The idea of Bowleven launching a share buy back to warn off an unwelcome suitor is very interesting and IMO plausible.
I hadn't considered it, offers an explanation to an action which quite honestly surprised me, share buybacks tend to be structured so as not to drive up the SP for obvious reasons, rather take advantage of weakness (remaining shareholders get a bit upset later when some people have waltzed off with what they see as their cash and the SP fells). But you are right there are parties out their that could swallow up both Bowleven and VOG.
Bowleven, seem to have ignored that principle. of not driving the SP and waded in without proper controls.
Incidentally on Bowleven, I read an article a few weeks ago which suggested the offshore gas project FLNG lead partner wanted to cancel/delay as the economics no longer stacked up. Nothing from BLVN on their offshore drilling programme, but their partners Lukoil/New Age appear in no hurry to drill and have not even approved a programme. Bowleven are in dire need of something to warrant their management's salaries IMO whilst VOG has loads to do. I suspect the share buy back may have something to do with placating shareholders in view of their apparent lack of operational progress.
I agree that the possibility that BLVN might seek to bid for VOG is now a non-starter. But how about the idea that a 3rd party might be circling BLVN - hence the buy-back - and if/when successful the same 3rd party then comes after VOG? Certainly someone with deep pockets could take them both out and then exploit the synergies which have been staring us all in the face, for a couple of years or more.
Gracious, this JG has really precipitated some discussion on the BB, I can't keep up.
First. I would point out to newer investors that VOG has form in selecting a "supposedly" cheap drilling option (used Foo sourced rig last time) that turned out to be an expensive disaster. There is no way they could have used an RSM rig, if a serviceable one actually exists, it would have put VOG is RSM's pocket and allowed them to hold VOG to ransom by delaying drill start date for ever more.
They have chosen the safest option and I congratulate them for that, you get what you pay for or less, the drilling company is expanding into Cameroon and their local reputation is to be made lost on the VOG programme.
Sound like JG was/is trying to delay the programme by throwing any spanner he can into the works, if I had one guess I would suggest it is an attempt to delay paying their share of the drilling cost - maybe it's a problem for them and an opportunity for Bowleven.
Incidentally the recent BB comments about Bowleven possibly bidding for VOG, appear to ignore that the share buyback artificially inflates the value of Bowleven shares. As IMO any deal is almost certainly going to be a share swap(to preserve cash in a merged group), the chances of a deal have receded hugely because VOG shareholder would now feel cheated (I would) as deals tend to be based on the share price prior to an announcement as fair value. Conversely if it favoured VOG by ignoring the rise in Bowleven SP, Bowlevens' shareholders would feel cheated.
IMO the share buyback has screwed up any chance of a merger deal in the short term until BLVN's sp stabilises, unless it's at very hefty cash premium which, irrespective of the current cash pile, they cannot afford.
I am really hoping that whoever has spooked BLVN into kicking off the share buy-back will make a bid, hostile if needs be - and then the new owner comes after VOG. The synergies are obvious and yet the idea of joining forces would mean less room on the gravy train, especially for the likes of Foo and Hart, hence they continue to go it alone.
Then we wouldn't have to suffer the sort of nonsense where two partners in the same company (Gryn and Foo) can only settle their differences via court action.
I have been in BLVN and VOG for at least 5 years and am way under water in both. Now just want an end to this debacle.
Grimm agreed to the use of this rig, once the court found out that he had previously agreed to the use of the rig they threw out his application, he is lucky the judge didn`t take some action against him for wasting court time!
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