 1% of one Block, US$4,626 per 1km²
One reason the values paid differ from eachother is because some companies have already acquired & interpreted expensive 3D data before farming out, while others have not. For example HRT has acquired and interpreted ~10,000km² of 3D seismic with estimated costs of > US$70MM. Another reason is of course the amount of prospective resources and their chance of success. As an example BP paid a huge premium, four times as much as others to farm into Block 2714A, the reason was the Nimrod prospect (prospective resources ~ 5 bn boe), unfortunately turned out as an non commercial well, but proved source rocks capable to fill shallower reservoirs, afterwards Chariot was able to secure the license to the south from 2714A and is now targeting such shallower reservoirs ...
Namibia Central Blocks: 2312A&B & 2412A&B: 65% (Operator), 16,800km², 3,500km² 3D
Potential Farmout Value (100%): US$6,000*16,800km² = US$101MM & (3,500km²) 3D ~US$26MM = US$127MM
So I expect Chariot to farmout ~30% of their Central Blocks For ~US$38MM or a free carried well (35%) and more 3D Seismic.
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