Actually if you paid attention you will have noticed that I have not posted any charts for some time as they are not reliable in a low volume volatile market. The big difference between me and others is I wont switch my position to suit a trading position. I post positives because there are enough already posting the negatives but that does not mean I am oblivious or blinkered to them.
It seems that some just called the bearish pattern wrong this time:
Market Outlook: It was definitely a day of high anxiety for shorts watching the sudden bullish move. The bulls now have the upper hand in the market. This bullish enthusiasm caught us off guard without the forewarning of a bullish pattern. Our previous SHORT signal didn't work out. This happens. Sometimes, candlestick patterns falter. We owe you an apology for that, but this is exactly what we have the stop loss mechanism for. The bullish stop loss of the last bearish pattern is triggered today.
Good to see the company strengthening its trading policy with regard to insider dealing. Also another expiry of options, 476,190 this time. Small amounts maybe but they are all shares that would count towards our overall volume.
�Current spare capacity is confined mainly to Saudi Arabia and we believe that the prospects for capacity growth elsewhere within Opec are limited � indeed some of the more peripheral producers (including Venezuela, Algeria and Ecuador) are likely to see output decline this year."
Oil prices have fallen to a three-month low, hit by rising concerns that a global oversupply of both crude and natural gas will dampen prices.
US oil fell 2.4% to $43.11 (�32.72) a barrel, its lowest level since April, meaning it has now fallen by 12% so far this month.
Brent crude dropped 2.1% to $44.75, its lowest level since 10 May.
Shares in oil and firms also lost ground, with Exxon Mobil shares down 1.8% and Chevron down 2.6%.
"Crude oil markets have been under pressure as oil supplies have started growing with the resumption of output from the capacity lost due to wildfires in the Canadian oil sands," said EY energy analyst Sanjeev Gupta.
Data from market intelligence firm Genscape also suggested US production had increased.
Inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery base rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week to 22 July.
"Supply continues to return from disruptions, refined products are severely oversupplied, crude demand is falling well short of product demand, and key product demand is decelerating," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
On Friday, data showed the amount of US oil and gas extraction points had increased for the fourth week in a row.
The slump in prices from as high as $115 per barrel in 2014 led many shale oil producers to cut the number of rigs as producing oil was no longer profitable.
But despite a decrease in American crude supplies over the past year, there are still large stocks of gasoline in the country, even as the US hits its summer driving peak.
RRL will need to transform from a recovery stock to a fully operational stock before we find out what the markets consider to be fair value for RRL shares. Until then they will be subject to a lot of volatility due to the continuing uncertainty in the timing of the recovery and the trading games.
At the moment we have to be patient and recognise that the BOD have to do a balancing act until the water flood production comes on stream. They need to be seen to be actively drilling to keep the Trinidad Government happy whilst ensuring that they do not over extend themselves. Good cost management is essential.
Once the cash flow increases RRL will be able to ramp up the drilling campaign to increase production and proven reserves.
Of course the fact that they are using water flood will have the natural effect of increasing recoveries of all the reserves by 15% or more over all their proven oil fields.
Rather than guessing share price projections I prefer to wait and see what actually happens.
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