Credit where credit is due, you are an asset to this BB when you "come out of your shell" and post a " conspiracy theory". The BB is better off with any "conspiracy theory" than none one at all!!! I disagree with your "theory"" and feel there will not be an outright takeover of PF for a while, I hope I'm wrong. However, I can see Nissan buying up close to the 30% threshold, which may see the SP hit at least the value a Mc Cormick price would have gone through in March 2016. It is reasonable to suggest the price analysts at the time suggested 75p. As for an outright bid from Mc Cormick, think with Nissan owning 20%, along with Apollo, this is all but over.
Lets take this cynical view a bit further to see if the jigsaw puzzle fits with Darby's actions over the last 2 years.
Darby has said he has been discussing the partnership with Nissin for a while, in secret from shareholders, assume this has been taking place for over 2 years, around the same period sweet treats and grocery divided up.
Say, as you have suggested Nissin only wanted the grocery division. Darby makes a deal where he would take sweet treats business private with his friends in the city for example Warburg Pincus ( hypothetically speaking of cause)
Grocery division would then need to be made as cheap as possible by issuing profit warning after profit warning at the same time making sure the blame was elsewhere such as weather.
McCormick spoils the plan by the offer after the warning in January, initially this is kept quite until the second offer where it had to be declared as PFD is a public company with Shareholders.
Darby gets the gang together to kill the offer, which worked by WP selling nissin the 17% and now wants to make sure the company value is as cheap as possible and shareholders feel grateful they are getting something at least.
Grocery business could be sold with the debt and pension scheme as it has over 110m profit, sweats business without debt would be free to grow fast, especially in the US.
Nissin initially buys all of PFD as cheap as it could be made and then sells the sweet business to ???
Oasis being the business to acquire enough shares to prevent anybody else bidding.
I know this is all FICTION, but does sound great for a novel.
Bistolover, very cynical but I have to admit there may be some truth in your analysis. I do find it very strange that they release such a poor performance in grocery due to the weather, which wasnt exactly sweltering and as you have already pointed out, international sales are reported in grocery. Apart from mccormcik, I,also think that Nissin may be wanting to buy the grocery division outright to gain a foothold in UK - poor results would leave the shareholders grateful that he has landed a below par deal. Nissin must be their no1 client for knighton, which is a purely B2B business now. A lot more to the Nissin deal than meets the eye. International needs to show bigger deals or revenues. At the end of last year the divison went from 9 to 28 employees, so there must be some new and big contracts to be announced soon. We acn be v confident in sweet treats division, which will continue to grow through their "cake on the go" strategy within convenience.
a better reflection of current situation than what is coming from the core group of the Darby lovers fan club. Lets look at some Darby's unexpected trading warnings that was out of his control which are so inconsistent.
3 months ending Sept 2013. Very hot summer, total sales down 3.3%, grocery power brands up 2%, following year 2014 which was colder and wetter summer power brands down another 5.1%
So now again after 2 years of so called innovation and introducing warm weather products, another hot summer and key grocery sales tumbled 13%
The only consistency that comes out of Darby's mouth is that it is NEVER NEVER his fault. The other consistency is the constant warnings after warnings, resulting in more debt build up, which will kill the share price as it is so over leveraged. The banks are lining up to make a killing in fees in the near future which will be passed to long suffering shareholder.
This warning is very suspicious with the timing of the end of the 6 month period where McCormick could bid again. Was this engineered by Darby to make the warning as bad as possible to stop another bid as he can't convince his favored option Nissin yet.
The chairman needs to go now together with Darby and the company put up for Sale.
This share is one I would happily have not invested in, in April 2011 but such is life for many investors. I think we are in for another difficult period and I have simply' parked' these shares . The sell off by Clark and Co did no favours for the company especially Quorn which now takes five freezer compartments both top and bottom at Sainsbury in Leamington instead of two. I've mentioned before my disgust at Clarks departure claiming to have completed his task?. This seemed to amount to selling off various lines with no appreciable difference to the debt. The future with Brexit is uncertainty over cost's , Own brand products continuing to appear on shelves and borrowing costs may start to rise. Tesco v Unilever is a warning that cost margins are going to be squeezed, AGAIN. In all a very difficult environment to turnaround a company in this field. Good news that International Sales are climbing ...a good move by GD especially with a low pound exchange rate . On balance I'd still stick with GD but my opposition to a takeover has gone. I'll take a write down on my shares and salvage what I can. A few years back I'd might have been left with 'nought'.
Thanks Mk.The key to share prices is they seldom represent the current, but more the future. On that basis there's only one way the Sp can go from here, that is up. I think GD has got to have some ace up his sleeve, as we cannot celebrate the MC anniversary, below 65P!!!
Al Bentley October 21, 2016 Based on the latest analyst predictions Premier Foods plc (LSE:PFD) is estimated to decline its earnings -81.7% over the next year. What are the important facts you need to know? Today I will look at the latest data and investigate into the future of this stock in more detail. Check out our latest analysis for Premier Foods How is PFD going to perform in the future?
Shareholders in Premier Foods are potentially in for a turbulent ride over the next 3-5 years. Earnings are predicted to drop rapidly from the last 2 April 2016 update to £0.02 levels. According to the analysts covering the stock that would be a drop of -59.8%. Doesn’t sound very good to me.
In the same period we will see the revenue grow from £771 Million to £838 Million in 2019 and profits (net income) are predicted to grow from £29 M to £75 M in 2019, roughly growing 2.6x. Margins are predicted to be quite acceptable at 9% during this time as well.
Is there any basis for growth?
Premier Foods has grown its earnings faster than the Food and Beverage industry average but that itself is not a very big accomplishment seeing as the industry has been struggling in the past year.
Premier Foods’s Return on Equity of 4.9% leaves a lot of be desired and to make things worse this is below the average industry of 41.45%. The good news is that a slight improvement is on the cards with the level in a couple years rising to 8.7%. LSE-PFD-future-perf-Fri-Oct-21-2016
Return on equity (ROE) is a measure of how much profit (net income) a company makes as a percentage of the shareholders equity. Equity is made up of funds from the original issuing of shares and any retained earnings from previous financial years. It varies considerably across sectors, for this reason it is important to asses a stocks ROE relative to its industry. Whilst it is true that the higher the ROE the better the company is performing, ROE does have a weakness. A stock with a disproportionate amount of debt can lead to a small equity base. Thus, a small amount of net income (the numerator) could still produce a high ROE off a modest equity base (the denominator). For this reason investors should always consider the debt situation in conjunction with ROE.
Premier Foods is having a few turbulent years in front of it but despite (or maybe because of) that it could still be offering an interesting investment opportunity. See our latest analysis to find out!
This does seem to be stagnating a little. But overall I'm more than impressed. The price is so low that there's only upside. I feel for the guys who are in at over a pound and have to wait for significant rises. But at under 50p this has to be worth a punt. Can't really understand the negativity Nissan are heavily invested.
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