id be amazed if we were at $1.22 this time next year , the euro will strengthen on thursday , once we realise that no QE is coming , the dollar is in an uptrend v the euro but i see us going back to $1.35 before we get to $1.30
Here is a way of maybe understanding. The Euro/USD exchange rate went to a high around April this year and since then it has been falling. Looking at the last 10 years it seems likely that we are headed to a rate of around $1.22/ Euro and probably in the next 4 months or so.. Senator knows way more than I do about charts so I will lask him to weigh in here.
If you accept this point then you can argue that IRE has about a 7% premium built into it and the folks buying IRE realize this. Until the exchange rate starts going the other way I dont see the premiums rising for a while
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