as a matter of interest could you answer a question for me, I have been a large shareholder in centamin this year, but eventually sold out at a loss, the same applies to shg I was in here also, with 700,000 shares, again I sold out at a loss, mainly to move into another company in another sector. I am now very tempted to buy back into shg, but was intrigued with your projection on pog, can you tell me as I don't know much about pog, what has caused them to fall from over £ 4 this year to 60p, apart from the fall in gold prices. thanks.
Compare that to POG which has a market cap of £122m but will have gross revenue of over £700k ($1.2bn) and will have paid off over £180m debt during the period Q113-Q114. Plenty of underpriced goldies out there, just need to pick the cheapest and wait for the gold price to recover
SHG should ramp up to something like 85,000 ozs production in 2014 after new crusher circuit is installed in first quarter. Lets assume no hedging and an average gold price of $1,300 for next year. SHG have been undertaking operational cost savings which should bring All in cash cost down to $1,000 per oz.
This would give a gross profit of $25.5m ($1,300-$1,000 = $300 * 85,000 = $25.5m)
Now, Shanta begin their debt repayments at the end of Jan 2014 which are payable at $0.938m per month so multiply by 12 to get the total debt repayments for 2014 = $11.256m.
That would give a net profit of $14.244m for 2014 ($25.5m - $11.256m = $14.244m including all debt repayments.
This would put SHG at the current SP on a 2014 PE of 3.5 - yes folks I'll repeat that a growth company with stable gold production on a PE of 3.5 on current SP and based on relatively modest gold price prediction of $1,300
If that doesn't make this one of the best value cheapest shares on AIM I don't know what does.
This seems in a perfect position to bounce now. Those who don't get in soon may miss the opportunity I sense. The wind is coming in our direction. I'm back in today after 3 months out of SHG. Long term growth prospects are great. PoG to move in our favour and increased production in 2014. Come on SHG
Must of been enough buyers though to let it go through. It looks like this could be starting to turn but not 100%. The RSI is 9 on the 3 month view which is oversold indicating a reversal at some point, but there is a change on the 1 month view last 2 days indicating a slight strengthening, it does seem that this might be near the bottom. So purely on this i've invested today. Might be totally wrong but give it a few days so im still 50/50.
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