It's quite apparent that currently this share is under valued. Even if u ignore all the royalties as that could be abit of a way off yet. In the next 12months this cash will lost likely be landing on their desk. Even if u want to say it fails and they only make it half way that 44million plus the 2.5million upfront. That's more than our market cap. We then have 3 other items which may or may no have success but we own more of them. Now people are saying 5.1% chance of success (but we have a deal on one so that massively bumps the chance of that one as they won't hand out money and say it's best in the class if it wasn't). But with 3 others at a 5% chance aswell, all u need is one and currently looks like we have it already. But anyway I am ramberling, fact is on expectation this should be alot higher. I don't think there will be a takeover until its closer to the end remember the top firms have a huge amount of cash to spend. But biotechnology is undervalued as a whole atm and some of the big boys have been poaching recently. Anyway SAR is simply shaking the weak, let her find the bottom and she will go straight back up, the buying is still there and the word is still spreading and hype beginning, each hit of news will convince more. Like many I jumped in and am down now but selling now...... Well I may be able to get back in and collect a few more shares or I may get burnt massively if she rockets randomly which aim does alot. If ur in just log off and only check the board velvety now and then. Till the sp hits 2p there's nothing to get interested about. I feel fair value is around 4p atm, but it will be well up to that level before Christmas so just wait and u will make huge profits.
SAR has 2645 million shares in issue. With this deal only, it gets around 2.5 million pounds as upfront payments and return of unspent research costs. That makes the share price value equivalent of 0.094 p per share. Then come the 88.4 million pounds of milestone payments, mostly expected within 12 months. That should add another 3.342 p to the share price which means the share should be valued 4.287 p. Next are the 10 % royalties from 200 billion market. That could add another 7.56 p to share price which should then be 11.85 p only after this deal. Very surprisingly it is trading at 1.2 p almost 1/10th of its value. This is beyond my understanding. Probably the people are not convinced at heart that this could be really true or what?? Or is it that SAR has historically not lived up to the previous surges and people are nervous to commit. Whatever it is, one way or the other, sooner or later, the company market cap has to be revalued and it would be circa 100 million plus. Please note, SLN with a market cap in that range is trading at 118p Do your own math please.
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