Well different strokes for different folks really. The people you refer to. Many of them type actually do that as a living, and usually get burned more times than they like to admit.
It's always a gamble I suppose, as it's not a risk free investment. But an investment it is, at least to me. I don't do this type of thing as a living. Anyway I do ok, but I had a pile of cash and thought long and hard about this and it's future and went with it.
Many on here made a huge deal on Ross selling his stake. Some people are fickle. Ross was just another investor, he bought 6% of BOI, but was linked to consortiums that purchased 35% of BOI altogether. They still hold their stake. I'm very happy with the price I paid, and I see it more of a gamble leaving my money in a deposit account, while inflation eats it away.
by the way most traders are not gamblers or at least ones doing it for more than 5 mins. Anybody can be wrong but most traders (that are any good) develop well thought out trading strategies be they fundamental or technical or a bit of both. Its too easy to say oh its the gamblers playing when it doesn't go your way. You need to develop a well thought out strategy, see if market agrees and if it doesnt learn to decipher when it agrees and doesnt so you can re-evaluate. Personally, I think investing & waiting years without listening to market but maintaining you are right is closer to gambling.
Same as. I also don't think the gamblers are or will be game changers, but they do have the biggest influence on this pattern of late, coupled of course with the brokers.
The next big changes for BOI is all in the pipeline, but very hard to predict or put a timeframe on. The governments 14% stake will be a big deal once sold, if sold. I'm sure the states involvement in BOI has put many private investors off. The dividend whenever that comes along will also be significant. As I said all these things are coming, and IMO, they will be good for BOI shareholders. Besides this, the banks Health has been improving year on year.
if u look at forecasted net income for FY 2014 among the scribblers, the highest is e680m, lowest e83MM (Nomura!!), av e285MM. This is interesting and suggests to me there might not be a real run up to results like FY 2013 (certainly been case so far) but the market may indeed pop if the 1H confirms the more optimistic are right as the pessimists will be forced to revise upwards which will happen once they digest the results. This sort of variation is interesting and shows that predicting Bkir is not straightforward but it also sets it up nicely for a nice pop if Bkir delivers. Lets see, wouldnt be inclined to sell on results if good as momentum will be one of upgrades & not downgrades that followed FY 2013. so my best guess is wont be a mad run up as there is no real tight concensus which will be anticipated but if results are at goodbody level or higher at 1H it should result in a nice pop. that's my view anyway, chips placed.
This has been a pattern for a long time ....for a while every dog and divil was talking of BOI as their saviour . A lot went in at the high 20s and early 30s ....they are just fretting now. It's not the gamblers that may be a game changer but a serious institution taking a position in BOI.
Without wanting to sound cheeky, that's not much of a prediction. Everybody and his dog expected a rise leading to the results, as it has become a very familiar pattern.
The problem is, most people are also predicting a drop after the results, ya know yourself "buy the rumour, sell the news" type of thing. I personally would call those people gamblers as it's only a matter of time before the pattern changes and they get burned.
For example, there's gonna be lots of gamblers buying know, and selling after the results. They will then hope to get back in at a lower price, but this is all to predictable for me. Pattern will catch all the gamblers out eventually.
What do you think? Would you bother with the gamble?
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