I must correct myself. Johnmcclean, you are absolutely right. The £17 billion in deposits are all BoI deposits. I was down at my local branch today and learned that the UK government NS&I accounts are no longer handled through the Post Office. All Post Office accounts, savings, deposit and ISAs accounts are now deposited with Bank of Ireland (UK). That’s good news indeed. PatMc
Doughnuts, I was just wondering if a post on economics would be off topic here but seeing as you have asked a question it would be rude not to answer. First let me say that reading about economic stuff is totally a hobby and my very short and fraught flirt with education ended the second my leaving cert was over. Its only later in life I regretted it and while my kids are free to live life as they see fit they must all do it with a degree.
Anyway, my uneducated answer to your question is Rep of Ireland. Amazingly enough the reason I say that is because I think what got us into the mess we are in has the potential to get us out of it in the medium term. Property. After 8 years of zero construction ireland now needs houses. Sure, there are empty houses in plenty of towns around the country but not where their needed. We are about to join the rest of the developed world in becoming an urban centered country. It was happening slowly before the crash but its now a rush to the cities. Housings is in ridiculously short supply in dublin and the other main centres are not far behind. Ignore thoes who say there is no bubble in dublin, there dam well is.
I see recent estimates that we need anything from 25, 000 to 35, 000 houses per year for the next 10 years to fill demand. With the employment (mainly from the dole lines) generated and the 47% revenue the government get per unit its a good starting point to repay that debt. Add in an almost totally export generating economy and the mass of FDI (regardless of tax status) and the future is bright.
Why not the UK? They have done extremely well since the crash and managed their economy very well. Indeed Ireland is benefiting there through our exports. However, they are heading into the unknown by talking of leaving the eurozone. Who knows what will happen but it could be a choppy 10 years if they do. Absolutely, leaving may turn out for the best but I'd rather not bet my cash on it.
The US. a mountin of debt that needs repaying already. The financial management by the fed to make that mountain dissappear will be interesting. The obvious way is to inflate their way out of it but what if despite after all the qe and 0 interest rates they can't , what happens then. The new buzz phrase appearing in economic publications these days is "secular stagnation" . Its not easy to explain but basically the fear is that the US and also Europe has reached an age profile that is more interested in saving than spending. So no matter what dollars the US print and push into the economy it won't matter. There isn't the demand to take it and productivity use it to generate growth. What happens in stead is older people take it and save it. Interest rates are so low they raise their risk profile and look at bonds and shares. That flood of money drives irish borrowing rates to 2% and US stock markets to new heights as is evident by the historic length of the present bull run. No good for the long
bulls and greed live above the 200, bears and fear below. Technically Bkir is looking good and I also think that Bkir will release reserves in 2H with more recovery in Ireland and european stress tests behind them. I think the smart money will start betting on this if .281 holds this week & is viewed as support. I think it will. What do I know though, i certainly can't write poetry, sadly.
Hey Richie, as per D-N get well soon....... Maybe you might even make a surprise appearance for a well deserved pint at our .40c bash. Don't worry, a back room will be organised for our resident poetry reciters namely radar and that air cooled flat twin head, 2cv.
is recovering after his planned early August surgery. He's supposed to be back on deck by September. Might be sitting up in bed in the private hospital in St. Vincents surfing our blog on his iPad. If you're reading Richie, all the best for a rapid recovery ! (and don't take the tight-lips thing seriously).
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