""Our exploration track record has been poor for 3 years or more, and…….
Arctic Exploration RIP – high costs, enormous environmental risks, ‘killed off’ by Shell’s activities! Deep Water Exploration RIP – high costs, killed off by exponentiating drilling costs!
Thus in general, “exploring on the FTSE” (aka “Drilling on Wall Street”) can be way cheaper than exploring for new discoveries… So apart from having a whip-round to buy some beleaguered AIM company (and we seem to have plenty of candidates but rather few with decent assets), here are a few thoughts:
In the North Sea, discoveries that have already been made, especially Marginal Fields and those with Heavy Oil, offer a considerable resource. We need to see some innovations, some technologies, come along that make these viable at $60/barrel – I have seen one or two for Heavy Oil, nothing significant yet for Marginal Fields.
Assuming Iran opens up, we should recognise that the Iranians themselves have been pretty good at discovering oil and gas. However, the complex structural history of the Zagros means that such discoveries may be complex, requiring sophisticated, and as yet unapplied, subsurface delineation.
And then there are the Shales: following on from success in the USA, some questions occur: Where else? Where are the world-class source rocks that will deliver success internationally? Where in – or close to – Europe? What needs to change? How do we exploit shale oil when we may have to start with a much more modest wells data base than is normal in the USA? """
It seems the logical outcome based upon what we have been told by the company and one that would maximise 'stakeholder' value. I'm interested in opinions on what this means for the share price. I just have a hard time believing it would re-rate dramatically in the short term unless OPEC put their foot on the brake, but that continues to look unlikely.
Anyway, to your question. Do you mean immediately upon completion of successful negotiations with an interested party? What if the interested party is just providing funding to pay off the bonds and take Bentley to production. I doubt we'll see huge re-rating because that will put us at odds with every other small-cap oil company that already has funding. Although for sure there should be an allowance for not having to give our oil away at todays prices.
I suspect we'll probably see funding to take bentley to production. This will see an improvement in share price just because the uncertainty has been removed, and we'll see further increases as the market recovers, perhaps one day to new highs. What's that going to be though, years away not months.
A takeover at this oil price is likely to be less than favourable to shareholders compared to past deals when oil was higher, look at other transactions in recent months, but would result in a more immediate return for shareholders, although probably not enough to satisfy most long term holders.
Whatever happens, i think it's going to a be a surprise and not what any of us expect.
The resident guru thinks looking at the homemade video it can gauge what the CEO has been doing all year. Just watched the vid again, and you are right cat. Rupert doesn't look very reassured. Seriously are you for real?
Bit of friendly advice. Stop posting. nothing worse than a fellow shareholder making a complete fool of themselves, spouting garbage just for the sake of attention.
You do have an overactive imagination sometimes ugiebear.
The news this week, confirmation that due diligence has been completed and confirmation that Xcite has been in an extended close period amongst other nuggets, is indeed a step in the right direction and a hint that they have been working hard behind the scenes.
Very reassuring would be confirmation that Xcite have the funding to pay off the bonds and take bentley through to first phase production.
Rupert doesn't look very reassured in the most recent video. He looks tired as if he's been working hard on getting this sorted, but I'm sure he knows better than any of us that nothing is finalised until the signatures are on the contracts. At least he's been busy and not sunning himself in the Caribbean or off playing golf as some have cheekily suggested.
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