No firm idea - but I would hazard a guess at around 3 to 4 x the current SP - IMVHO I do think though, as I suspect you are thinking that the majors may be circling to take us out before it would get too expensive bearing in mind the news flow we are expecting and the reaction by the market to it. We would be very attractive following that and would add a bit more certainty to a buyer - be we would cost more - there's the rub. A farm in would be cheaper and less risky - our fresh data, resource estimates and signed GSA would help making that kind of deal - with an option to be bought off eventually still in the back pocket.
The most important part re our acreage is clearly the huge reserves estimates we have. The very fact that our wells are big producers though is key. There's no point having vast amounts of reserves if you wells only produce at low outputs. The less wells needed the greater the viability.
Ntorya produced at 20 mcf/d (circa 3000 barrels of oil eq) with 140 barrels of condensate. Now this was from a 3m layer. We had actually hit 25m pay zone but they didn't want to open it up in case of water influx which could compromise the well but the key is that it exists. So that hints toward the actual production being able to match the massive 100mcf off shore discoveries. Companies don't drill off shore for fun it's because pressures in the reservoirs are superior. However, if they could match it onshore then it would be no competition. The next point to note is our likonde discovery hit a massive 250 - 300 limestone reservoir with oil and gas shows throughout. Although the hydrocarbons had migrated from this well it shows the huge potential if we hit oil or gas on the next drill.
This is why it's essential we drill the next wells ourselves. We have not even scratched the surface. We have found massive producing gas wells while looking for oil. Imagine if we actually target gas/condensate discoveries.
The new CPR, coupled with our GSA and a huge RBL thrown in, and we are going to look like a mid tier on a mission :-)
Thanks for the message yesterday, just had the chance to log on and read the different posts. Not so long ago I was struggling with the thought that AEX really could go under yet now I’m thinking about could we eventually end up with an sp of 10p plus and if a takeover does occur or AEX manages to drill themselves what will happen I relation to sp. As people know I’ve been in here for some time and have at times stuck every penny I could in here. I posted recently my purchase of 2.6 mil shares just before the rise started and that alone has added 30k to my AEX stake. I’m now really starting to believe the dream, let’s hope it does become reality. GL to you TIPTOP and all AEX holders.
Thanks for your comments. We have some way to go yet and good news next week will help us on our way. Question to both of you if a major started a bidding war Monday for aminex what realistic price could we expect to see based on what we have confirmed in the ground already and the fact we will be selling gas early next year?
That's the thing mate. Cove was sold for £1.22bn for 8.5% of offshore block mozambique but it is in the Ruvuma delta. At the time the resource was estimated at 30 TCF.....so 8.5% = 3.3 TCF.
So they paid £1.22bn for 3.3 TCF of offshore gas.
We have similar evidence with our Ntorya discovery which has now been upgraded to 2.3 TCF. So that alone is nearly equivalent and we have much lower onshore overheads and an easier route to market.
Now consider that we have an estimated 13 TCF on our acreage to which we own circa 70%. That's a massive 9 TCF 100% to us, plus our condensate.
I dare not even extrapolate that figure to the Cove sale price. The key is the offshore discoveries have little evidence with only 1 well drilled on most leads and that's enough to raise these kind of figures.
Based on our current rate of market Sp gain (250% over the last 3 weeks) my excel graph trend line is telling me to seriously revise my Christmas 5p prediction and quadruple it - time to book that estate agency appointment in Cannes....
However, the market of course, will be the final arbiter.
25p. ..... so that's circa £500m MC. If we go it alone and drill 4-5 wells in the new enlarged Ntorya reservoir (Ntorya, Namisange and likonde) + the upside from the light oil discovery . Then this would prove up enough gas to achieve that figure with that part of our portfolio alone. I expect the new enlarged Ntorya reservoir to hold 8-10 TCF using my calcs from our 2 discoveries and the outline of the leads. From memory BG only has circa 11TCF in 1P reserves (but I would have to check that figure). Just highlights how immense our acreage is but it's very early days proving up our blocks. To some degree this has already been acheived by the multinationals around us. Just my thoughts but hope it helps. 1 - 3 year target IMHO
I have often wondered if you were getting paid to promote aminex. If not then the BoD should be signing you up and ditch their other PR men. I have been in here for years now and still sitting on losses but averaging down when possible. I need 3p now to break even. Would love to see this rise to 10p plus. Question i have for you is this. Takeover price per share? Could we see the dizzy heights of 25p with our african assets or just a pipe dream.
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