From what I can see (to date) the market has not reacted to the proposed deal at all. The deal was first proposed on the 19th of Jan SP on the day was 69p and bounced around that level until the Prelim volume estimate RNS on the 1st of Feb at which time the SP rose to its current level. On the 20th of Feb an update on the deal was issued and the SP has changed very little up to close of play today. So in my honest opinion the market either view this deal as Status Quo (which it is not it is a very good deal for us) or it is not priced in as I have sais AIMOHO
That's not how markets work I am afraid. They don't wait for the day shares are issued to price in. They discount ahead, on the basis of probability of the vote going through (very high) and impact of the deal (30% accretive.) Market has taken it into account, and imo there won't be a big sell off as it won't be a surprise and not one of the new shares will be sold for a minimum of 365 days post issue.
sorry OGIF deal not priced in as no extra shares issued as yet. Market will only react when the deal has been approved and shares issued. I expect the SP to take a hit at this point, but long term will not be an issue. I for one will take advantage in any drop in the SP to top up.
Surely the market has already priced in the OGIF deal. We all know the statistics of this deal, and we all know its going through since it is a cracking deal, so there are no surprises. The market has had plenty of time to digest the facts. I see very little chance of a negative impact now. I think any negativity was priced in with the response to the RNS. Ultimately, if youre holding until the liquidity event then the response to finalisation of the deal makes no difference.
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