Isn't the reason for the subdued SP performance for the last 3 months been due to this big court ruling judgement being already factored into the SP by the market? A 5% SP one day fall would suggest so, with a little mini dead cat bounce today as almost inevitable. (Meaning a further drift downwards come Monday?)
The simple MA's since the big 2010 fall have been remarkably accurate predictors. Right now the lower MA's on any ratio you apply, being beneath the higher MA's indicate the SP will languish around or below this level for maybe the rest of the month at the very least, until a crossover hoves into view.
I've been stalking BP for that juicy divi to go in my SIPP, so anytime during September I will buy in. Even if one waits until a simple MA crossover, BP shows a consistent predictability, so once over and on the up it doesn't usually turn back on an indecisive sixpence; like a great ocean liner changing course, there's plenty of time to adjust buy/sell position before it turns again.
For the next month (INMO) BP will be, if not quite a bargain, defo a buy for longer term SP recovery. By the way MA's don't show a 'turn' just yet - even before the judge's ruling, so could be by end of this month or end of next month. There's something cathartic about getting bad news accepted and dealt with, rather than worrying over what it might be, so I would be surprised if the SP is still falling/ languishing in Nov/Dec - I'd accept a static in low 400p's at the very, very, worst, but hey what does anyone know?
Thats the reason why they will win an appeal Diver169 i agree and along with judge barbier even the supreme court will realize that there has to be a fair portion of blame attached to all parties.For me the key question is when our Mr Cameron does all of us a favour and asks his counterpart enough is enough ,what about all of the bp american workers i bet they sick of it ?
We were bullish on BP into today. We are even more bullish now that shares are trading at a significant bargain. The inconvenient fact of the matter for some is that BP (NYSE:BP) isn't going to be going anywhere anytime soon. While certain contributors on this site seem to think that the Gulf Oil spill is going to result in some kind of irreversible "cash hemorrhage" that the company can't recover from, it's simply not realistic. And also, absolutely nothing has been confirmed yet. The judgment today is going to result in a worst case penalty of around $15-$17 billion. To the bears, we are dealing with a company that finished 2013 with $22 billion cash on hand, up from $14 billion in 2012. BP, at the end of 2013, had $305 billion in assets. A $15-$17 billion fine (the maximum), while large, isn't going to do more to BP than the DOJ's fine is going to do to Bank of America. We had priced this news into our first analysis of the company and still do not see the risk increasing as much as the rest of the market did here.
While we are also aware of the risks associated with BP's stake in Russia's Rosneft, we believe that sanctions over the Ukraine crisis do little more than continue to help represent a long-term buying opportunity for BP shares.
Though the family fund does not currently own BP, a 5% dip like today's in this market represents nothing for us but a buying opportunity.
BP today asked the Court to remove the administrator of the Gulf claims program. We took this action because it was recently revealed that he had not properly disclosed his prior representation of the state of Louisiana, as well as its businesses and residents, in Deepwater Horizon-related matters that directly overlap with his current responsibilities as Claims Administrator. Mr. Juneau's bias is evident not only in his relationships before assuming his current position, but also in his work during his tenure at the claims program. We believe that he has adopted positions on critical issues that deviated from the settlement program and mirrored those he took on behalf of his prior clients.
The owner is responsible for all operations, you can't delegate responsibility, BP approved the procedures and BP ultimately decided to move the rig. I'm waiting to see how low this goes before topping up as it will recover. But this will impact current operation spend, so it will be a slower recovery. GLA
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