I once had lunch with Warren Buffett. I asked him what the secret to his success was.
Having cautiously checked over both shoulders, he leaned in and whispered the following:
"people think I sit down and spend hours studying company accounts; spend my days evaluating micro and macro economic policy; spend years evaluating a companies p/e ration, it's EPS or book value before I make an investment....but I don't bother with any of that. The truth is that I make all my investment decisions on how I perceive the body language of a government minister in a five minute interview on Bloomberg".
I used to think reading these bulletin boards was worthwhile. Not anymore.
I got in at .21c and also at 29c but a lot larger amount invested , which one should I take out? Are we anywhere near realistic for mid 30's come April 1 or even end of 2014? I so wanted these to be Long Term but is this an option even?? Am I chasing the Ghost of shares past? Do I need to change the Ghost is Shares present in order to be around for the Ghost of future Shares?
Tough little share this, since reorganization. Re. Your last point re a relationship between number of shares in issue and historical share price. Well, just look at some of the crazy remarks (bless 'em!) on today's blog and you'll note that 'the market' doesn't really have a clue from one moment to the next. Ranger4 is up to speed with his various 'days moving average' than most of us but history can be blown out the widow, up or down, on a new, unexpected event. Right now, core tier 1 bank capital is a preferred indicator by the regulators and you could factor for that. You could dig up the boi financials from before the meltdown, say 2007, and note the value of total common share fully paid capital, add the value of the common share premium account and add retained earnings and factor similarly when the accounts are finalized for the last financial year. That'll give you a rough comparison. Have to admit I'm more driven by expectations than factors but yours is the more academic approach am sure. Good luck!
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