If we are on the same page here J-KJager and Gaslady but this was taken from the Half Yearly Report dd. 28th August 2014. The Gas Sales Agreement has been agreed with the TPDC with no material issues remaining and is currently being vetted by the Government prior to execution, together with, we understand, similar agreements between TPDC and the other Tanzanian gas producers.
Here's a thought! I am continually drawn back to Tembo 1 for some reason and I think a moment of clarity has just descended! TipTop, you have said that the geological formations are linked to what they are drilling at Tembo 1 and given that as a truth, why would Bernard put his esteemed name to a CPR that could be discreditted by a dry result at Tembo 1? AEX don't have to release a CPR until they are ready to do so, and what benefit do they have in releasing a CPR before Tembo 1 announces results (which they stated pre drill would only be done once they had reached TD)? If we released a highly positive CPR before Tembo 1 results and those results were negative it would cause damage and undermine the CPR massively; if we released highly positive CPR after postitive Tembo 1 results it would massively reinforce the CPR and the entire commercial positioning of any negotiating power held by AEX with regard to the Ruvuma PSA. Just thinking, we need funding right now. We know its there, but we need funding........
How far are his plans now - well might well be some re-engagement and chat going on in the background with possible suitors from last years F/O effort? They are certainly not all sitting around waiting for Bernard to finish up the CPR. Given that they have released two chunky updates it must be there or thereabouts, as they couldn't have released those upgrade RNSs otherwise. What with DL breaking the unwritten rule as the minor partner re the two well drill I have an itch that something is happening in the background here. Basic facts are that SOLO have nailed their colours to the mast in raising some dollar (for something, might be HH or A.N.Other investment?) and made statements on 2 well drill in Ruvuma PSA - probably not a coincidence?; AEX remain quiet but not obliged to say anything until they have to; Tembo 1 about to reach TD somewhere between now and end of month (depending on delays encountered and actual vs differential between 60 and 90 day estimated drill) which may add value to Ruvuma if successful; Pipeline on target for completion. AEX seem to hold a lot of cards at the moment for me. Two questions strike me as paramount right now, and yes, they are quite leading questions - why did AEX BoD virtually run this company into the ground earlier this year, threatening the loss of everything? To me it was EXTREME brinkmanship and demonstrates that they were not willing to let go of a chunk of what they knew they had for less than its true worth - hence drops to sub 1p. Secondly, just how important is the relationship with TPDC and the Tanzanian Government here, as they could have been called into default on a number of occassions to date, but have instead managed to push timeframes for completion of commitments back time and again. I still maintain that in Africa politics is money and money is politics. With an election due next year and a new Presidential candidate due by default, there is no way TPDC or the Tanzanian Governement will allow this to fail. Just think of the timeframes involved if that were to happen! Most recently news has appeared about exporting energy to Zambia and ??? - now where is this going to come from? Certainly not the offshore deepwater players who are 5 to 10yrs away from production. Which begs the question who is in a position to supply within the next 12 months? Really feel big news around the corner. Sleep tight everyone and sweet dreams........
GasLady - this is new to me. Quite a while ago I was thinking (and posted either here or on Solo) that TPDC may have been saying something along the lines of "until we know you have funding in place to meet your commitments, no GSA". The bit you pull out implies AEX may be saying they won't sign until TPDC put a guarantor in place? Am I missing somethig critical here??? Would appreciate yout thoughts.
Jay was also in talks with the TPDC in early August about a gas hub near Likonde. He was clearly very confident about Likonde/Ntorya even back then. The TPDC would not even consider this for less than 3 TCF and they would have to be very confident.
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