The stockpicking part of my portfolio focuses on just 2 types of stocks: firstly opportunistic undervalued, meaning where price has reacted excessively to dramatic short term economic or political shocks which will likely be remedied in medium-long term (like economy-relevant sized banks imploding: BOI, AIB, Unicredit, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Citibank etc.) or which can gain from the after-effects of those shocks (like Kennedy Wilson). The others are the diesels which show progressive, slow multi-year growth because they are reliable players in their field, which deliver the 4-5 % year-on-year market share and profitability growth generating capital gain and dividends (eg: Accenture over the last 10 years). I am ignorant on Telecoms.
"My Unicredit chips are up another 2.25% today on expectations of positive vote." Do you have a thing for beaten down stocks or crippled banks? :-) OT (off topic): speaking of beaten down stocks, I see Portugal Telecom got away from me as they just announced a merger with Oi (Brazilian carrier). I was looking for a pullback to open a position in it (mostly for the dividend). I don't feel like chasing it now.
looking good. Confidence vote ongoing in the senate, Berlusco's facelift is looking grim. Looks like 20+ of his muppet senators are set on voting against the party line he dictated and in favour of confidence in government. Now he will have to regroup with his faithful and try to save face, probably by diametrically changing voting instructions because he "wants to save Italy". Pity he didn't think of that earlier. Would be good news for euro-stocks. My Unicredit chips are up another 2.25% today on expectations of positive vote.
At today’s meeting, which was held in Paris, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.50%, 1.00% and 0.00% respectively. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2013/html/pr131002.en.html
A reasonable and possible scenario which could play out, I believe in shorterm SP will decline back to 18c range with uncertainties with capital shortfall overhang along with EU bank stress tests, Currently out and waiting for 18-19c range before i re-enter.
Yup. So if you buy into the long-term proposition of BOI's business model and market position in a recovering Irish economy, this will be an acceptable ticket to pay if the current average price you paid for shares is low enough. That's the real choice. Personally I am in at 11.67, and I believe it can reach 30 cents stable in 2 years and 40 cents by 2017. Once factored in a 15-20% price tag for my own contribution to eventual recap, I land at an equivalent target of 32, which is still 50% more than today, not counting a return to dividend policy by 2015. 40 cents would be equal to a 12bn market cap which is equal to 66% of the 2008 18bn peak. For me it's hold and top up big time if you can at anything between 18 and 20, or obviously below 18.
"somebody is going to have to fill the hole in the balance sheet either through impaired profitability and/or recapitalisation"
Agreed, However with merkle and her european allies not willing for eu fund to be set up to recap eu banks further dillution will be heaped upon current bank shareholders who will be expected to fill capital shortfall.
"somebody is going to have to fill the hole in the balance sheet either through impaired profitability and/or recapitalisation." That's basically the way I see it too (and I've had that coffee in the meantime)!! :-) Yes, let's also check out what Draghi has to say this afternoon.
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