"I predicted with strong conviction this would fall to this level since Post results in Jan." And where exactly where those predictions posted given you joined this board in June... well, under this alias anyway.
I found your drivel amusing at first, but no longer. Filtered.
Nice opener Steve, I like that. Was that really a prediction or was it designed to stir up the conversation? It's certainly done the latter. And here's my half pennorth on the subject. I suppose that 60p is not unthinkable. It can't be. We've been there before in the not so distant past. And isn't that the nature of charting. Where the price has been in the past helps form our view of where it might go in the future. I think I;m not the only one on this board who was buying at that level. So I certainly won't be the only one who remembers what was going on at the time. But charts to one side... The fundamentals have improved a lot since then. Right? Not necessarily! I seem to recall the shares trading around 50p two days after the bank announced annual profits of £6,000,000,000. (That represented a price earnings ratio of about 1.) BUT... I also recall that at that time most people believed that Barclays would go bust as RBS and Lloyds had done and that the shares would be pretty much worthless. That, I suggest, was the essence of the 50p days. People believed that the shares were going to (approximately) zero. Perhaps because my imagination is limited, but I find it hard to imagine an alternative scenario in which we get to that price level. So Steve, do you believe that within the next few years we will be returning to those dark days? Do you believe that all the things the regulators have done in the past few years were a waste of time (requiring banks to hold drastically more capital and liquidity in particular) were a waste of time? I think most people on this board (and I'd love to know if I'm wrong) recognise those factors as a significant headwind. It's harder to get a satisfactory return on all that additional capital. But if we're heading back to the days when everybody knows the banks are going down and it's all for nothing... Hope I'm not putting you off Steve. I'd love to hear sone more about your scenario.
Do people believe this could really get towards a £1 price per share. Imo that would surely be bottom and a great buy in point? I just can't see it actually getting that low on branch ratio or profit margin, even taking in the ongoing scandals and forthcoming fines.
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