No you are not alone but the Bulls would say these negatives have been discounted and we have turned the corner. Broker ratings seem to support this. Whether we like it or not, banks have a necessary place in our society and to survive they need to generate and be allowed to make a profit. The highs of before might be a thing of the past but I believe we will get some way back to where we were before. I have a balanced portfolio and Barclays is the only bank I hold. GL
Am I alone in thinking that this so called recovery is fragile at best ? I am not in this industry but I am a Professional in a related industry and I am struggling to see a way forward, there are so many mixed indicators it is impossible to plan with any certainty. Barcs has been hammered, and will continue to be hammered, by the industry regulators for past insdiscretions. Until all the dirty washing has been sorted out this share will be speculative at best and will continue to bounce up and down. Forex fine is still hanging over us and, if the rumours are correct, Barcs will be lucky to get away with a fine of less than £1bn and if that is the level of the fine then you can say good bye to any increased dividend. Dark Pool - that is still to come.......... Rumours of defaults abound and could easily cause a market 'wobble' and who knows where this sp will be then. So in terms of why not 280p ? I would say there are many many reasons why..........
My reason for the investment is a return to tangible NAV at the vest least. That's on the basis that the Bank starts to achieve its cost of capital - an ROE of around 10% - actually its cost of capital is probably nearer 12%. I think that segues quite neatly with the "New Norm" idea that Bill Gross is putting out at the moment which is that the world has entered a period of high debt, low growth and deflationary trends, earmarked by very easy monetary policy including, but not restricted to, low interest rates. Whilst growth will be low, easy money will favour the banks and I think Barclays, therefore, is well placed to significant increase its ROE over the next few years. Notwithstanding fines - which will diminish - Barcs should return to at least asset value over the next two years. Well that is the theory!!
My reasons are increased dividends, new Chairman, cost savings, change of sentiment in the sector, higher profits in the pipeline, fx question to be shortly settled and currently undervalued. I see 260 Q1 and 300 end 2015. I'm not a go between and if the others don't wish to communicate with you, it's not my problem.
HSBC and Barclays will rule when the Bank stress test is announced tomorrow both Banks its roumered will pass the test with the most in hand the CO-OP is roumered to look like failing the test. All bodes well long term for Barclays increased Dividend and increased profits . Mr Jenkins has made his mark and also brought in top flight people to strengthen the Banks position.Operating Costs have been dramatically reduced and Mr Jenkins mantra for all employees is if you can't add value by doing something you Add Costs !! Barclays in my opinion will be the Bank to be involved with next year. My Best Wishes to All Investors
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