They have played their cards very close to their chest so guesstimating is as good as it gets. I think mortgage lending will be the black spot here but UK could surprise. The problem for mortgage lending in ireland will presist into 2015. There's just not enough housing on the market (in the right places) to impact on lending figures. Car loan figures will be good but small money compared to houses.
Figures on arrears will be interesting. Potential for improvement there.
yes, revised downwards a couple of weeks ago reflecting the reduction in the Loan balances evident in the 1Q IMS. Things might be improving in Ireland but what is very clear from the 1Q IMS is that repayments are > than new drawdowns. I think the key area of focus in the 1H report next week will be whether this reversed in 2Q and the outlook on this equation for the rest of the year and 2015, for two reasons; 1.) More loans more NII and fees 2.) Drives the NIM higher
The recently announced e2.1bn of new loan approvals to the SMEs in 1H 2014 is only 7% higher than same period last year which still suggests to me things are still slow at the corporate level as I would like to see double digit growth. Will we see double digit growth in mortgages or the UK business? I suspect not, as why release information on SMEs. So if this is all pretty boring the focus will be the outlook, what's the 2H looking like? If they say nothing on the outlook that says everything. Think this is the reason this share price is going nowhere in last week or so as market cant answer this question
If they are then they sound reasonable. If they are not they would be a reasonable set of expectations. I would be happier if they were 25, 60 and 130 million euro bigger respectively. But that's more to do with hope than evidential. Thing's are improving in Ireland so if the rate of improvement accelerates I would expect the bank to prosper accordingly.
as we wait to see 1H 2014 results I would be interested to see NET INCOME forecasts by various brokers for 1H and FY 2014 & FY 2015. I will start it off with Goodbody's. They are as follows; 1H 2014 : e213MM FY 2014: e449MM FY 2015: e766MM
If we get a few inputs we can calc our own concensus & see who is on top of this share from the broker community after results
For those that dont understand large sell/buy orders at the end of trading, these are dealers ,traders,brokers,settling there accounts at the end of the trading day, it is not one order but could be made up of several orders or contracts made between different brokers,dealers at different prices,at different times of the day hence some blue some red and never at the closing price.
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