Hi, newbe here (but not new to following boi). I've been a shareholder for many years now, had many sleepless nights. Had a good few shares which I sold when they hit .22 only to watch them go up to .38. When they went back to .25 I went ALL-IN. Enjoying the ride so far. Obviously nothing going to happen until after the bank stress tests, although if any irish bank had trouble probably the government would change the tax writedowns into assets. Irish banks are the most capitalized banks in Europe. After the stress tests, interesting and seemingly random things start to happen, because of BOI's capitalization, it will be included again in more indexes which brings in more institutional investors (increasing demand). These guys buy and hold. then as the profit margins rise and BOI starts to give this back to shareholders they could become a takeover target, not by European but possibly Chinese, or as the Saudis did and bought up big shareholding in Citigroup. I'd prefer BOI starting buying back shares instead of giving dividends, this would work better for current shareholders who wouldn't have to pay tax on dividends and also help get rid of the penny share look.
Ramerci73, certainly in Dublin/London this share is in bullish territory, not so on NYSE but lets see what today brings. I would not be surprised to see a re-test of e0.38 in the run up to stress test results but first I want to see how it does against circa e0.325 because when it hit this number before it fell hard. In recent times when it has crossed 50,100 & 200 it has been pulled back below, regrouped and then went on. Lets see what happens at 0.325 thats next big hurdle before a re-test of the yearly high. From fundamental perspective, e0.38 is market cap of e12.4bn which for a bank that could make e1.5bn (2015) with a following wind of provision releases is cheap. For me what it will do at e0.38 is much harder to figure out but thats a job for another day
You have proved to be very reliably when it comes to determining the breakout points for this share. I know you have been described as a "chartist" (a person who uses analytical data charts to determine the likely direction of a share price), would you mind giving us the skinny on your current predictions for BKIR please?
Just a rough idea will do if you have the time please.
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