The big investment funds are likely looking at aib, the potential of aib as a long term holding ~ 5 yrs is very attractive, keep a watch on boi & aib.. Ross has left considerable change on the table by selling at 0.26... Aib is very similar to bankia, but much more attractive as long term investment, noonan could recoup the entire govt investments if he plays the cards well..
I'm had an early start this morning so all the zeroes are giving me double vision. I reckon every cent bkir goes up its worth around 45million to Michael and 20 million to watsa. If they read all the positive expectations on this forum they should be happy men.
Even though watsa has less than half noonan's holding, him selling will probably have a bigger impact on price. He probably has less reason to sell and he didn't at this price before.
Government priority seems to be aib at the moment. Seeing as there was a bit of a "Ross beat noonan to it" at 33c last time he might like to go that little bit further as well. Pure speculation on my part. Pointless trying to second guess a finance minister and a billionaire.
I'd say politics will trump business and Govt will exit before the election to show a success for the taxpayer. Jam today. He's long pretty much the rest of the banking sector anyway. Lloyds is the template in my view - the UK sells in stages touting that taxpayers get their GBP back at a profit. If I was in his shoes with the debt and deficit metrics of Ireland, I'd sell too and reduce sovereign borrowings. Less conviction about Watsa - bragging rights over a Molson with Ross if he sells out for more?
Only my thinking here but have either a reason to sell. The bank could easily return 5 to 10% for the next few years. In A Time when yeild Is hard To find its a return watsa might appreciate. If Michael does get to refinance the IMF loan at 1.8% ( looks likely) and bkir gives him 6% it starts to look better to hold. Add a dividend in a couple of years and even better.
For me the drivers of the share price are: (a) improving Irish macro picture; (b) leading player in an ever more concentrated domestic bank market with attractive diversification in the UK; (c) adequate and growing capital (expect BKIR to pass the Oct stress tests; then repay the prefs and meet Basel 3 fully loaded by early 2016); (d) strong liquidity position and a highly accommodative ECB monetary policy; (e) adequate NPL coverage with improving asset quality and declining NPLs; (f) return to profitability with significant operating leverage, so improvements in NII, NIR, and provision releases should flow through to the bottom line as costs are under control; (g) a return to dividends in 2016, with nothing else to do with the cash other than pay it out to shareholders, and (h) strong leadership team. The risks to me are: (a) reversals in any of the above, (b) failure to grow the loan book, (c) regulatory curve ball – Central Bank decides to follow Sweden and hike capital and risk weightings, so depressing BKIRs RoE and valuation, (d) share overhang – Messrs. Noonan and Watsa virtually certain to dump c 20% of BKIR over the next 12-months (initially it will depress the share price but no further overhangs thereafter, so medium term positive), (e) Govt. imposes further reparations pre-election through a hike in the bank levy, caps on fees and charges etc., (f) idiosyncratic event – BKIR go all out next month to really mess up payroll, ATMs go offline, hack etc., and (g) valuation relative to other banking stocks – BKIR is not a dripping roast of value. I think the positives currently offset the negatives, and this has driven the re-rating and I remain positive over the medium term but would not be surprised with a pull-back given relative valuation. Personally, I don’t see insiders at play setting this up for a fall. Outside of Noonan and Watsa, the top shareholders are Capital Group, FMR, Europacific and Blackrock, and I suspect they hold BKIR in value/growth/long only funds. 9 brokers rate it a buy, 3 hold and 6 sell.
My opinion is not unlike yours, I agree with all that you say. I think however that after staying around the .23 / .25 mark for such a long time that we were due a rise given the general economic improvement. It is a bunch of conservative buyers waiting and following the bigger picture.
You quote my past contributions eloquently about us small investors knowing nothing even though to read what some of us here write, you might be confused into thinking they know everything.
We are at the mercy of them and if not careful could be killed stone dead by their bullets.
The decision of Neil Woodford relating to his HSBC holding does register with me.
As small investors we will all ask could we have a safer better and faster growing home for our loot.
Alas that question can only be answered with the benefit of hindsight but at least we can sleep knowing that Bkir is safe and though it might be slow growing it is growing.
i have been stuck in here for past 5 years,my average is .39 cents .i look in most days and get a good insight into the opinions of people who know more than me regarding this baby.it is on the rise again but ill be gutted if it is just another set up,just put up my average to perhaps give solace to those of us who are yet to break even.rioja and brie ,my favourite.
Radar I expect no one knows the answer to your question. As you have said many times, we small investors are not in control here and are not in the loop as too what goes on in the back ground.
For what it's worth my opinion is we now have built in assumptions in the price. 1. Boi will pass the stress test. 2 . The irish economy is going to grow faster than the euro average. 3 bkir will post annual profits well beyond previous expectations. 4. Property prices will continue to rise and loan defaults will continue to fall. 5. They have 8 billion left aside and some ( a lot? ) will be returned to the balance sheet. 6. Draghi will deliver benifits to the bank. This sudden run up has come after H1 results. I think they surprised many and now expectations have been raised. You asked the question. What's your own opinion this fine autumn morning?
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