As Led says nothing JP/SOU say will close the gap between SP and NAV. It really does come down to a CPR done by a 3rd party after TE-8 has been tested. I only differ from his opinion in that I cannot see there being a 'suspension' (that's just an Australian thing). If it is good news then it will likely rise over the days before its release (and vice versa).
PNE: The way I'm reading this, is that JP and Luca can maintain the momentum of the Tendrara drilling news, with ongoing updates and conference calls, with "10 TCF don't cut it", type statements, but at the end of the day it is all down to a formal CPR to assess the potential value of the asset. IMO the sp will trade at a significant discount to the expected number of TCF x £1 until, the CPR is completed. During the CPR process I would expect we would be suspended if all info is going in the right direction, as there would be IMO, a significant re-rate on its release. When the CPR is commissioned is down to number of factors, even after the successful conclusion of TE8, (are more wells required? etc), so regarding timelines, who knows??
This is my first post on here although I am a silent investor in Sound. Have had a few shares for quite some time but found myself topping up regularly recently due to the quality information coming from you guys and your enthusiasm and passion for the company. I read the RNS and form my own opinions on trade direction but your info provides protection to it. Many thanks to you all and keep the opinions and updates rolling in.
Mooncheese - good point you make about a higher price on potential buyout, I suppose the other thing that will push us nearer to 1TCF = £1 would be production (if we ever get that far) that would be 2 years off at least but I would be quite happy to wait around if I thought the price would double.
PNE - just guessing, but hypothetically if we hit 80 tcf then the share price is not going to stay at £5 for long. In other words, the share price will eventually catch up with the fundamentals, the tcf being discovered driving the long term share price. The point at which it will have to definitely catch up is when bids for the company come in. Thus, on 1st April, if there is a likely bid due, then if James announces 10tcf, the share price might be around £8+; if no bid due, then it might be a tardy £5. Just my guess how this will pan out. Watch for the buy out. M.
Charlotte: Interesting find with a good connection, but from memory didn't JP suggest at the Shard that any deal would be for a producing asset. I think a figure of 3000 boepd was mentioned. All from memory so I may be wrong.
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