Not sure on the repeated sales on these products. If some-one is going to the effort to make there own bread/cake then they must be able to buy the ingredients themselves. A cookbook will give more range than 12 product. If PFD could get Nigella to put her name to products then things would definitely get interesting.
A leading City analyst has described the turnaround in revenue at Premier Food as “no mean feat” given the challenging FMCG climate. Investec’s Nicola Mallard said that Premier’s recently revealed first-half results, where group ebitda for was up 9.2% from £53.4m to £58.3m, had “provided evidence that the plan to reinvigorate its brands is starting to bear fruit”. She said: “Where the group has invested, to date, there was clear evidence of revenue growth. After a better 2Q performance, undistorted by a moving Easter, the group delivered modest (0.4%) 1H top line growth.” In its recent update Premier said it Sweet Treats division had seen 0.8% growth from £93.1m to £93.8m for the 26 weeks to 3 October 2015. And it revealed that its branded sweet treat sales, which include Mr Kipling ambient cakes, had seen a 54.2% increase in profitability to £7.4m, despite sales being down by 1.3% to £80.4m. Chief executive Gavin Darby said: “ The industry backdrop remains challenging, but with strategies which are delivering tangible results and significantly higher marketing spend planned for the second half, our profit expectations for the year remain unchanged.“ Mallard added: “It would be dangerous to extrapolate too much from a single quarter, but with plans for further investment in the group’s seasonally important Q3, we expect to see a continuation of this positive trend in 2H. The group is confident enough to reinstate guidance for branded revenue growth of +1-2% for FY17. We anticipate some modest revenue growth in FY16E on a like-for-like basis.”
Agree that things have been disappointing this week, but the plus is the large buys we have seen after hours. However, you think a peak of £1 is more likely which is reasonable, in the circumstances, but anything can happen. In respect of the days of £1.85, people fail to point out that if there had not been a rights issue on the horizon, we could have carried on moving up to who knows?. It must be appreciated that Gavin Darby said ''there will be no rights issue until at least 2015 and we will only carry one out from a position of strength'' This is why I never sold at £1.85!!!! In April 2012 at 18p it was suggested these may rise to 30p(£3), If there was no rights issue, no supermarket wars, pension/debt/Hovis sorted, we may have seen £4. A crude and silly way of looking at this is to say with 3 times as many shares in circulation, an adjustment can be made.
IMO what the update did was put Premier under scrutiny, take it out of the avoid category and into see how it goes...
We talk of the days of 185, but the subsequent fall has likely made investors very wary of a repeat and as such, this is why I feel the price is still so low, that reluctance to get burned again. Personally if we see a lift of this nature again (which is possibly) it would likely be permanent but peak nearer 100 rather than 150.
I agree with the views, that as we approach Jan update, we should get a lift in price as some buy ahead of the update, the update should be positive - we have NPD (I've been promised some as soon as they start production runs of the Ambrosia :)) and the Commercial team on the back of their collaborative status with some of the retailers should have negotiated a stronger presence in Off-shelf space - which coupled with a cold (fingers crossed) winter should drive sales.
we also have a potential halo benefit if the main retailers can actually report some growth, recent IGD data has convenience still in growth (so why Morrisons exited the sector is unfathomable), the supermarket sector cant continue to contract (and IMO is down to strategy changes - EDLP v Promotion lead to drive value rather than volume - but we should be annualising now) This weekend some trips to see how the Xmas package looks in the big 4.
If year end (c April) demonstrates a third positive update (with a good £50m of the debt) - that's when we should see a real lift - that said we are rather undervalued so I'm sitting on my stake rather than make my pot work elsewhere as we could see movement to a more appropriate level anytime and missing the boat would mean I never recover my loses :().
Confidence in the business is the fundamental issue - but it does means its cheap (in my in un-qualified opinion)
Still hope for 50p before year end - but I'm in Premier based on feeling rather than the cold hard numbers and am very much a novice.
We have seen these for weeks now, massive buys, who is selling though, we are talking millions of shares and someone surely has to be selling for this amount to be traded. If not we would have seen a big rise in the SP?
can't really blame the management and certainly not Gavin Darby!!! To be honest, GD ''hasn't put a foot wrong'' The shares have fallen from £1.85 because of the rights issue, supermarket wars and Aldi etc. I still feel we will get a SP increase to receive the Jan update, PF did very well in a hard environment.
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