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Redrow Share Chat (RDW)



Share Price: 637.50Bid: 637.00Ask: 638.00Change: 7.50 (+1.19%)Riser - Redrow
Spread: 1.00Spread as %: 0.16%Open: 633.00High: 639.50Low: 632.50Yesterday’s Close: 630.00


Share Discussion for Redrow


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2227
Posts: 447
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:632.00
Expantion into the Midlands
Tue 12:24
"During the year we acquired Radleigh Homes, a small Derby-based homebuilder. The acquisition allowed us to accelerate the opening of a new East Midlands division and has given us a pipeline of excellent sites from which to expand."
 
2227
Posts: 447
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:637.50
A new north-south property divide
Mon 16:55
House prices: signs of new north-south divide in UK market emerge | Business
Angela Monaghan

A new north-south property divide is emerging in the UK ahead of the festive season, with people selling second-stepper homes in the north of England standing the best chance of finding a buyer by Christmas, according to Rightmove.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/16/house-prices-signs-of-new-north-south-divide-in-uk-market-emerge
2227
Posts: 447
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:613.00
Comment
11 Oct '17
"Currently the rest of the UK appears to be benefiting from the lack of affordability and stock in London. Buyers are moving further out of the capital in order to secure their footing on the housing £ladder££ no snakes here £"

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article60442.html
2227
Posts: 447
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:613.50
'Garden City'
11 Oct '17
The £2bn development is being described as a garden city.

In total 7,000 homes will be built on the site bordering Radyr, Fairwater, Pentrebane and St Fagans.

Lead developer, Redrow Homes is currently preparing the groundworks for 120 two, three and four bedroom homes.

Plasdwr is a development as part of the city£s Local Development Plan to build 41,000 homes across approved sites in the city.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/work-set-begin-next-stage-13712068
2227
Posts: 447
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:608.00
Comment
9 Oct '17
By Warren Lewis 9th October 2017

North East property prices have continued to flout pessimistic predictions and are currently 5% above levels recorded this time last year £ with homes in some areas valued at 10% more than twelve months ago.
http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/north-east-house-prices-up-5-year-on-year.html
http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/north-east-house-prices-up-5-year-on-year.html
strictlybricks
Posts: 170
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:610.00
RE: bwy vs rdw
7 Oct '17
Nige, your comment "I expect it will Tony P at bvs, even longer to turn bvs around. (Not surprised he was selling!)"

Nige, are you perhaps confusing Bovis with Berkeley here..?

I'm not aware that there is any turnaround at Berkeley required, though it's not a company I invest in as, smart operator that Mr Pidgley may be, his personal financial interests are a lot less well aligned with those of his share holders than Steve Morgan's are at Redrow - as was demonstrated recently with shareholders at Berkeley becoming rather naffed off with the big bonuses being paid to directors there (whereas Steve Morgan doesn't even take a salary...)

Nothing like that going on at Redrow.

I'm interested to see how your notion about pre-announcement price hikes works out for Bellway coming up, as I imagine that's why you're favoring them above Redrow? Though I currently have Redrow at a few percent advantage over Bellway in terms of value.

I'm also bearing in mind that the scribblers only have Bellway in for a single digit growth in EPS for this year already completed - I have them in for a bit more than that but still a lot less than the 26.7% that Redrow achieved for 2017 or the similar figure that Telford are down for for 2018...

The TEF Musketeers seem to be thinking that the first half for Telford won't be so great - but for the past three years they've only averaged 30% of their profit in the first half so I guess if it's any more than that this time then that's a bonus - though I have no idea what the market might make of it..?

At a PBV of 1.44, a tad lower even than that paragon of house building efficiency, Bovis, Telford are currently the lowest in the entire sector...

So, given all the potential there, surely that must mean a fair bit of potential for bad news is already priced in?

But what do I know - or care, in the short term anyway...?

Completely separately, Nige, don't know if you still read my blog..?

If you do, I wondered if you might be interested in the full monty weighted book value workshop I've talked about on there..?

