They need to deliver what they said in q4 update and do what they've signalled for 4 years - pay a dividend. The message to market of 'the danger has gone' is more important than the amount. A 2p divi would be equivalent to the 15% devaluation on what they have to pay on the £300m bond next year so flyshot in the big picture. Boring is good. Debt schedule then out until 2021 with option to reschedule. They have the flexibility to deliver so if they don't it will be disappointing.
I suspect ( purely my opinion ) that next Month's results are going to be disappointing. There are just too many negatives compounding each other. As regards a dividend , TCG would be better off not paying one ( I believe it is 50/50 whether they will or won't ) and using any “spare" money to pay off part of their huge debt and cement a better foundation in going forward into the medium/long term.
I suspect that the results will be as expected per third quarter trading announcement. I fear that winter bookings in the UK may have slowed given the fall in the pound which make spending abroad much more expensive which will be unwelcome news I still expect that a dividend will be declared. Of importance is the outlook for the coming year and hopefully all the previously announced initiatives will have a positive effect and that spare capacity from Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia as been reassigned to alternative profitable markets. Fusion and Standard life recent share buying make me feel that they have confidence in the company eventually hitting the numbers. It still needs the overcapacity in the market Condor operates to be addressed and I would like to see some announcement in this regard…. but this is TCG and therefore anything can happen and probably will
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