I have already posted who I think is sniffing g tyk2. I wish to add the above. Some similarities to prornai ( cash rich. Trading at less than cash. Recent failireb in LUPUS). Researched them yesterday and stupidly didn't follow my gut. Bouloved 62 % today. Add to the mix. To achieve value we need several potential bidders. Tick many many boxes
Just done a quick calc on Tim and John's total share options if there was a total buy out. It always intrigues me why they are so precise on the number of options and the cost. Tim and John's options are exactly the same, as you would expect. For them to walk away with £5 million each, after paying the option price and CGT the buyout would be exactly £400 million. The new Guy would walk away with a cool £1 million. I am thinking like others on here, that news is close, maybe they had to get these options past by Xmas to ensure all the rewards are neat and tidy. GLA.
I think I would share their lack of appetite. To have as you say 200 to 700 million on the table as a potential buyout, or have anywhere from 5 to 10 years of hard slog achieving both results and failures as they go through the clinical stages, providing backup paperwork / supporting research and then arguing for those much needed milestone payments. The first option seems a much easier route to future happiness to me.
The guys are not getting any younger, could this be the reason for the directors loading up on shares now as they share this view to ??
For me, everything points to a buyout. I really don't think Tim and the board have the appetite to take this company to a billion pound valuation. It could easily be in 6 months. Just imagine positive early results from chk1, tyk2 being tweaked to be even more selective and Aurora fully overcoming the current challenges. A potential multi billion pound company could quite easily be bought for a fraction if that price. 10p for 260 million or 30p for less than 800 million.
Although the crux of the article is about the trend for the huge sums agreed as part of the signed deal very rarely arriving, the flip side is that a number of the deals done on early stage drugs potentially can be bigger than normal.
I'm not suggesting that in the near future Darwin won't be bought out but for people to suggest within 6months approx without any foundation is simply ridiculous. Sorry but I can't buy that. Also it took 5yrs for chk1 to get a deal, not a great example if u want to get tyk2 deal is it?
Its things like that in a local magazine that confirms I'm invested in a well thought out company... It may not feel like it at times, especially after the share price dropping how it has of late after our licence deal, but its not a one trick pony and the guys at the top have a game plan...
"There are organisations which run networking events - they are like three days of speed-dating and we attend two or three a year. Companies like ProNAi turn up looking for companies like us, and I knew them from a previous incarnation"
(So they are being very proactive by the sounds of it.... )
"The plan is to increase the pipeline and reach, have three or four programmes in the clinic, and more staff, plus several licensing deals under our belt."
"It may be that one of those milestone payments will be worth much more than the value of the company, and then it would be a no-brainer for the licensee to acquire us"
Hi Mr Jay, can't give you links, but when i read up on the net there is a lot of trials dropping like flies and failing. Or not great results as predicted. Tyk2 etc. is similar to these products and is still going strong. Results seem good or better than our competitors. If they ( the big Pharma's) started their research again they would be lagging behind in the race. Plus they could use our compounds to mix with theirs to improve their results. The cheapest way and quickest way forward for them would be to buy us out IMHO. and have sole benefit, and employ Tim and his team as consultants......in an ideal world.
I may be miles off but that's my opinion only, right or wrong...........however, i'm still p155ed off at the timing of their nice little wage rise.
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