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Sylvania Pl Share Chat (SLP)



Share Price: 14.25Bid: 14.00Ask: 14.50Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Sylvania Pl
Spread: 0.50Spread as %: 3.57%Open: 14.25High: 14.25Low: 14.00Yesterday’s Close: 14.25


Share Discussion for Sylvania Pl


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ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 355
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Mon 13:24
I think you're right, at current prices Feb EBITDA looking to well over $2m. I still haven't updated my model for Phoenix as I£d like to see a quarter of results first. The cash margin is lower than SDO but still yielding healthy margins of at least $300/oz. Based on 8000ozpa that£s $2.4m pa EBITDA. At current prices that gives an IRR of 40% and 2 year payback. At $300/oz this still gives 25% IRR. The more I look into the better value Echo seems (if the cash costs stack up)
 
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,847
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Sun 12:46
ragnar - Point well made about the % of revenue increasingly coming from Pd and Rh now with the market prices rising much faster than Pt.

We've yet to see Phoenix results added to the mix but assuming they are a same basket ratio I'd expect EBITDA to come in way above $2 million per month. It should be at that level for the Q2 results we are due in the next week or two as we turned $5.5 million EBITDA on 16,589 ounces and a basket price of just $1,028/oz.

I'm thinking with production increases as scheduled and the basket priced the way it is we will be turning more than $2.5 million EBITDA each month. By the time Q4 results are released it could well be $3 million EBITDA every month! :)

Palladium£s global market deficit is on track to reach 1.8 million ounces in 2018, up from 1.2 million this year according to Anton Berlin, head of strategic marketing at NN, that's a 50% increase in the annual deficit!
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,847
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Sun 12:24
Wuffle - Norilsk are acting for the benefit of the major shareholders of course but their decision to buy physical palladium at market prices despite their quarterly output was a short term fix for shoring up supplies. By positioning themselves in the manner they have done they hold a stronger bargaining chip in the event of further panic buying believe the Russian state backed banks among other supplies are offloading supplies to Norilsk still, given the demand for palladium stockpiles. They aren't stockpiling these purchases according to recent NY Times and Reuter articles but then this course of action allows them to stockpile some of their own mined inventory.
ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 355
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Sat 13:15
What I call panic buying others might call speculators' FOMO. There were two times when the Pd price surged like this over the last 12 months (June 9, Sep 1). They were both followed by quick month long corrections before resuming the upward trend. It will be interesting to see what happens this time as it seems fundamentals have significantly tightened over the last 6 months and, like BTC, everyone will be looking to buy on weakness.

Pd touched a record high of $1126 in a perfect storm of USD weakness and tight supply. At Friday closing prices SLP derives 44% of revenue from Pd/Rh. In Q317 it was 33% and in Q316 it was 28%. At this basket we are banking $2m EBITDA/mth, double Q317. Remarkable
Wuffle
Posts: 656
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Sat 11:01
A quick look at what bitcoin did with finite supply (and utterly artificial need) and it would not be a giant leap to see the same conditions in Pgm - only with genuine, legally mandated need by vehicle producers.
Just bring up a long term chart for any pgm, they all exhibit the same.
Norilsk are not doing this for the benefit of the customer and the example will not be lost on others.
As the big contributor to the basket, any sniff of this with plat and Slp are off to the races.
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,847
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Sat 03:20
USD weakness certainly contributing to what was a crazy day for commodities. Palladium up more than 4% closing at $1119/oz
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,847
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Fri 18:17
ragnar - It's interesting you term it panic buying and other commentators call it speculative investing. I can't be sure what's driving people to buy, but it appears to be an ongoing trend and shows no sign of slowing. Palladium up more than 10% in the past month alone! Think we are seeing speculators sweeping up additional supply but that would be a short term thing normally and doesn't explain why there has been constant growth in the price since January 2016. This looks very much like large dealers shoring up supplies for customers. We know this was the reasons Norilsk Nickel began buying additional palladium on the market and I think others have caught on or are speculating because demand is strong.
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,847
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Fri 18:05
Strong finish but even after UK markets have closed palladium has continued to march on to $1112 (3.3% up today)
ragnarlothbrok
Posts: 355
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: 14p about to break
Fri 16:17
And Pt at $1000. Rumours flying of big deficits in the PGM market, particularly Pd. Industrial users are concerned about availability and price and starting to contemplate changing their production processes to substitute Pt for Pd.

There seems to be some panic buying at the moment, the charts are sizzling
longtomsilver
Posts: 32
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:14.25
All the charts.
Fri 15:09
All the charts are pointing in one direction and one direction only and that’s up! A long overdue re-rate coming soon for sure. I may have to break my own rules and take out my original stake at 16.5p (100% profit - not counting my chickens) and leave half invested. I’m bullish on PGMs and a 10%-20% increase in the basket would make 23-25p a feasible target price.




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