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Share Views Episode 9 - Early Stage Investment Opportunities


Serica Share Chat (SQZ)



Share Price: 15.625Bid: 15.25Ask: 16.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Serica
Spread: 0.75Spread as %: 4.92%Open: 15.625High: 15.625Low: 15.625Yesterday’s Close: 15.625


Share Discussion for Serica


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deeko
Posts: 695
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:15.75
Lets hope we
Fri 13:46
 
deeko
Posts: 695
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:15.00
RE: Interims
16 Sep '16
Nice find only. I recall reading a RNS from SQZ stating Lomond and Sheerwater remain preferential options(?). But I belive this was being explored for Lomond too, either way nice to have a bigger player on side

A quick google of the Arran field turned up this statement.

The Arran field (formerly Barbara-Phyllis) is located in the East Central Graben (blocks 23/11, 23/16b and 23/16c). Since April 2013 the Arran group have been working to develop a revised development scheme for the field. Current studies are focused on a 3 well subsea development tied back to the Shearwater Platform. Detailed engineering studies are in progress to confirm the technical and commercial viability of this option and are expected to be complete mid-2015. In parallel the Arran group are working with other nearby undeveloped field owners to identify potential development synergies which could better secure an economically viable development. Earliest development sanction would be late 2016.

https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/eng/fox/path/PATH_REPORTS/current-projects?PATH_OPERATOR_ID=109

CHECK THE DATE IT WAS LAST UPDATED! 2nd September 2016
Only
Posts: 1,875
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:15.00
RE: Interims
15 Sep '16
Just thinking a bit more about Dana's Three Field Plan ( ie, Arran / Columbus / Erskine ) . . .

As Dana are doing this planning, etc, at the behest of the OGA, Dana would have to come up with some pretty solid reasons why they *couldn't* do it.

Now that the ownership of Columbus has been simplified, it appears to me that production from Columbus is more of a "when" rather than an "if".

Serica is a pretty sound investment yet speculative too --- downside seems protected whilst the upside is looking quite juicy.
Only
Posts: 1,875
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:15.00
RE: Interims
15 Sep '16
Hi Deeko, Hi Maverick,

I was just reading about Serica on a less well-used bulletin board and spotted this post from 17th July 2016 by "BuySel".

"Dana is leading a project, at the behest of the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), to develop a collaborative plan for three fields including the firm’s Arran gas discovery, the Columbus field operated by Serica Energy and Erskine, a producing field operated by Chevron."

www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/114772/114772/

This is great news. Hopefully a bit more about that in Serica's Interims this month.

I see Dana as a well-financed firm that will want to keep onside of the OGA and so will be getting on with this three field plan. But as Maverick says below, there are quite a few parties to line up for this - but it's underway in my opinion.

Just imagine what production from Columbus as well as Erskine will do for cash flow. I can also see Serica taking a small share in Arran and swopping out some of Columbus, but that's just simply a wild guess.
Maverick7
Posts: 21
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.75
RE: Interims
14 Sep '16
Deeko, totally agree with your analysis, this one we just need to accumulate until POO reverses, I wish they would progress Colombus a lot quicker though but they have multiple parties to discuss with which slows progress
deeko
Posts: 695
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.75
RE: Interims
14 Sep '16
Only, I agree its certainly not the £26 mill mcap it was three months ago, but I also see this as a bargain in its own right based on money actually coming in, each month is another $2.4 million dollars in our bank, tax break in the north sea and tax wright offs from losses, we have capability of 4500 bopd maxing out at 5000 bopd the only limiting factor is the forties pipeline. Bonus ball... less than $20 dollars per barrel, there are many companies out there producing less than 1k bopd with mcaps in the 20-30 mill range with recovery costs in the 20-30s and companies with huge reserves but the fields will cost $100's millions in capex to develop. SQZ in my book still constitutes a bargain

Maverick, I'm not anticipating huge gains because we have had the BP payment tranche just gone which might offset gains made since online and the field was off-line for some time although the company state they have very low operating costs, but any increase will be fine as long as its healthy.

ATB
Maverick7
Posts: 21
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.75
RE: Interims
14 Sep '16
With Erskine having been shut for a while due to "pig" issues its going to impact on finances, but certainly one to accumulate in a low oil environment, if Namibian licence ever gets drilled it will be happy days
Only
Posts: 1,875
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.50
RE: Interims
14 Sep '16
Cleary, Serica is not the bargain it once was but with the cash accumulating, possibilities in the North Sea, clearing the Columbus logjam and a number of carried wells over the next year or two, Serica is a good place for reasonable sums of speculative money.
deeko
Posts: 695
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.50
RE: Interims
14 Sep '16
Hoping your right on the Columbus front Only. I'm also banking on an acquisition before year end, was reading an interesting article (cant remember where) but an industry insider was claiming that over 90% of north sea assets are quietly up for sale at present, we'll find out soon enough no doubt but at this price I'm going to be purchasing more and more of these.
Only
Posts: 1,875
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.50
RE: Interims
14 Sep '16
I reckon we'll start to see progress on Columbus.

I wouldn't be surprised at some kind of Erskinesque cash-generating acquistion before the end of the year.




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