The one that is already planned is now full but I anticipate doing more next year if this one goes well - and clearly, from your various comments and the fact that you have this grand analysis project under way, you're surely a true spreadsheet aficionado, so that's not likely to be a problem for you..? :-)

If it appeals, perhaps come back to me directly by email, or via the blog, rather than on here....?
Nige_W
Posts: 936
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:610.00
RE: bwy vs rdw
7 Oct '17
Hi Strictly
You make a very good point, my dates are wrong, but this creates the idea of a delay.
Everything moves forwards. I didn't realise he left in 2000, (ancient History now) and didn't realise it was as early as 2009 he came back. My earliest table for rdw is 2014 when it was still going backwards, but since then the Sp has been bril. So if it took Steve M 5 years to turn rdw around, I expect it will Tony P at bvs, even longer to turn bvs around. (Not surprised he was selling!)
Last point there are spanners flying around, so I don't really think you can take a long term value position, my idea is to go with the flow. As I said I am moving from rdw to bwy right now, while holding a bunch in bdev before XDivDt.
Already well up on bdev now, so very happy.
The last couple of months I have been working on XDivDt after FinRes (psn, tw and bdev) and that has been also been working well.
My system needs loads more data which will take me some time to enter. Never thought it would get so complicated, but feel I must make it the best I can.
BoL
2227
Posts: 447
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:614.00
Propert in the top northern cities
5 Oct '17
telegraph.co.uk
What £500,000 buys you in the UK's top northern cities compared to London
Sophie Christie 4 October 2017 £

House prices are rising in all parts of the country except London, and buy-to-let investors are increasingly shunning the traditionally profitable capital city for northern hotspots where property is cheap and returns are high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/500000-buys-uks-top-northern-cities-compared-london/
strictlybricks
Posts: 170
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:611.50
RE: bwy vs rdw
5 Oct '17
Nige,

"Hi Razor
As you might see from my prev post the founder, biggest shareholder and Chairman of rdw, Steve Morgan has sold a bunch of shares and is saying he is taking a back seat in the company. Last time he stepped down the Sp collapsed until he returned and got the company going again."

Nige, it might be helpful to be careful with any memory of the numbers here lest any inaccuracy in this has an inappropriate impact on current decision making..?

Steve Morgan stepped down in November 2000, or thereabouts, and the share price was around 150p.

From there, in common with the other builders, the priced sailed comfortably up to peak at around 550p in around January 2007.

So far, so good, and no negative impact from Steve Morgan having gone A.W.O.L. as, at the peak point then, the PBV was up around 2.0.

Come the deluge, and it was like Warren Buffett's pithy maxim "It's only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked".

And so it was - as the boys left in charge of the Redrow farm had made a complete dog's breakfast of it and Captain Steve then took back the reins in March 2009. (sorry about all the changing metaphors :-) )

And who could complain about progress there since..?

But the point I'm making is that the market didn't noticeably react to his leaving last time and, thus far, only seems to have been temporarily spooked this time - perhaps given that it coincided with that master of calling the property cycle, Tony Pidgley of Berkeley Homes, also outing some shares.

But Steve Morgan hasn't stepped out he's just stepped back a bit, he still owns a shed load of shares, and he's more recently announced a big company share buy back agreement which on the one hand, at current prices, hurt the net asset value of his personal and charitable holdings in Redrow but, on the other, increases his percentage holding.

So, I for one am not seeing any lack of commitment by Steve Morgan in that and for me Redrow remains right up there with Bellway and Telford...

Moving on, Nige, you did recently ask me on here about what I thought about the current price of Redrow...?

If you were asking me is it good value then my view is yes, absolutely, I think RDW, TEF and BWY are all stonkingly good value at anywhere near their current prices.

If you're asking me if the price of Redrow makes it a good buy against what the price will be tomorrow, next week, next month or next year then I have to tell you I have absolutely no idea and that it would terrify me to be buying any share on that basis.... :-)
Nrimmer1005
Posts: 9
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:607.50
RE: Nrimmer
5 Oct '17
Cheers Guys a lot of helpful info#

I've put Telfords into my spreadsheet and they look like quite a nice value long term play, I especially like the fact they have more assets than MS and a nice P/E

Hopefully won't rise too much before my next invest date in November




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