Judging by some of the posts here over the last couple of weeks there must be a few guys hurting this week. I bought BoI at just over €1 six years ago. I thought in 5 years I would be a happy man. Unfortunately share buying is unpredictable so I still have 4 years left In my second 5 year plan.
However, I am now averaged down to mid 30's and have 3 x the number of shares I started with. The speed of the price increase over the last couple of week caught me by surprise and to be honest scared me a bit. I want Boi to behave like normal company again where visible progress and good management is rewarded with a steady increase in share price over time. While up 20% down 18% in a month is a traders dream it's definitely not a long term investors.
I'm not sure what WR sold at but 32..33c I expect. I am taking this to be the base price for now. It may go lower for a short time but I believe 32..33 will be where it will settle and progress from. So, this evening I have sold out my very disappointing NTR holding (note to self.. never buy on the grey market again, include AIB in that) and on Monday will take the opportunity to average down a cent or two again.
I do this in the full knowledge that I may experience more pain with these share but with the certainty that I will more than double my investment in time. The "time" here is elastic. It's a pointless exercise predicting the price in 6 months never mind a year untill BoI starts behaving in a normal way.
Last October I believe AIB was .17c the swim to 8c or is a couple of weeks ago . People buying AIB now will in afraid get stung HARD! Remember BOI was 13cent last year now will balance around .28-29 BUT last see first Q results as really positive and them a REAL rise in the SP relevant to what bank is worth and with an eye on growing prospects . As long as you have chips on the table you're still in the game ! Relax.
I honestly don't understand all the negativity this week.
As you said, the results published where good, so that's a positive straight away. The economy is starting to recover (if you listen to the news anyway) at a gradual pace. That's another positive for BOI, as it's the biggest bank in Ireland, and returning to profit while the country is still suffering some what, can only be a positive for future forecasts?
Even if people think BOI's market cap is high, it's no where near AIB and PTSB. Today AIB shares are worth more than half of BKIR shares, yet AIB's market cap is almost 9 times more than BOI. That's shocking!
I understand why some people panicked when WR sold some shares (a third of his shares), but in fairness he's a business man and he has made a huge profit, that's another positive. Somebody actually bought his near 2billion shares at .33, that's a huge positive! I bet nobody would buy that amount of AIB shares? But yet they're rising while BKIR is falling (confusing). When you look at the volumes of AIB shares traded, compared to what they rise by, it's very strange. Them volumes wouldn't even budge BKIR.
I'm either completely off the mark, and missing some seriously important facts. Or the people buying AIB and PTSB shares at their current prices are seriously stupid? As for the people selling BKIR. That's a massive mistake IMO.
I do wonder am I missing something with AIB?? I really cannot understand that share price. If I was to buy that share it would have to be selling for 2 for a penny!
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