John, I think the answer for me would be USA. Largest, most flexible economy of the 3, own (global reserve) currency too big to bet against, capable of generating internal demand, yes huge debt bow wave, but enormous servicing capacity, major R&D capacity, always first out of global recessions. Too big to be allowed to fail, so I would lend them money at the lowest rate.
Of course the negatives are there, but on a relative scale with Ireland and the UK? The demographics in the US may point to "secular stagnation" but people want a return on their money and if there are no productive investments to be made they will have to accept a very low return, this will inevitably rekindle a virtuous capital usage cycle, even if necessary with capital flight.
You may be right that Ireland is a good answer, but I think the reason would be Mario Draghi and not a temporary housing boom of no lasting structural value-generating benefit to the economy (unless it also involves building roads, communications, and the civic infrastructure required to make the small open economy more competitive in the global market).
Hats off to Mario: an Italian at the helm of the Institution that replaced the Bundesbank precisely in the moment in which periphery economies' malaise threatened the very values of German fiscal order and the Euro itself. Who would ever have believed it 20 years ago?
Hats off to the Germans too for accepting it. They get a lot of bashing here in Italy for their excessive focus on austerity and good economic management without indebtedness but people have no idea what it means to the Germans to relinquish control over their monetary policy to an intergovernmental institution headed by an Italian.
No idea at all.
By the way John, the UK is not in the Eurozone, but I understand what you mean. I don't see them leaving the EU though, too much at stake and not enough independent ability to be outside the main trading bloc and market on the planet.
Traditionally the post office in Britain has an association with small post office savings schemes and stamps etc. Among other things. You could pay license fees, collect pension payments and buy stamps too obviously. As such it's target market was old age pensioners and people who wanted to post items. The main advantage to Bkir in this case is that these post offices are established already and there are over 3000 of them. Additionally for convenience the opening hours include weekends too. The new services (new in most cases to the post office) they offer coupled with opening hours and local convenience make this a very obvious but well rounded idea. The British people will use this new service based on convenience more than on the principle that banks screwed them. After all you still need a savings and loan service either way.
Happy idea from radar to do a meet and greet here.. I am based in Switzerland.50+ I used to lounge here a lot a couple of years ago. Stumbled onto this place when I was actively day trading BOI and AIB in the midst of the credit crunch. Became a serial poster in that period. Invented something called the BKIR CUP, which we ran for about 6 months together with a fella called Cranfield. Still follow this place, as it is still one of the happier forums, despite the archaic forum platform. Tried posting limericks in the past, but gave up. But radar still does his poems, and that's good to see.
I must correct myself. Johnmcclean, you are absolutely right. The £17 billion in deposits are all BoI deposits. I was down at my local branch today and learned that the UK government NS&I accounts are no longer handled through the Post Office. All Post Office accounts, savings, deposit and ISAs accounts are now deposited with Bank of Ireland (UK). That’s good news indeed. PatMc
Doughnuts, I was just wondering if a post on economics would be off topic here but seeing as you have asked a question it would be rude not to answer. First let me say that reading about economic stuff is totally a hobby and my very short and fraught flirt with education ended the second my leaving cert was over. Its only later in life I regretted it and while my kids are free to live life as they see fit they must all do it with a degree.
Anyway, my uneducated answer to your question is Rep of Ireland. Amazingly enough the reason I say that is because I think what got us into the mess we are in has the potential to get us out of it in the medium term. Property. After 8 years of zero construction ireland now needs houses. Sure, there are empty houses in plenty of towns around the country but not where their needed. We are about to join the rest of the developed world in becoming an urban centered country. It was happening slowly before the crash but its now a rush to the cities. Housings is in ridiculously short supply in dublin and the other main centres are not far behind. Ignore thoes who say there is no bubble in dublin, there dam well is.
I see recent estimates that we need anything from 25, 000 to 35, 000 houses per year for the next 10 years to fill demand. With the employment (mainly from the dole lines) generated and the 47% revenue the government get per unit its a good starting point to repay that debt. Add in an almost totally export generating economy and the mass of FDI (regardless of tax status) and the future is bright.
Why not the UK? They have done extremely well since the crash and managed their economy very well. Indeed Ireland is benefiting there through our exports. However, they are heading into the unknown by talking of leaving the eurozone. Who knows what will happen but it could be a choppy 10 years if they do. Absolutely, leaving may turn out for the best but I'd rather not bet my cash on it.
The US. a mountin of debt that needs repaying already. The financial management by the fed to make that mountain dissappear will be interesting. The obvious way is to inflate their way out of it but what if despite after all the qe and 0 interest rates they can't , what happens then. The new buzz phrase appearing in economic publications these days is "secular stagnation" . Its not easy to explain but basically the fear is that the US and also Europe has reached an age profile that is more interested in saving than spending. So no matter what dollars the US print and push into the economy it won't matter. There isn't the demand to take it and productivity use it to generate growth. What happens in stead is older people take it and save it. Interest rates are so low they raise their risk profile and look at bonds and shares. That flood of money drives irish borrowing rates to 2% and US stock markets to new heights as is evident by the historic length of the present bull run. No good for the long
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