Blvn is just the biggest disappointment, what more can you say... What I find amazing is how much better we are off than 12 months ago and yet we are moving along in this trough, its been months since we had a good positive day..
I would love 75p now let alone 250p! I recall a conversation with Kerry Crawford n 2011 (these were the days when PR were happy to talk to their shareholders as opposed to referring them to look at their website for info) and she twittered on about more analysis was required on Sapele. I recalled thinking that this "analysis" was taking a really long time. In short, I am guessing that Sapele was too much of an undertaking and perhaps not as commercially viable than first thought. Having spoken to KH at some length this year, I was much encouraged by the Bomono prospects (onshore) and Kenya 11B. BLVN are really keen to get stuck into Kenya. EW is very excited about the acreage we have there - remember he is the one that found the huge find for CNE in their Rajasthan fields. Hart will appreciate the value of a decent find in 2015 - he was the FD that orchestrated the £3 billion dollar flotation of Cairn India following that find. He is now pointing the co's nose in the direction where he thinks he can materially increase SH value and that is why we can look forward to the 4 drills in this respect!
Trader - thanks for the reply. Made me chuckle when you mentioned it dropped from 300 to 250p - oh how we'd like some of that now! I was in BLVN when s-3 was drilled and they clearly implicated that they would be coming back to sapele with the appropriate equipment. My point simply is I don't understand why BLVN are so keen to kick of new plays (and thereby more risk) when they have one right here - sapele that is a light oil discovery... If Bonomo is a hit I can't see it adding more than 50% to the current sp and for long suffering holders thats no where near enough!
KH expects the Bomono and Etinde wells exploration/appraisal to significantly boost the SP. Initially, Sapele looked very promising and there was talk of the elephant in the Cretaceous layer. We now know that Sapele probably holds significant reserves of liquids but the high-pressure gas issues were a problem (once this was known, the SP fell from the high 300s to 250). It is ironic that Goldmans and Fox Davies were forecasting target prices of £10 and even £18 if the Cretaceous revealed the elephant. Perhaps if Bow had used Plexus high pressure pipes perhaps the drilling would not have been compromised. In short, Sapele has huge potential but perhaps requires a major with deep pockets to progress this further given the cost of dealing with the high pressure gas issues. KH and EW are really keen to get cracking with Kenya 11B - this is on the edge of a prolific fairway and they will be keeping an eye on the drill results of other operators like Tullow at the end of this year. Any succes by them will lead to an increase in the SP of Bow. Plenty to look forward to here.
Ted. You just have to be patient. Cameroon bureaucracy is slow but the decree will soon be signed. PB has recently been busy with signing various decrees so I am hopeful we will hear sooner than later. Once formally gazetted, I expect the Lukoil funds will arrive possibly mid-December but we have the Macquarie bridging should it be required in any event. This is a very good entry point given the oncoming price-changing catalysts with four significant wells to be drilled. At long last, Bow are turning the corner and I expect a material re-rate of the SP.
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